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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Analysis, design and implementation of CRM solutions for selected company
Ilavský, Dávid ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Šedivá, Zuzana (referee)
Bachelor thesis focuses on the area of information systems, which are used to support customer relationship management in companies. The main objective of this work is to provide a sample of solution for CRM system implementation for real customer from the banking sector. The first part defines basic functional areas of any CRM application. Each of these areas is described in more detail in terms of its primary use and tasks that within the CRM as a whole performs. Further is described the analytical area of CRM application (or Customer Intelligence), which is gradually playing a key role in the entire CRM system in past few years. It includes its potential uses in various fields. At the end of the theoretical part, the author compares the fundamental differences between cloud model of deployment and traditional on-premise solution. The practical part focuses on the main objective of the thesis and description of the supplied solution in the form of a module, which extends the existing CRM application with the option for business partners registration of Hypoteční banka, a. s. and ČSOB Pojišťovna, centralized in one system. The requirement is build in Microsoft Dynamics CRM 2011 and as the source system it is used CRM system of Hypoteční banka, a. s..
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Marketing and communication strategy of Spotify streaming service
Petlach, Radim ; Postler, Milan (advisor) ; Průša, Přemysl (referee)
The objective of this Masters`s Thesis is an analysis of marketing and communication strategy of Spotify, the music streaming service, and subsequent presentation of proposals and recommendation with the aim to improve existing strategy. The thesis consists of theoretical and practical part. In the theoretical part, basic terms such as marketing, marketing mix, marketing and communication strategy, are defined. In the practical part, streaming service Spotify, its marketing and communication mix and competitors analysis, are described. A substantial part of this thesis is own market research in a form of a survey. Findings and results derived from primary and secondary sources help the author to draw conclusions and provide recommendation for improvement of existing marketing and communication strategy of Spotify in the Czech Republic.
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Psychometric characteristics of Youth Self-Report in clinical sample
Urbánek, Tomáš ; Čermák, Ivo ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Schmidtová, Jana
The paper deals with reliability and validity analyses of the Youth Self-Report questionnaire by Thomas M. Achenbach. It is a method comprising eleven subscales, mostly syndromes of pathological conduct of children and adolescents. The data were obtained from the psychiatric patients (girls) from 12 to 18 years, most of them were exposed to family violence and abuse. The analyses of internal consistency and correlation analyses supporting the empirical validity of scales were conducted.
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Height measurement in the northern area of mining areas Doubrava and Karviná Mines In 2016
Kajzar, Vlastimil ; Waclawik, Petr ; Staš, Lubomír
In the northern area of mining areas Doubrava and Karvina mines on the border RA Detmarovice and Doubrava are implemented, the mining activities. For this reason, in order to detect possible effects of the mine to the surface and surface objects twice a year height focuses, points in this area stable. From 2014 he was a contractor for these works chosen by the Institute of Geonics, v.v.i., Ostrava. In August and November 2016 survey conducted campaigns planned this year, during which it conducted a total of 4 highrise focus of inter-related leveling routes, which are formed by these points. Highrise points are stabilized in the area of interest in several ways - usually in steel design height marks on buildings, then as an iron bolt concreted in the ground or using nails driven into the concrete foundation or other alternative means. Distribution points in the area of interest is indicative captured in the map appendix. Existing trace and focus points are highlighted in green, yellow trace inaccessible points, refocused points in red and violet points that have occurred to their long term disablement or destruction. Each zaměřovaných points in order to trace the terrain carefully documented (GPS coordinates, photos, text description) and registered. These documents are available from the contractor.
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THE BACCHAE, FAUST AND LADYBIRDS
Závodský, Norbert ; NEBESKÝ, Jan (advisor) ; BURIAN, Jan (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on themes like the collapse of the myth of God, crisis of faith and seeking God, as well as on way to stage them in a theatrical performance. The first part of this work tries to depict changes in a relationship between a man and God and their mutual combat. The chapter dealing with the cult of Dionysus shows a clash of the two fanaticisms; the religious and the rational one. The Faust chapter is concerned with the idea of free decision making and the difficulties and the possibility of a personal crisis this freedom might cause. The final chapter The Ladybirds opens the problematic of suffering of the innocent, which is the most common objection against the existence of God. The practical part of this work reflects on the school projects and the process of making. It also asks whether it is possible to stage themes like faith in one of the most atheistic nations in the world.
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The proposal of the evaluation and the remuneration system
Vyskočilová, Dana ; Pilař, Ladislav (advisor) ; Barbora, Barbora (referee)
This thesis deals with system of employees evaluation and rewards in the given company. Based on the information gathered from the literature it summarizes basic concepts of employee's performance management, evaluation and rewards. The analysis was performed based on the existing situation of employees evaluation and rewards in companies, as well as based on qualitative research of employees satisfaction and motivation. As the outcome of this analysis and research, the new system of employees evaluation and rewards was drafted.
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Influence of meadow management on the migration behavior of selected species of butterflies
Bubová, Terezie ; Langrová, Iva (advisor) ; Farkač, Jan (referee)
Migrations are the key process and one of the basic biological features, which allow survival of endangered species in fragmented landscape. In the last decades, agriculture intensification, industry and urbanization caused that number of natural butterfly habitats has significantly decreased. The localities originally suitable for butterflies are currnetly converted to farmland or building plots. This PhD thesis aimed to find a compromise solution of meadow management, which should allow a commercial use and concurrently do not jeopardize the continued existence of endangered or threatened species. The main idea of this study was in the intentional emigration causing in the middle of flight period, which should lead into resettlement of the population to another (potentially more suitable) locality. Possibility of aimed manipulation with butterfly emigrations would be considered as a major breakthrough in their protection.
The investigated species Phengaris nausithous (Bergsträsser, 1779) and Phengaris teleius (Bergsträsser, 1779) are both considered to be flagship species for protection of European butterflies at open meadows. This study is based on research, which was carried out in 2013-2015 at 17 patch in localities Dolní Labe, Czech Republic. In above mentioned years, one selected meadow was mowed in the middle of flight season and the emigrations were then monitored using mark-release-recapture method. Results of population and migration characteristics were calculated in MARK 8.1 software. Subsequently, the effect of mowing on emigration (comparison of emigrations from the meadow before and after mowing) was evaluated using Statistica 13.
The hypotheses of this study were based on the assumption, that the loss of resources after well-timed mowing should increase the activity of adult butterflies. During the monitoring, number of emigrations was increased only in flight season 2015. Unfortunately, the statistical evaluation did not show significant effect of mowing on migrations. On the other hand, the hypothesis dealing with colonization of nearest meadows was confirmed.
Effect of intentional emigration caused by management interventions was unfortunately not proved. However, we found out, that even though the population at one mowed meadow decreased clearly, the metapopulation size at the locality remained more or less stable.
At investigated (mowed) meadow, there was observed a sharp decline of P. nausithous abundance. On the other hand, P. teleius population was only slightly reduced. It is therefore conceivable, that P. teleius are not as susceptible to innapropriate term of mowing. The results obtained in our research conclusively displayed no possible positive effect of mowing in the middle of flight season and a necessity of suitable management maintenance at localities inhabited by Phengaris butterflies.
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Individual human odor as a forensic trail in criminal proceeding made by contact or contactless transmission and its resistance to physical agents
Santariová, Milena ; Bartoš, Luděk (advisor) ; Chmelíková, Eva (referee)
The dissertation thesis consists of four papers that have been published in scientific journals.
Study n. 1
The need to recover evidence from water is quite common in criminal investigation. The article deals with the possibility to collect human scent from such objects and with the ability of specially trained dogs to match such scent samples with scent samples collected from detained suspects. During an experiment, designed as a blind one, it has been proved, that human scent can survive on submerged objects and can be later used for scent identification.
Study n. 2
To collect odors the Czech Republic Police use special fabric sorbents manufactured under the registered mark ARATEX. Before use the fabric sorbent is treated by water vapor sterilization. After the scent identification the sorbent is destroyed. The goal of the study was to verify if the vapor sterilization is effective enough to remove human scent that has already penetrated into the sorbent structure or in other words if the sorbent can be exposed to vapor sterilization and then used again. Specially trained dogs were used to match starting odors with target odors in the line-ups. The results showed that dogs are able to correctly match human odors even after they have being exposed to vapor sterilization.
Study n. 3
The purpose of the study was to determine the temperature at which the human scent is degraded so that a dog would not be able to identify it. In contrast to expectations, eight dogs used in the experiment almost flawlessly identified human scents from five scent donors exposed to temperatures of 100°C, 200°C, 300°C, 400°C, 500°C, 600°C, 700°C, and 800°C. Only two of the dogs were able to identify 5 of 15 scent samples exposed to 900°C. No dog identified a scent exposed to 1000°C. Our study verified heat survivability of human scent far beyond existing expectations.
Study n. 4
We tested the hypothesis that if odor fallout (the release of a human odor onto an untouched object) in human subjects exists, then holding a hand above an absorbent will produce a detectable scent which will be subsequently matched in a detection test by trained dogs. Scents were collected from seven males to sterile cotton absorbent squares. The left hand was used to get the control scent and the right hand served as the target scent. Each experimental subject was sitting and his left hand was laid down on a cotton square for 3 min. The right hand was held 5 cm above another cotton square for 3 min. The scent identification was done by two specially trained police German shepherds. Both dogs performed 14 line-ups and correctly matched the collected scents of all test subjects. The results suggest the existence of human odor fallout, whereby a human scent trace is left by humans even if they do not touch an object.
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The role of authority and form of partnership during creation of new choreographic dance piece
Radačovský, Mário ; KAZÁROVÁ, Helena (advisor) ; WIESNER, Daniel (referee)
In our dance life its very important that we meet time to time people who are so incredibly influencetial to us ether positive or negative ways. Some of them are able to influence us so much that we keep this impact which they have made on us for ever.Role of autority and partnership between these two elements is crucial.Its has impact on everyday of our working life.I ca not imagine what can happen if there is not existing somekind of form of partnership in the dance studio.To be dancer is very no simply just job .Is more ,its something truly special what not everyone can understand.The task of my work is to go back in my profesional past ,through out my own memories and profesional experiences to offer some situations when I truly felt presents of authority and partnership .Sometimes only autorithy .I this work Im trying to offer my small stories which I lived thourgh from my prospective and Im tring to analysed them through my own expierience of today.It always about something.We are creating because we want to say things.Journey is very important sometimes more then final outcome.
Now important during this journey is able to see how things are done how we comunicate them and autorities will appear .
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