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The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the centre of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
Reinštein, Jakub ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a potentially world-changing Chinese economic and geopolitical strategy. In this thesis Gravity Model of Trade (GMT) and Network analysis are employed to assess the relative position of China in the International Trade Network (ITN), the overall impact of BRI, and its effect on countries in Central Eastern Europe and Western Balkans grouped in 17+1 mechanism. The results from Network analysis indicate that since the 1990s China is gradually moving towards the center of ITN. Subnetwork of BRI countries also exhibits higher cohesion and resilience to external shocks than ITN. GMT identified BRI as a significant and positive factor influencing exports, however in case of 17+1 mechanism countries the results are not robust. GMT was also successfully experimentally augmented with Network analysis variables demonstrating its possible enhancements and showing the path for further research. JEL Classification C23, C51, E27, F14 Keywords Gravity Model of Trade, Network Analysis, Belt and Road Initiative, 17+1 Mechanism Title The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the center of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
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Feedback effects of non-performing loans in EMU: A Panel VAR Approach
Bezuchová, Anna ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
This thesis investigates long-run feedback e ects between non-performing loans and their determinants in the Economic and Monetary Union countries using a panel VAR method with generalized impulses response functions and lo- cal projections. The results suggest a bi-directional relationship between the non-performing loans and their determinants. The non-performing loans ratio increases after a negative shock in GDP growth, rising unemployment, wors- ened fiscal balance and increasing risk. On the other hand, a positive shock to non-performing loans decreases the unemployment rate, risk and return on assets. Furthermore, we revealed a di erent magnitude of responses to shocks in core and periphery countries of EMU, which proves financial fragmentation. JEL Classification C23, C51, G21, E32, E44 Keywords Non-performing loans, Panel VAR model, EMU, Generalised impulse response functions Title Feedback e ects of non-performing loans in EMU: A Panel VAR Approach
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Three essays on empirical Bayesian econometrics
Adam, Tomáš ; Komárek, Luboš (advisor) ; Feldkircher, Martin (referee) ; Herrala, Risto (referee) ; Melecký, Martin (referee)
The dissertation consists of three papers which apply Bayesian econometric techniques to monitoring macroeconomic and macro-financial developments in the economy. Its aim is to illustrate how Bayesian methods can be employed in standard areas of economic research (estimating systemic risk in the banking sectors, nowcasting GDP growth) and also in a more original area (monitoring developments in sovereign bond markets). In the first essay, we address a task which analytical departments in central banks or commercial banks face very often - nowcasting foreign demand of a small open economy. On the example of the Czech economy, we propose an approach to nowcast foreign GDP growth rates for the Czech economy. For presentation purposes, we focus on three major trading partners: Germany, Slovakia and France. We opt for a simple method which is very general and which has proved successful in the literature: the method based on bridge equation models. A battery of models is evaluated based on a pseudo-real- time forecasting exercise. The results for Germany and France suggest that the models are more successful at backcasting, nowcasting and forecasting than the naive random walk benchmark model. At the same time, the various models considered are more or less successful depending on the forecast horizon....
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The Elasticity of Substitution between Skilled and Unskilled Labor: A Meta-Analysis
Laslopová, Ľubica ; Havránková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
In this thesis we use meta-analytic methods to quantitatively summarize empirical evidence on elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled labor. Review is based on sample of 684 estimates from 78 studies. After a brief overview of theoretical framework, estimation strategies and distri- bution of the existing estimates, we test for publication bias. According to regression-based tests for publication bias, we do not reject null hypothesis of no publication bias in the existing literature. To explain heterogeneity between the estimates, we use Bayesian Model Averaging. We find that both real factors and research design influence resulting value of estimated elasticity. Our synthetic estimates of the elasticity imply that skilled and unskilled workers are imperfect substitutes in the long run, substitutability in the short-run is mostly limited. JEL Classification: J82, J23, J24, J31 Keywords: elasticity of substitution between skilled and un- skilled labor, meta-analysis, publication bias Author's e-mail llaslopova@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail zuzana.havrankova@fsv.cuni.cz 1
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What drives the differences between transaction and offered prices on the real estate market in Prague?
Kalous, Václav ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
This thesis covers two subjects regarding the real estate market in Prague. In the first part, we look for factors that influence the differences between offer and realized prices of residential properties. From our dataset, we identify the area and the time spent on market as the variables with the largest impact on the price differences. Additionally, we find that price differences are spatially correlated and tend to influence each other. Finally, accessibility of the apart- ment to given POI's seems to have a small but significant effect as well. In the second part, we build a neural network to predict the transaction prices per meter squared. After thorough architecture adjustment and hyperparameter tuning, we propose a model which is able to improve the current best prediction on the dataset by more than 12 %.
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The Role of Business Confidence in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Euro Area
Liu, Zhaozhi ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
Traditional macroeconomics believes that confidence is not the main cause of economic fluctuations, but when faced with financial crises, monetary authorities still emphasize the role of stabilizing confidence. Although people generally agree that confidence is an important part of the transmission of macro-policies to micro- individuals, there is neither empirical evidence support nor corresponding mechanism research. This thesis attempts to answer the following questions: Does business confidence affect the effectiveness of monetary policy? Does business confidence have the same impact on monetary policy in different economic periods? This thesis first constructed a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model to test the role of business confidence in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area. The empirical results show that expansionary monetary policy can effectively boost business confidence while stimulating output growth. In addition, this thesis extends the model by introducing share prices and exchange rates to investigate the role of these two important to the monetary transmission mechanism, concluding that business confidence plays a strong role in interest rate transmission and a weaker role in the transmission of asset prices and exchange rates. Subsequently, in order to...
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The Role of Business Confidence in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Euro Area
Liu, Zhaozhi ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
Traditional macroeconomics believes that confidence is not the main cause of economic fluctuations, but when faced with financial crises, monetary authorities still emphasize the role of stabilizing confidence. Although people generally agree that confidence is an important part of the transmission of macro-policies to micro- individuals, there is neither empirical evidence support nor corresponding mechanism research. This thesis attempts to answer the following questions: Does business confidence affect the effectiveness of monetary policy? Does business confidence have the same impact on monetary policy in different economic periods? This thesis first constructed a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model to test the role of business confidence in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area. The empirical results show that expansionary monetary policy can effectively boost business confidence while stimulating output growth. In addition, this thesis extends the model by introducing share prices and exchange rates to investigate the role of these two important to the monetary transmission mechanism, concluding that business confidence plays a strong role in interest rate transmission and a weaker role in the transmission of asset prices and exchange rates. Subsequently, in order to...
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Gravity analysis of outward Chinese FDI - tests of the Silk Road effect
Liu, Peng ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
New Silk Road is a strategy of China to make more trade, investment as well as other activities in different fields with more countries, which points out the new direction for China's future investment. In 2019, Chinese firms have invested US$ 15.04 billion directly in 56 countries along the One Belt and One Road in non-financial industries. The FDI from China to OBOR countries can be influenced by many factors. This paper would study the investment characteristics of Chinese FDI during recent years and use an extended gravity model to analyze the factors that can influencing FDI. By taking "One Belt and One Road" countries as research objects and adopting the extended gravity model, this paper find which factors are attractive for Chinese FDI to OBOR countries. On the other hand, the article also calculates the investment potential index, which plays a specific complementary role in the research of China's FDI in different areas and finally give policy reference for Chinese FDI. JEL Classification F21 F42 Keywords Foreign Direct Investment, One Belt and One Road , Gravity Model, Investment Potential Index
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Exchange Rate Volatility Effect on Trade Balance in Czech Republic
Naletova, Anastasiia ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
This master's thesis investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade balance of the Czech Republic during 2005-2016. The analysis is performed on the constructed panel dataset for 53 trading partners of the Czech Republic by estimating the trade gravity models. The realized volatility values are obtained for 43 Czech koruna pairs against the local currencies. The variables included into the empirical analysis are the GDP and population of the Czech Republic and its trading partners, realized volatility, weighted distance, contiguity, direct access to the sea and information on EU and OECD membership. The methodological approaches in the analysis are calculations of realized exchange rate volatility and for gravity models panel data estimation techniques: pooled OLS, fixed effects and random effects. The gravity models are compared by the formal tests, and the most efficient among them is the fixed effects. The results of the estimated augmented model reveal significant positive impact of exchange rate volatility on trade balance of the Czech Republic. The key variables that have the expected significant positive impact on trade balance are GDP of the Czech Republic and its trading partners in the basic model, population of the Czech Republic and EU membership in the augmented model....
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Longer-term Yield Decomposition: an analysis of the Czech Government Yield Curve
Kučera, Adam ; Dvořák, Michal ; Komárek, Luboš ; Komárková, Zlatuše
The term structure of yields is an important source of information on market expectations about future macroeconomic developments and investors’ risk perceptions and preferences. This paper presents the methodology used by the Czech National Bank to obtain such information. It describes the decomposition of the Czech government bond yield curve into its components. The evolution of those components is interpreted in relation to the macro-financial environment, as embodied by selected variables. The practical use of the decomposition in estimating and interpreting the responses of the Czech government bond yield curve to macroeconomic and financial shocks is presented using a vector autoregression model.
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