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Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis
Simpartl, Josef ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
This master's thesis provides a comprehensive meta-analysis inspecting the impact of military expenditures on economic growth. Its objective is to validate several hypotheses using a wide range of studies and the latest methods. The hypotheses included in this thesis are as follows. First, military expenditures reduce economic growth. Second, military expenditures retard growth in less- developed countries. Third, the effect of military expenditures on economic growth is non-linear. The general findings of this thesis support the first hypothesis. This result originates mainly from the significantly negative impact found in recent studies. The thesis also finds indirect evidence in favor of the second hypothesis. Even though the analysis did not find a significant impact on less-developed countries per se, a negative effect associated with African countries provides a persuasive substitute in this regard. Last, this thesis did not find any solid evidence in favor of the non-linearity hypothesis. This is the first time the effect of military expenditures on economic growth was analyzed using the latest methods of meta-analysis and provides robust input into a heated debate within the subfield of peace economics provoked by the recent events. 1
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The Effect of Financial Incentives on Vaccination Rates: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Slovakia
Kravec, Peter ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Votápková, Jana (referee)
This study examines the impact of financial incentives on vaccination against COVID-19. The researched intervention was provided to Slovak citizens who turned 60 by the end of 2021 at the latest. Depending on the order of the dose, they were paid a reward of €200 to €300. Using a regression discon- tinuity analysis with a control group of people who had been just below the bonus entitlement threshold, the result indicates a positive effect of incentives on vaccination rate in the group on the first, second and booster doses uptake. This incentive was paid to approximately 847,000 senior citizens at a total cost of €245 million. The number of people convinced can be estimated from 52,000 to 113,000. The number of saved lives may be estimated to range from 211 to 461. A comparison of benefits and the costs of the incentive indicates that the benefits did not exceed the costs. 1
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PPI and CPI: What is the relationship?
Červený, David ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis examines the relationship between the PPI and the CPI in the Czech Republic and the euro area. The primary method used in this thesis is the Granger causality test. Granger causality between the price indices is tested for in a bivariate model and also conditional on other variables describing the development of real GDP, a given monetary aggregate and wages. The most apparent conclusion that can be drawn from the empirical results indicates that the PPI Granger-causes the CPI in the Czech Republic and that there is no Granger causality going from the CPI to the PPI in the euro area. These results are consistent with conventional economic theory, which suggests a pass-through effect in the production chain going from producer prices to consumer prices.
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Essays in Behavioural and Experimental Economics
Matoušek, Jindřich ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Miklánek, Tomáš (referee) ; Rachinger, Heiko (referee) ; Gechert, Sebastian (referee)
CHARLES UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Institute of Economic Studies Essays in Behavioural and Experimental Economics Abstract for Dissertation thesis Author: Mgr. Jindřich Matoušek Study program: Economics and Finance Supervisor: prof. PhDr. Tomáš Havránek, Ph.D. Year of defense: 2022 Abstract The dissertation consists of three papers presenting applications of experimen- tal as well as statistical methods to the topics of behavioural economics. The first paper introduces a series of laboratory experiments in which I apply the experimental methods to a complex decision making problem. The second and third papers present quantitative syntheses of the literature on the classi- cal topics of behavioural economics. The general introduction connects these chapters together. Detailed abstracts for individual papers are presented at the beginning of each chapter. In the first paper, I experimentally examine two complex multi-unit auc- tion mechanisms with an opportunity to communicate and thus collude while comparing these mechanisms in terms of efficiency. Strikingly, allowing for communication increases efficiency in examined auction formats. A cheap-talk collusive agreement resulted in a better allocation compared to the treatments without communication. I hypothesize that complex auction formats makes...
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Helicopter Money and the Propensity to Consume Transfers: The Case of Czech Republic
Doležal, Jakub ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Hanzlík, Petr (referee)
Jakub Doležal1 1 ) Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University 50735965@fsv.cuni.cz The thesis discusses the topic of helicopter money - unconventional mon- etary policy aimed at increasing sub-target inflation and reviving GDP growth when the orthodox monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on policy rates. From the perspective of the households, helicopter money transfer is a windfall gain. Part of the transfer - marginal propensity to con- sume (MPC) - is within weeks turned into consumption. MPC directly affects the outcomes of the policy, it is therefore advisable to predict it. The first part of the thesis describes unconventional monetary with special emphasis on helicopter money, quantitative easing and debt monetization. The second part is then devoted to identifying country-level drivers of MPC and subsequently predicting average MPC across Czech households using meta-analytic approach. While controlling for publication bias and performing variables selection through Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (lasso) the model predicts av- erage marginal propensity to consume the transfer ranging from 0.46 to 0.51 during the years of sub-target inflation and under ZLB on policy rates within the Czech economy.
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Are Women More Risk-Averse than Men? A Meta-Analysis
Černý, Patrik ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Bauer, Michal (referee)
Are women more risk averse than men? While a large portion of economic literature confirms this phenomenon, the link between gender and risk aver- sion has not been found to be consistent. We investigate the difference in risk aversion between genders employing meta-analytic methods on 147 estimates collected from 25 primary studies, converted to partial correlation coefficients. We find positive publication bias in our dataset, suggesting that the reported estimates in primary studies are exaggerated. After adjusting for the publica- tion bias, men do not seem to be more risk-taking than women. In addition, we employ Bayesian Model Averaging to examine heterogeneity among the es- timates, controlling for additional 68 variables reflecting the design of primary studies. Based on the heterogeneity results, we find that the publication bias in our dataset is driven by 'lower quality' studies based on the RePEc ranking of economic journals. This finding also aligns with our robustness checks on sub- sets divided according to the quality of journals publishing the primary studies.
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Immigration and Wages: A Meta-Analysis
Nepivoda, Lukáš ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara (referee)
Increasing number of international migrants in last decades attracts the attention of researchers who attempt to estimate the effect of immigration on the wages of native workers. Despite the extensive body of empirical literature, there is no consensus about the true effect. We employ modern techniques in the meta-analysis to address this question. Using original dataset consisting of 644 estimates from 20 primary studies which reflects the last 30 years of the research on the topic in hand we inspect the literature for the presence of publication bias and explain the heterogeneity in the estimates of primary studies. Although, there is some uncertainty about our results, findings from linear and non-linear tests for publication bias suggests the overall effect close to zero or slightly positive. Moreover, we find an evidence that immigration causes distributional effects which contribute to wealth inequality.
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Marginal Abatement Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Meta-Analysis
Křížková, Alžběta ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Ščasný, Milan (referee)
This thesis uses up-to-date meta-analysis methods to produce a systematic summary of the literature on marginal abatement costs (MAC) of greenhouse gas emissions. It collects 242 MAC estimates for 2030 and 2050 from 59 studies. Besides the usual tests for publication bias, the study employs several modern non-linear tests, such as the TOP 10, the Kink method, the Stem method, and others. Subsequently, Bayesian model averaging is performed for the first time in MAC literature to reveal a mild negative publication bias for the MAC in 2050. The thesis reveals that newer studies provide higher estimates of MAC. Other factors influencing MAC estimation are the size of stabilisation targets, emissions baseline, utilising the LEAP model, the inclusion of other greenhouse gases besides carbon dioxide, and considering the long-run decision making. Several robustness checks are conducted along the way to confirm the selection of the dataset and the robustness of the BMA analysis (using weighted BMA, FMA, OLS). The true value of MAC in 2030 corrected for publication bias is around 32 EUR/tCO2-eq, while for 2050, it is 59 EUR/tCO2-eq. 1
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Independence and Transmission of Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies: The Case of Canada and the Czech Republic
Budinský, Jan ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Buliskeria, Nino (referee)
The question of whether a small open economy (SOE) with highly integrated financial markets can shield itself from the influence of foreign monetary policy and preserve its monetary independence has been the subject of extensive research over the last decades. The growing integration of world economies owing to globalization, the impacts of recent global pandemic on them leading to the use of unconventional monetary policies, and the consequent high levels of inflation across the globe have highlighted the importance of further study of this problematic. This thesis focuses on two small open economies from different currency areas, Canada and the Czech Republic, and evaluates the monetary policies of their central banks, concentrating primarily on their independence, secondarily on the transmission mechanism of the respective policies, and also on their foreign exchange reserves. A comparative analysis of these two countries and their monetary policies on such scale and complexity has not yet been made before. The results of cointegration testing of vector autoregression models consisting of three-month interbank interest rates representing the monetary policies of the countries under investigation revealed that both Canada and the Czech Republic exhibited a considerable degree of monetary...
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Should Central Banks Try to Make Profit on their FX Reserves?
Tabášek, Jakub ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Molnár, Vojtěch (referee)
The first part of the thesis uses vector autoregressions to examine the influence of foreign reserves on macroeconomic variables. The results suggest an econom- ically significant influence on both household consumption and gross capital formation in Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and Indonesia, while in the Philippines and South Korea the influence seems rather weak. However, there is some un- certainty surrounding the results and the relationships may be unstable through time, suggesting that the question is worth revisiting in the future. The second part deals with the management of foreign reserves and in- vestigates whether the long-term management by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which entails the objective of providing a regular income stream to the government budget, could be an option for other central banks. Given the similarity of objectives, the discussion builds on a comparison with the man- agement practices of large U.S. university endowments and suggests that the comparison seems to yield interesting insights pertaining to asset allocation. However, constraints stemming from the size of central bank portfolios and challenges having to do with expertise and management may have implications for the overall stability of investment returns. Given the specific character of a central...
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