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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Multicriteria games
Tichá, Michaela ; Dlouhý, Martin (advisor) ; Lachout, Petr (referee) ; Čičková, Zuzana (referee)
Theory of multicriteria games is a special field of game theory, when one or more players have at least two payoff functions and want to maximize simultaneously. The work introduces a number of new findings. It examined the concept of finding equilibria in pure strategies in noncooperative multicriteria game. It is possible to find all the equilibria in pure strategies by full search and solving two linear programs for each point. Furthermore, two linear programs are formulated for verifying that a selected point is the equilibrium of the game or not. In the noncooperative games is also introduced the concept that with knowledge of the equilibrium of bimatrix game determines preferences of the players. Although finding the equilibrium point of the bimatrix game is nonlinear problem, finding the preferences is linear problem. The latest findings in the noncooperative games is a generalization of the concept that solves multicriteria game by assigning weights to each criterion of each player. The work demonstrates that it may not be necessarily linear weights, but it can be more general function that describes the player's preference. The remaining part is devoted to knowledge in cooperative games. There is considered that the players know their preferences and are able to express them by weights. The game with known preferences is defined and solved with the use of bargaining theory. Then it is generalized to a case where players have more payoff functions, from which they can choose. Finally, the multicriteria case of voting game is defined. It is designed completely new concept, which selects the winning coalition in the voting game. This concept is then applied to the real situation after the elections to the Chamber of Deputies in 2013.
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How are high school students informed about virus biology
Solarová, Pavlína ; Drda Morávková, Alena (advisor) ; Fraiberk, Martin (referee)
Biology is the study of viruses, which are engaged in teaching 2-3 lessons. During those hours, students must not only absorb information about the structure and function of the virus, but also the reproduction of the organism, several representatives and, ultimately, diseases that cause that exists prevention and treatment these diseases. Students remember what it is for the vaccine, the virus infects whom, how they can get infected or what the immune system. What makes the problem of students are questions: which of the viral disease is, what constitutes a viral particle, or what is an infectious disease. In the RVP G is determined curriculum is very vaguely. The teacher thus has a certain freedom in creating the ŠVP and its preparations. To more precise what students should know for graduation, testing requirements used common catalog of the school-leaving examination in this case of biology, who has broken the outputs of the curriculum of all biological disciplines.
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Subsidy fraud in the Czech republic, their detection and legal lability
Štětka, Martin ; Pikola, Pavel (advisor)
My thesis titled ,,Subsidy frauds in the Czech Republic, their revealing and legal responsibility" in its theoretical part describes the legal framework of frauds and subsidy frauds in the Czech Republic. It pays attention in detail to particular Czech laws and compares them with other EU countries legislation.
In practical part of the thesis I have analysed particular criminal acts beig concentrated primarily on types of perpetrators, their motivation and modus operandi. That part of the thesis i also assessing present situation, legislation development and procedures followed by the authorities actice in criminal proceeding within period of time after the Czech Republic joined the EU.
As a conclusion I'm pointing out indispensability of legal responsibility and having a think about future legislation development and changes in actual wording of respektive laws.
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Visual preferences for wind turbines
Běťáková, Vendula ; Sklenička, Petr (advisor) ; Janečková, Kristina (referee)
This dissertation is a selection of three papers focused on visual preference of wind turbines. Visual impact presents the connectivity of the articles, whereas each one deals with the topic from different perspective. First paper "Wind turbines location: How many and how far?" analyses in detail the characteristics of wind turbines themselves, i.e. their number and distance from observer or vantage point in relation to landscape quality. Second paper "How education orientation affects attitudes toward wind energy and wind farms: implications for the planning process" concentrates on respondents´ characteristics, in particular educational orientation, general attitude, occurrence of WTs in respondents´ vicinity and willingness to live close to WTs. Whereas first two papers use same assessment method to analyse differences of WTs perception from different point of view, the third paper "Futuristic Wind Power Systems Suitable as Artistic Sculptures" presents review of WTs appearance in general and proposals of possible future look as an alternative to traditional wind turbines.
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Frequency stabilized semiconductor laser source for high-resolution interferometry
Řeřucha, Šimon ; Hucl, Václav ; Holá, Miroslava ; Čížek, Martin ; Pham, Minh Tuan ; Pravdová, Lenka ; Lazar, Josef ; Číp, Ondřej
We have assembled an experimental iodine stabilized Distributed Bragg Reflector (DBR) diode based laser system lasing at a wavelength that is in a close proximity to the wavelength of a stabilized He-Ne lasers traditionally used for metrological applications (λ=632.9 nm in vacuum). The aim was to verify whether such a system could be used as an alternative to the He-Ne laser while yielding wider optical frequency tuning range, higher output power and high frequency modulation capability. We have measured the basic characteristics of the laser source and then we have compared the performance of the laser system with that of a traditional frequency stabilized He-Ne laser with a series of experimental arrangements similar to those usually found in laser interferometry and displacement metrology applications. The results indicate that DBR diode laser system provides a good laser source for applications in dimensional (nano)metrology since it provides more output power and advanced tunability options than stabilized He-Ne lasers while maintaining fundamental requirements such as the frequency stability, coherence length and also a defined traceability.\n\n
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Noise, Transport and Structural Properties of High Energy Radiation Detectors Based on CdTe
Šik, Ondřej ; Lazar, Josef (referee) ; Navrátil, Vladislav (referee) ; Grmela, Lubomír (advisor)
Poptávka ze strany vesmírného výzkumu, zdravotnictví a bezpečnostního průmyslu způsobila v posledních letech zvýšený zájem o vývoj materiálů pro detekci a zobrazování vysokoenergetického záření. CdTe a jeho slitina CdZnTe. jsou polovodiče umožnují detekci záření o energiích v rozsahu 10 keV až 500 keV. Šířka zakázaného pásma u CdTe / CdZnTe je 1.46 -1.6 eV, což umožňuje produkci krystalů o vysoké rezistivitě (10^10-10^11 cm), která je dostačující pro použití CdTe / CdZnTe při pokojové teplotě. V mé práci byly zkoumány detektory CdTe/CdZnTe v různých stádiích jejich poruchovosti. Byly použity velmi kvalitní spektroskopické detektory, materiál s nižší rezistivitou a výraznou polarizací, detektory s asymetrií elektrických parametrů kontaktů a teplotně degenerované vzorky. Z výsledků analýzy nízkofrekvenčního šumu je patrný obecný závěr, že zvýšená koncentrace defektů způsobí změnu povahy původně monotónního spektra typu 1/f na spektrum s výrazným vlivem generačně-rekombinačních procesů. Další výrazná vlastnost degenerovaných detektorů a detektorů nižší kvality je nárůst spektrální hustoty šumu typu 1/f se vzrůstajícím napájecím napětí se směrnicí výrazně vyšší než 2. Strukturální a chemické analýzy poukázaly, že teplotní generace detektorů způsobuje difuzi kovu použitého při kontaktování a stopových prvků hlouběji do objemu krystalu. Část mé práce je věnována modifikaci povrchu svazkem argonových iontů a jejímu vlivu na chemické složení a morfologii povrchu.
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Security of Biometric Systems
Lodrová, Dana ; Busch, Christoph (referee) ; Provazník, Ivo (referee) ; Drahanský, Martin (advisor)
Hlavním přínosem této práce jsou dva nové přístupy pro zvýšení bezpečnosti biometrických systémů založených na rozpoznávání podle otisků prstů. První přístup je z oblasti testování živosti a znemožňuje použití různých typů falešných otisků prstů a jiných metod oklamání senzoru v průběhu procesu snímání otisků. Tento patentovaný přístup je založen na změně barvy a šířky papilárních linií vlivem přitlačení prstu na skleněný podklad. Výsledná jednotka pro testování živosti může být integrována do optických senzorů. Druhý přístup je z oblasti standardizace a zvyšuje bezpečnost a interoperabilitu procesů extrakce markantů a porovnání. Pro tyto účely jsem vytvořila metodologii, která stanovuje míry sémantické shody pro extraktory markantů otisků prstů. Markanty nalezené testovanými extraktory jsou porovnávány oproti Ground-Truth markantům získaným pomocí shlukování dat poskytnutých daktyloskopickými experty. Tato navrhovaná metodologie je zahrnuta v navrhovaném dodatku k normě ISO/IEC 29109-2 (Amd. 2 WD4).
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Green spaces in the city, their evolution and transformation on the example of Prague in 19th and 20th century
Kubecová, Barbora ; Klusáková, Luďa (advisor) ; Pokorná, Magdaléna (referee)
Green space is an essential part of the city urbanism. Research dedicated to development of the greenery and emergence of the first public parks contributes substantially to the understanding of urban issues and urban history. Green space has an aesthetic function, but is also a socially stratified space. Every city has its own unique greenery. It is not different in the case of Prague, whose dominant - Prague Castle creates unique linking of urban and green with Petřín and Malá Strana. The thesis "Green spaces in the city, their development and transformation on the example of Prague in the 19th and 20th century" aims to bring the historical development of Prague's greenery, especially the creation of public green space and point out the fact that people commonly accepted phenomenon of public parks was not always a matter of course. Development of green space, the struggle for its development and rescue, employed clubs, societies and individuals and has become one of the priorities for urban policy. Mainly the contemporary guides were used as a source for this work and for describing the emergence of the first public parks in the 19th century and the transformation of types of urban green areas. Other sources featured professional literature, contemporary book- published titles, memoirs, maps,...
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