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The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the centre of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
Reinštein, Jakub ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a potentially world-changing Chinese economic and geopolitical strategy. In this thesis Gravity Model of Trade (GMT) and Network analysis are employed to assess the relative position of China in the International Trade Network (ITN), the overall impact of BRI, and its effect on countries in Central Eastern Europe and Western Balkans grouped in 17+1 mechanism. The results from Network analysis indicate that since the 1990s China is gradually moving towards the center of ITN. Subnetwork of BRI countries also exhibits higher cohesion and resilience to external shocks than ITN. GMT identified BRI as a significant and positive factor influencing exports, however in case of 17+1 mechanism countries the results are not robust. GMT was also successfully experimentally augmented with Network analysis variables demonstrating its possible enhancements and showing the path for further research. JEL Classification C23, C51, E27, F14 Keywords Gravity Model of Trade, Network Analysis, Belt and Road Initiative, 17+1 Mechanism Title The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the center of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
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Impacts of Brexit referendum on European banks: evidence from Country-by-Country Reporting
Moravec, Petr ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
1 Abstract In the negotiation period of Brexit in the years 2016-2019, banks in the UK had to plan their activity based on the expectation of whether they would have passporting rights in the future or not. The referendum's consequences may foreshadow what the actual Brexit will entail. This master thesis investigates the impact of the Brexit referendum in 2016 on the banking activity of the 45 largest European banks during the negotiation period. I use gravity analysis for inter-country transactions, and a brand-new "Synthetic Difference in Differences", together with Synthetic Control and standard Difference in Differences, for intra-country transactions. Although all of these methods were used in the literature in the context of the Brexit referendum, the Country-by-Country Reporting (CbCR) dataset that I use has not yet been used in such a context. I use turnover reported in CbCR by European banks as a proxy for banking activity in the years 2013-2019 and, thus, have four pre-treatment years (i.e., 2013-2016) and three post- treatment years (i.e., 2017-2019). Using the gravity model, I discovered empirical evidence that banks reported lower turnover since the Brexit referendum in their partner countries by between 14.5% and 44.6% relative to their domestic country. Yet, banks that have British...
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Modeling spatial interactions on the example of the regional cities
Zelenka, Jaroslav ; Marada, Miroslav (advisor) ; Chmelík, Jakub (referee)
Management and planning of transportation is becoming more important in terms of continuously growing intensity of spatial interactions, which are still mostly realized through transport networks. That's why we can deal with this specific problem of transportation geography using for example spatial interactions modeling. The general aim of the thesis is modeling of spatial interactions and their subsequent comparison with real flows by using calibration in order to predicate the future value of flows taking the planned changes in the transport network in consideration. The main tool used to achieve the goal of the thesis is the gravity model which was applied on the example of regional capitals in the Czech Republic. Based on accomplishments we may say, that centers with lower significance of monitored relations are characterized by further location towards most centers, small number of inhabitants, low intensity of model interactions and lower values of transport intensities with neighboring centers. With the center growth itself, its range of interactions with other centers grows as well. Key Words: spatial interactions modeling, gravity model, model interaction, transport intensity, regional capitals
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Observing Globalization using the Gravity Model of Trade
Dobiáš, Adam ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
This thesis investigates application of the gravity model of international trade on measuring a distance coefficient, which is known to be a proxy to globalization. This estimation is performed on a dataset containing information on EU 27 countries through the years 1996 to 2014. The presence of 10 post- communist countries enabled the author to perform the estimation on transformative economies, which had been isolated from their western trade partners for over 40 years. The division of the dataset into the Western and Eastern Blocs enabled measurement of convergence of the intra-blocs trade - the second goal of this thesis. This measurement was done through newly introduced intra-blocs trade variables that enabled measurements of both directions of trade. Through the application of this model on 10 sections, these measurements could be performed on single trade components. The analysis shows a substantial heterogeneity between single sections both in distance coefficient and inter-blocs trade. An increase in the level of globalization was observed in 9 out of 10 sections and convergence of some sections between the blocs was also found. Finally, globalization was found to progress with varying speed within single SITC sections during periods of economic crises. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Comparison of Factors Determining Czech Exports in Different Aggregations: Analysis by means of an Adjusted Gravity Model
Smotlachová, Eva ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to estimate determinants of Czech export. The key novelty of the research consists in estimating export flows at three different levels of aggregation (total, machinery, automobiles) and a subsequent comparison of results. An augmented gravity model is implemented for the empirical research and estimated with the use of Ordinary least squares (including time or country dummies) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimators. Consequently, we propose the comparison based on the Poisson estimates due to incontestable weaknesses of the OLS estimator. Besides, we emphasize the importance of identifying the panel data structure, as we have obtained different results under the two structures (time series and cross-sectional). The predicted models reveal a substantial impact of home and partner's GDP, distance and the European Union. Total and machinery export seem to follow same tendencies, whereas the development of Czech automobile export differs and evolves on an idiosyncratic path. Therefore, it does not coincide with a path expected by trade theories based on the assumption of perfect competitive markets.
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Various Estimation Techniques of the Gravity Model of Trade
Davidová, Lucie ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with alternative estimation possibilities of the gravity model in trade. We provide the reader with a synthetic methodological overview of the technical problems with the estimation of gravity equations. Consequently, we test for the heterogeneity of data sets used in gravity models of trade which leads us to a conclusion that behavioural patterns of exporters and importers built in the datasets are very complicated and a single generalized specification of gravity equation can lead to bias in estimates and/or to similarly generalized conclusions that hide important robust idiosyncrasies in behavior present in some subsamples of economic agents. Both the theory of estimation techniques and dataset heterogeneity are applied in the empirical part estimating Austria's export function.
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The Trade Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: Based on Gravity Model.
Kong, Xiangyi ; Jeřábek, Petr (advisor) ; Chondrogiannis, Ilias (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
In view of the postponement of negotiations for the modernization of the EU-Turkey customs union, this paper is aimed to look back and examine the ex-post impacts of the CU by examining its trade creation and diversion effects. The study tests effects of 44 countries (including Turkey, 28 EU and 15 non-EU countries) with aggregated data for time period from 1989 to 2019 and disaggregated sectoral trade data from 1995 to 2019. For estimation, the gravity model with strong theoretical and empirical foundation is used by combining various fixed effects with PPML method. The results from the aggregated analysis confirm the trade-promoting effects of the EU-Turkey customs union with mixed effects on both trade within the members (intra-trade creation effects) and trade with non- members (extra-trade creation effects). But the trade diversion is not significantly proved in the model. Besides, a substantial heterogeneity in the CU effect is found across different industries, suggesting the CU has significantly improved the trade on textiles, transportation, machinery, metals and plastics/rubbers, but negligibly influence agriculture, mineral and chemicals. Furthermore, the study also evidences that the impact of the CU is stronger in EU's export to Turkey than Turkey's export to the EU. Finally, CU's...
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Exploring the Interaction between Foreign Direct Investment and International trade with a Focus on CEECs.
Zhang, Ling ; Szobi, Pavel (advisor) ; Figueira, Filipa (referee) ; Jeřábek, Petr (referee)
Our research reveals the impact of foreign direct investment on the intensity of bilateral trade in the Central Eastern European (CEE) region, focusing on countries of Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Estonia (CEE-6). Previous literature and research results indicate that there is a complementary or substitute relationship between FDI and trade. However, the studies of this subject on the CEE region are scarce. Our study employs the gravity model to analyze the impact of FDI on bilateral trade with panel data of each country from 2005 to 2019. Based on the panel data, we investigate the commercial integration among CEE-6 and with main EU commercial partners. Our results suggest a prevalence of complementary relationships in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia, yet each country demonstrates the relationship through different facts. The complementary relationship is attributed to the prevalent vertical FDI in CEECs, especially in the automotive industry. However, Estonia displays a substitutive relationship between outward FDI and trade. Moreover, we find the commercial integration only exists among the Visegrad group.
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Exchange Rate Volatility Effect on Trade Balance in Czech Republic
Naletova, Anastasiia ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
This master's thesis investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade balance of the Czech Republic during 2005-2016. The analysis is performed on the constructed panel dataset for 53 trading partners of the Czech Republic by estimating the trade gravity models. The realized volatility values are obtained for 43 Czech koruna pairs against the local currencies. The variables included into the empirical analysis are the GDP and population of the Czech Republic and its trading partners, realized volatility, weighted distance, contiguity, direct access to the sea and information on EU and OECD membership. The methodological approaches in the analysis are calculations of realized exchange rate volatility and for gravity models panel data estimation techniques: pooled OLS, fixed effects and random effects. The gravity models are compared by the formal tests, and the most efficient among them is the fixed effects. The results of the estimated augmented model reveal significant positive impact of exchange rate volatility on trade balance of the Czech Republic. The key variables that have the expected significant positive impact on trade balance are GDP of the Czech Republic and its trading partners in the basic model, population of the Czech Republic and EU membership in the augmented model....
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