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Identifikace finančních cyklů v eurozóně
Šmídová, Petra
Šmídová, P. Identification of financial cycles in euro area. Diploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2023. This diploma thesis examines financial cycles in euro area countries using wavelet analysis. This method has significant advantages compared to the methods presented in the theoretical part of the thesis. The wavelet analysis allows to investigate both the time and the frequency domain at the same time and does not work with the assumption of the frequencies in which the financial cycle should be located. Credit and house prices were used as indicators of financial cycles. Statistically significant cycles in credit and house prices for individual euro area countries were identified in a Continuous Wavelet Transform. In the second section of the empirical part, a Wavelet Coherence Analysis was performed in order to answer the question whether financial cycles in the euro area are synchronised. Based on the results obtained, recommendations for macroprudential policy makers were made
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PPI and CPI: What is the relationship?
Červený, David ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis examines the relationship between the PPI and the CPI in the Czech Republic and the euro area. The primary method used in this thesis is the Granger causality test. Granger causality between the price indices is tested for in a bivariate model and also conditional on other variables describing the development of real GDP, a given monetary aggregate and wages. The most apparent conclusion that can be drawn from the empirical results indicates that the PPI Granger-causes the CPI in the Czech Republic and that there is no Granger causality going from the CPI to the PPI in the euro area. These results are consistent with conventional economic theory, which suggests a pass-through effect in the production chain going from producer prices to consumer prices.
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Adoption of the Euro in the Czech Republic
KLÁSKOVÁ, Lucie
The bachelor's thesis introduces the issue of the theoretical adoption of the Euro in the Czech Republic to which the country was undertaken in the process of accession to the European Union in 2004. There is not fixed date for joining the Euro Area yet, despite meeting part of requirements in the past. The presumption of Euro acceptance is the government decision and to fulfil the criteria. The main aim is to give a detailed description of the process of the switching to the Euro Area with all economic and legal aspect. The thesis describes the history of the Economic and Monetary Union, its current situation, scenarios of adoption and national plan. There are answered the issues of when and how it will be the most profitable way to adopt the Euro and what are the main benefits and risks. In conclusion, there is described and analysed the process of fulfilment of the Maastricht convergence criteria and amendment arising from the transition to the single currency.
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ECB Monetary Policy: "One Size Doesn't Fit All" Problem and Its Impact on Credits Volume
Nedvěd, Petr ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
In this work, I analyse inappropriateness of single monetary policy in the euro area and its impact on credit growth for the oldest twelve euro members and a time period spanning 1999Q1-2013Q3. The inappropriateness is expressed by deviations of actual interest rate from Taylor rule prescriptions. The obtained results are in line with a majority of existing literature since they show that the ECB's single interest rate was the least suitable for the so called PIIGS countries prior to the recent economic crisis. The impact of the deviations on credit growth is estimated econometrically by dynamic panel data estimation. The findings confirm my hypothesis that the deviations from the Taylor rule have a significant positive effect on credits volume, i.e. the higher is the Taylor rule prescription above the actual rate, the higher is the credit growth.
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Position of the Federal Constitutional Court to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT program).
Trojanová, Justina ; Mlsna, Petr (advisor) ; Handl, Vladimír (referee)
This thesis titled The position of the Federal Constitutional Court to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT program) is dealing with the program of direct monetary transactions (OMT) and its compliance with EU primary law. It is the first time in history, when the German constitutional court submitted a question to the Court of Justice of the EU. The program was announced in 2012 as a program of unlimited purchases of government bonds. It has not been applied yet, but its very existence has helped to calm European markets and bond yields of states which are faced with financial problems. Large number of German politicians and economists stepped up against the program and shared the view that the program essentially requires that German taxpayers pay bills for other eurozone countries. It was also emphasized that this program clearly exceeds the mandate of the European Central Bank of maintaining price stability. This work includes logically arranged chapters, which include the creation of the euro zone, Greek debt crisis, subsequent rescue programs and solitude OMT program and judicial proceedings in relation to this program. The final section focuses first on the judgment of the European Court of Justice, which sets out important conditions for the possible application of the program in the...
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Intergovernmental Cooperation in Resolving the Eurozone Crisis
Nevola, Jan ; Havelka, Vít (advisor) ; Weiss, Tomáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on the topic of the Euro crisis intending to identify crisis- solving strategies. It considers the period between 2010 and 2012 during which several key measures were taken and new institutions were established to provide financial assistance to the Eurozone Member States. The work analyses the nature of these institutions and the decisions taken. The intention is to determine whether the steps that led to the protection of the Eurozone were predominantly intergovernmental-driven or whether the main drivers of the processes were supranational institutions. The introductory chapters explain the causes of the crisis, its institutional framework and highlight several views on solving the crisis as presented in the research of other authors. Furthermore, they introduce the theoretical-analytical framework based on the theories of intergovernmentalism, respectively liberal intergovernmentalism and neofunctionalism. The analytical part of the work, first, specifies the research methodology. Then, the discussion presents the findings of the research and confronts them with the research of other authors who analyzed this issue. The conclusion summarizes the work and draws on the results of the analysis to answer the research question that is defined in the introduction.
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Economic and legal aspects of euro adoption in the Czech Republic
NOVOTNÝ, Adam
The Czech Republic has committed itself to adopt the euro with joining the European union in 2004. Until today there has not been any political interest of setting the specific date of euro adoption due to low public approval. Currently, there is an increase of positive public opinion about euro so it is the right time to start an objective discussion. The thesis is divided into three parts. The First part describes the history and evolution of the European monetary union, Maastricht convergence criteria and the theory of optimal currency area. The second part presents possible economic benefits and costs of joining the monetary union. The third and the main part examines the real effects of euro adoption on sample of selected countries with similar characteristics. The impact of euro on main economic indicators was analysed and there has been carried out a comparison between these countries. Also the role of euro in trade of selected countries has been highlighted. Last but not least, the possible impact of euro on country competitivness has been analysed in the context of optimum currency area theory. It is expected that joining the monetary union leads to a boost of bilateral trade which harmonizes the economic cycles of trade partners. The main purpose of this part is to prove the increase of competitiveness of exporters gained from monetary union measured by the raise of the bilateral trade interconnection. Finally these two criteria - gross domestic product alignment and bilateral trade interconnection have been used to describe the suitability of Czech Republic as a candidate country for the European monetary union.
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Assessing Economic Linkages between the EU and the Eastern Europe Neighbours
Moisei, Daniela ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
Charles University Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies MASTER'S THESIS Assessing Economic Linkages between the EU and the Eastern Europe Neighbours Author: Bc. DanielaMoisei Supervisor: Prof. Roman Horváth, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2017/2018 Abstract The proposed study analyses the economic linkages between five Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Romania, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine) and the euro area, in the period 2006-2017, applying the block-restriction vector autoregression model. It allows evaluating the amplitude and persistence of the domestic vs. euro area shocks on four macroeconomic indicators: real GDP, short-term interest rate, CPI, and FX rate. The main findings emphasize that EU members are more economically synchronized with the euro area, responding to external factors in less than 10 months. Nevertheless, the Central Banks of the East European countries react extensively to the ECB monetary policy shocks, following broadly its short-term interest rate. Eastern Neighbourhood countries and Central EU members demonstrated tight connections with the euro area, in terms of international transmission of price shocks and economic activity synchronization. Thus, Czech Republic and Romania could be relevant models for the Eastern European countries, reaching...
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The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy of ECB on Housing Prices
Górecki, Vojtěch ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kučera, Adam (referee)
Thethesisexaminestherelationshipbetweentheunconventional monetary policyofECBandhousing markets. Weconducttheempiricalanalysison quarterlypaneldataconsistingofvariablesfromselectedeuroareacountries overtheperiod2007Q4-2017Q4. Theunconventional monetarypolicyis measuredwiththe Wu-XiaShadowrate. Thepanel VAR modelestimation providesonlyweakevidenceonthepositiveeffectoftheunconventionalmon- etarypolicyonhousingprices. Theevidenceonthe mortgageratesis more convincinginestimatingsignificantresponsethatspansovertwoyearswith peakatoneyearmark.Theresultsoftheindividualcountryanalysisindicate theheterogeneityofresponses,whiletheeffectislesssignificantincountries thatweremoreaffectedbythefinancialandsovereigndebtcrisis. JEL Classification C30,E00,R30, Keywords panel vector autoregression, unconventional monetarypolicy, ECB,housing market,euro area,shadowrate Author'se-mail vojtech.gorecki@gmail.com Supervisor'se-mail roman.horvath@fsv.cuni.cz
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