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Poverty, Population, and Energetical Progress in European Union
Novák, Ivan ; Rečka, Lukáš (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
Energy poverty is closely connected to the current energy transformation focused on the utilization of renewable sources of energy. The thesis aims to evaluate whether European Union countries are prepared to tackle energy poverty effectively in the context of the ongoing transformation, which could impose an additional burden on vulnerable consumers. The thesis presents hierarchical clustering to group countries by common characteristics and assesses the countries' National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) within the clusters. The study concludes that National Energy and Climate Plans are poorly specified for most European Union Member States. Only fifteen countries address energy poverty effectively, and only nine countries have appropriate measures and tools to tackle energy poverty, evaluating 2019 NECPs and 2023 NECP drafts if available. Next, the thesis describes a nonlinear relationship between energy poverty and both the total share of renewables on final consumption and the energy efficiency index of households - linked to investments for deploying renewable energy sources. Finally, an exploratory Agent-based model is presented. JEL Classification Q430, Q480, Q470, N7 Keywords Energy poverty, National Energy and Climate Plan, Fuel Transitions, Green Premium, Energy Transformation, Energy...
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Application of the logit leaf algorithm for customer churn prediction in the energy distribution industry in the Czech Republic
Židek, Andrej ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Petit, Mathieu (referee)
The thesis investigates determinants of losing customer (customer churn) in the Czech energy sector. For this purpose, the data from MND Energie, a.s., one of the largest Czech energy suppliers, on average consumption, tariff, and sociodemographic characteristics about 9254 of their customers whose natural gas contracts terminated at the end of 2019 are used. The main goal of this thesis is to build a model capable of predicting probability of non-renewal of the individual customers' contracts. Before the contract termination date, some of the customers randomly selected from the dataset were directly notified of the possibility of a new fixed-price contract. The thesis, in compliance with its main goal, evaluates the influence of this treatment on the churn probability. The experiment has so far only been carried out in 2019. Thus, the thesis deals with supervised machine learning task performed on cross-sectional data. The logit leaf model (LLM) was chosen as the way of obtaining the desired predictions. The LLM algorithm used in this thesis was published in 2018 and it builds on previous research in this area. Its main contribution lies in combining the two generally accepted approaches, decision trees and logistic regression, in order to eliminate their disadvantages. LLM's performance was...
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Introducing stochasticity into the energy system model Times-CZ - a reflection of a war-related extreme environment
Otruba, Šimon ; Rečka, Lukáš (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
This thesis introduces stochastic elements into the TIMES-CZ energy system model focusing on the impact of extreme events such as pandemic or recent war in Ukraine. The objective is to improve the model's precision in the face of these market uncertainties. Natural gas prices and European Union Allowance (EUA) prices, after a selection process, are represented as random variables allowing for probabilistic forecasting. These variables are derived from an analysis that combines model-based forecasts, which also include external predictions. The results of this comprehensive analysis are then integrated into the TIMES-CZ model. The correctness of these results is validated using sensitivity analysis, which evaluates the impact of results with uncertain parameters on the model's output. The findings highlight the importance of including uncertainty in energy systems modelling and could have implications for energy planning and decision-making in uncertain contexts. Keywords TIMES-CZ Model, Stochasticity, Energy System Modelling, Uncertainty Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis JEL Classification C12, C33, G21, L25, M31 Title Introducing stochasticity into the energy system model Times-CZ - a reflection of a war- related extreme environment
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Terminal Asset Value of the Prague Stock Exchange
Neumann, Pavel ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
Neumann Pavel Abstract This thesis draws parallel between depositors facing a bank run and investors facing a stock price crash in order to determine a formula for debt ratio that would trigger mass sale of stocks for particular company. To reach terminal debt ratio formula, this thesis firstly discusses a topic of financial crises from stock market and banking perspective. Next, it compares regulation for both institutions on Czech national and EU level. Then, this thesis derives a formula for calculation of terminal debt ratio based on game theory and pricing of the options approach. Lastly, it tests limits of terminal debt ratio framework on companies listed on Prague Stock Exchange and concludes that terminal debt ratio framework is best applicable on non-financial companies that experienced moderate growth in stock price over the examined period.
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Usability of contractual information for prediction of household energy consumption volume
Škorvaga, Cyril ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Khymych, Olha (referee)
5 Abstract This thesis investigates usability of contractual information, enriched with publicly available sociodemographic and environmental statistics, for predicting household energy consumption volume. The aim is to assess the usability of this type of information to enhance prediction accuracy as well as to uncover relationships between energy consumption and various independent variables derivable from the contractual information, such as appliance groups, location, age, and sex. Regression trees, a machine learning technique, are employed to develop a prediction model. Thesis focuses on households in the Czech Republic. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the prediction model, with low bias and improved accuracy compared to existing estimators for newly set meter points. The inclusion of regional-level variables enhances prediction accuracy only moderately. However, patterns derived from extensive datasets yield statistically significant conclusions regarding the effect of these variables. Challenges in incorporating certain variables and lack of longitudinal data limit the study. Future research directions may include exploring how different customer groups react to time- variant factors to enhance the accuracy and applicability of energy consumption predictions. The findings provide utility...
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The impacts of battery electric vehicles production on material use
Pěnkavová, Markéta ; Ščasný, Milan (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to estimate the material impact of the BEV production with the main focus on the BEV battery material demand. This is done using the life cycle analysis (LCA) along with detailed analysis of the battery material demand which is then linked to dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The hybrid form of a fully dynamic CGE model is used to estimate the vehicle stock and annual new registrations for five different vehicle technologies (BEV, PHEV, Petrol, Diesel, CNG) in 2015 to 2050 in the Czech republic. These estimates are done for the business as usual scenario and then six different policy scenarios. The effects of direct government subsidy on BEV purchase are modelled along with the impacts of increase in ICEV registration tax, mineral oil tax surge or an expansion in charging stations market. Consequently, the results from CGE modelling are combined with LCA as the detailed BEV battery material composition data are used to estimate the material impact of increased BEV usage. The results from CGE modelling show a clear increasing trend in BEV usage in the future years for the baseline scenario, in addition, the modelled government scenarios incentivizing the BEV usage were shown to have a pos- sitive effect on BEV sales in the Czech republic while...
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International competition in aircraft market
Dubinský, Matej ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Suleymanov, Mahir (referee)
This thesis investigates aspects of Boeing - Airbus competition on the field of large commercial aircraft. By analyzing action-reaction dynamics in M&A strategies, introductions of new models and trade disputes, namely inter- actions with regional jet manufacturers and Airbus's reaction on the intro- duction of 787, we observe that mimicking competitor's strategy does not necessarily guarantee increase of the market share. We collect and analyze data on wide-body aircraft sales and prices from 2004 to 2018 to find the most valuable parameter for customers. The results show the price being the most important and a market segmentation present, while medium and long-range wide-body segments are more sensitive to price changes within the segment than across. From the qualitative attributes of an aircraft, range is a more important factor than seating. Finally, we question the inaccura- cies of demand estimations for A380 before its launch. Unpredictable events and factors unobservable by an economic model are found to have a drastic impact on the real demand and the estimations ought to be accepted with caution. Keywords: Demand for aircraft, commercial aviation, duopoly, market share, demand estimation, market segmentation, wide-body aircraft. Author's email: 39131651@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's email:...
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Overconfidence and retail investors: case of a "kangaroo" market
Mitro, Tomáš ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
In recent times, financial markets have undergone major changes. Availability of participating on trading activity on the market has increased thanks to zero-fee brokerages. New assets, cryptocurrencies, have become a mainstream invest- ment option. A global pandemic has brought uncertainty and large volatility. In this thesis, I aim to study how these new market conditions have affected presence of overconfidence during the period of early 2019 to early 2022. I explain in what forms can overconfidence patterns be observed in people and on financial markets. Then I test for presence of these patterns using four hypotheses. Findings of this thesis suggest that there is no significant differ- ence of overconfidence manifestation between stock data and cryptocurrency data. Results suggest that riskiness of assets affects how strongly are the pat- terns of overconfidence detected. Finally, different patterns of overconfidence are detected for different frequencies of data, suggesting connection between overconfidence and retail investors. JEL Classification G40, G12, C32 Keywords overconfidence, retail investors, cryptocurrency, trading Title Overconfidence and retail investors: the case of a 'kangaroo' market
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Three Essays on Asymmetric Information in SME Finance and Microfinance
Wang, Yao ; Drábek, Zdenek (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee) ; Brada, Josef C. (referee) ; Kutan, Ali M. (referee)
This dissertation thesis consists of three essays on asymmetric information problem in small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) finance and Microfinance. The aim of the thesis is to address the key problem in the credit rationing in the SME finance and microfinance and strive to improve the credit analyzing model with the help of soft information. The first essay investigates the factors that hinder the growth of SMEs using a World Bank dataset, and access to finance is found to be their biggest constrain to growth. Asymmetric information between small business owners and banks generates high interest rates, complex application procedures and high collateral requirements, which are found to be the biggest obstacles business owners face when they seek external financing. Small business owners who cannot get loans from banks will turn to microfinance as an alternative source of funds. In the second essay, a new dataset from disintermediated Peer to Peer (P2P) lending market is used to investigate credit rationing efficiency when there is no financial intermediary. The results show the existence of adverse selection where investors are predisposed to making inaccurate diagnoses of signals and gravitate to borrowers with low creditworthiness, while inadvertently screening out those with high...
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