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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Differences between men and women in the Czech labour market
Stroukal, Dominik ; Kadeřábková, Božena (advisor) ; Pavelka, Tomáš (referee) ; Němec, Otakar (referee)
This thesis consists of five articles that apply current world research on labor economics at the Czech Republic and confirms the significant differences between men and women in this market. It shows that gender has a significant influence on the preference on the labor market and, consequently, on employment and health. First, the thesis shows that preferences are relevant determinant of career and then we study the difference in preference of salary for men and women. Subsequently it shows that gender plays a significant role in explaining the relationship between homeownership, and unemployment, as well as unemployment and health. The first chapter was able to demonstrate that the preference for a career has a positive influence on the choice of career. The influence of higher education on prioritizing career proved to be positive and significant. Probability of a career choice is reduced by the presence of children, however, is not dependent on their number, which is contrary to the theory of preferences. The second chapter shows that Czech women prefer more non-monetary rewards than men. It has also been shown that people with university education are same in the preferences of non-monetary rewards regardless of the gender of the respondents, however, compared to the world's research, the Czech higher education increases this preference. It turned out that women prefer risk less than men. The third chapter demonstrates that although the housing market undermines labor mobility and employment in the Czech Republic at the regional level, therefore, that in regions with a higher rate of home ownership is higher unemployment, at the individual level, the owners of housing are unemployed are less likely. The estimates are significantly different for men and women. Men living in owner-occupied housing have a higher likelihood of employment than women. At regional level, however, this thesis shows that the high rate of home ownership increases unemployment for both men and women, in the long run only to women. The fourth chapter showed that men transition to homeownership reduces the likelihood of unemployment next year. For women, this relationship has proved to be insignificant. In addition, as insignificant showed the opposite relationship, the transition from unemployment to the newly acquired home ownership. The last chapter shows that the change in the working status to unemployment will increase in the future probability of worse health. Influence in less than two years, however, proved to be significant. An important conclusion is that men have a significantly stronger relationship between health and unemployment than women.
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Demonstrate the principles of application development for Android on the example of a simple game
Tatoušek, Petr ; Pecinovský, Rudolf (advisor) ; Oraný, Vladimír (referee)
Demonstration of the Android application development principles explained on a simple game is a thesis describing in it's theoretical part Android OS. It also briefly describes it's history and especially it's architecture emphasizing on my thesis' part relevant to the practi-cal part of my dissertation. It also focuses on the general applications' architecture princi-ples for this operating system. In the practical part of the thesis I tend to describe the application development principles for Android OS. This is achieved on an sample application. This sample application is an implementation of a text-based adventure game in the Java language. It uses SQLite data-base for storing the game data. There is a game framework which enables entering diffe-rent game data to the database and thus playing different games with divergent game plays.
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Possibilities of Big Data use for Competitive Intelligence
Verníček, Marek ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Šperková, Lucie (referee)
The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the use of Big Data for the methods and procedures of Competitive Intelligence. Among the goals of the work is a toolkit for small and large businesses which is supposed to support their work with the whole process of Big Data work. Another goal is to design an effective solution of processing Big Data to gain a competitive advantage in business. The theoretical part of the work processes available scientific literature in the Czech Republic and abroad as well as describes the current state of Competitive Intelligence, and Big Data as one of its possible sources. Subsequently, the work deals with the characteristics of Big Data, the differences from working with common data, the need for a thorough preparation and Big Data applicability for the methods of Competitive Intelligence. The practical part is focused on analysis of Big Data tools available in the market with regard to the whole process from data collection to the analysis report preparation and integration of the entire solution into an automated state. The outcome of this part is the Big Data software toolkit for small and large businesses based on their budget. The final part of the work is devoted to the classification of the most promising business areas, which can benefit from the use of Big Data the most in order to gain competitive advantages and proposes the most effective solution of working with Big Data. Among other benefits of this work are expansion of the range of resources for Competitive Intelligence and in-depth analysis of possibilities of Big Data usage, designed to help professionals make use of this hitherto untapped potential to improve market position, gain new customers and strengthen the existing user base.
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Vegetation succession and soil development on heaps from brown coal mining
Veselý, Martin ; Chuman, Tomáš (advisor) ; Šefrna, Luděk (referee)
Plant diversity and selected soil parameters from 36 sites placed on brown coal mining spoil heaps were analyzed and compared. Spontaneously revegetated or technically reclaimed spoil heaps of different age were situated in brown coal mining district of eastern Most basin in north western part of the Czech republic. Samples were sorted in groups according to vegetation growth and type. Plant diversity increases during succession development and is higher on non-reclaimed sites than reclaimed sites, where diversity decreases with time. Soil bulk density decreases during succession on all sites. Soil pH is decreasing too and this process is faster on spontaneously revegetated sites. Old successional forest type sites have very acid soils probably due to properties of original mineral matrix. Thickness of organic horizon and A horizon is increasing during succession and they appear in mid-aged sites first. Content of soil organic carbon is increasing continuously. Non-reclaimed sites reach higher contents, mainly because of higher content of fossil organic matter in spoil mineral matrix. Keywords: vegetation succession, soil development, reclamation, brown coal mining heaps
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Determination of content substances for selected species and varieties of roses.
Slavíková, Eva ; Sus, Josef (advisor) ; Súkeníková, Tereza (referee)
This bachelor's work is focused on comparing the most significant content substance, vitamin C, in fruits of chosen rose kinds species and varieties. Herbal products are often seen by people as products of "second choice", when failure of allopathic treatment occurs, which is focused especially on suppressing symptoms of illness, but it ignores health of the human body as whole. That's why are herbal products often alternative for therapy of chronic diseases. The base of this work is extensive literary research and results of laboratory measurings. Literary part of this work includes description of botanical classification of rose plants. There is stated basic characteristic of individual rose species and their morphological features. In following chapters is composed overview of effective substances in rose fruits and their effect on human health. In practical part of this work are included results of laboratory tests for determining ascorbic acid content for chosen samples of rose species and it also includes results of weighing and measuring of fruit samples of chosen rose species. There are also stated chosen rose species and shortly their origin and description, in the beginning of practical part. For practical part were chosen samples of species. Results of practical part are compiled into statistic tables and graphs and it confirms high content of ascorbic acid in rose fruits. This content is in range of cca 300 - 900 mg.100 g-1. Due to growing interest in alternative treatment options and "clean" natural product, it can be assumed, that many plants of Rosaceae family will keep its place in treatment practice. Those plants will be used not only for treatment of acute and chronic diseases, but also for cosmetic products production, thanks to its large effects and process options.
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Effect of snowpack on runoff generation during rain on snow event.
Juras, Roman ; Máca, Petr (advisor) ; Ladislav , Ladislav (referee)
During a winter season, when snow covers the watershed, the frequency of rain-on-snow (ROS) events is still raising. ROS can cause severe natural hazards like floods or wet avalanches. Prediction of ROS effects is linked to better understanding of snowpack runoff dynamics and its composition. Deploying rainfall simulation together with hydrological tracers was tested as a convenient tool for this purpose. Overall 18 sprinkling experiments were conducted on snow featuring different initial conditions in mountainous regions over middle and western Europe.
Dye tracer brilliant blue (FCF) was used for flow regime determination, because it enables to visualise preferential paths and layers interface. Snowpack runoff composition was assessed by hydrograph separation method, which provided appropriate results with acceptable uncertainty. It was not possible to use concurrently these two techniques because of technical reasons, however it would extend our gained knowledge. Snowmelt water amount in the snowpack runoff was estimated by energy balance (EB) equation, which is very efficient but quality inputs demanding. This was also the reason, why EB was deployed within only single experiment.
Timing of snowpack runoff onset decrease mainly with the rain intensity. Initial snowpack properties like bulk density or wetness are less important for time of runoff generation compared to the rain intensity. On the other het when same rain intensity was applied, non-ripe snowpack featuring less bulk density created runoff faster than the ripe snowpack featuring higher bulk density. Snowpack runoff magnitude mainly depends on the snowpack initial saturation. Ripe snowpack with higher saturation enabled to generate higher cumulative runoff where contributed by max 50 %. In contrary, rainwater travelled through the non-ripe snowpack relatively fast and contributed runoff by approx. 80 %.
Runoff prediction was tested by deploying Richards equation included in SNOWPACK model. The model was modified using a dual-domain approach to better simulate snowpack runoff under preferential flow conditions. Presented approach demonstrated an improvement in all simulated aspects compared to the more traditional method when only matrix flow is considered.
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International trade in a Kraft paper intended for contact with food
Vodičková, Martina ; Regnerová, Olga (advisor) ; Zdeněk, Zdeněk (referee)
The master´s thesis deals with international trade with packaging paper intended for contact with food.
The theoretical part concentrates on packaging types and functions, the history of the paper industry in the Czech Republic and the world market with packaging paper intended for contact with food. The legislation of each country is very important for this type of business, therefore the legislation in selected countries is briefly described, including internationally regarded certification.
In the practical part the author analyses the sales of the company Mondi Štětí a.s. in the years from 2010 to 2012 and defines countries with the highest purchasing of packaging paper for end-use with food contact.
The third part is devoted to evaluation of the market and the way the company trades on the market. There are contained proposals for optimization leading to the acceleration of trade in this commodity
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Influence of meadow management on the migration behavior of selected species of butterflies
Bubová, Terezie ; Langrová, Iva (advisor) ; Farkač, Jan (referee)
Migrations are the key process and one of the basic biological features, which allow survival of endangered species in fragmented landscape. In the last decades, agriculture intensification, industry and urbanization caused that number of natural butterfly habitats has significantly decreased. The localities originally suitable for butterflies are currnetly converted to farmland or building plots. This PhD thesis aimed to find a compromise solution of meadow management, which should allow a commercial use and concurrently do not jeopardize the continued existence of endangered or threatened species. The main idea of this study was in the intentional emigration causing in the middle of flight period, which should lead into resettlement of the population to another (potentially more suitable) locality. Possibility of aimed manipulation with butterfly emigrations would be considered as a major breakthrough in their protection.
The investigated species Phengaris nausithous (Bergsträsser, 1779) and Phengaris teleius (Bergsträsser, 1779) are both considered to be flagship species for protection of European butterflies at open meadows. This study is based on research, which was carried out in 2013-2015 at 17 patch in localities Dolní Labe, Czech Republic. In above mentioned years, one selected meadow was mowed in the middle of flight season and the emigrations were then monitored using mark-release-recapture method. Results of population and migration characteristics were calculated in MARK 8.1 software. Subsequently, the effect of mowing on emigration (comparison of emigrations from the meadow before and after mowing) was evaluated using Statistica 13.
The hypotheses of this study were based on the assumption, that the loss of resources after well-timed mowing should increase the activity of adult butterflies. During the monitoring, number of emigrations was increased only in flight season 2015. Unfortunately, the statistical evaluation did not show significant effect of mowing on migrations. On the other hand, the hypothesis dealing with colonization of nearest meadows was confirmed.
Effect of intentional emigration caused by management interventions was unfortunately not proved. However, we found out, that even though the population at one mowed meadow decreased clearly, the metapopulation size at the locality remained more or less stable.
At investigated (mowed) meadow, there was observed a sharp decline of P. nausithous abundance. On the other hand, P. teleius population was only slightly reduced. It is therefore conceivable, that P. teleius are not as susceptible to innapropriate term of mowing. The results obtained in our research conclusively displayed no possible positive effect of mowing in the middle of flight season and a necessity of suitable management maintenance at localities inhabited by Phengaris butterflies.
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Individual human odor as a forensic trail in criminal proceeding made by contact or contactless transmission and its resistance to physical agents
Santariová, Milena ; Bartoš, Luděk (advisor) ; Chmelíková, Eva (referee)
The dissertation thesis consists of four papers that have been published in scientific journals.
Study n. 1
The need to recover evidence from water is quite common in criminal investigation. The article deals with the possibility to collect human scent from such objects and with the ability of specially trained dogs to match such scent samples with scent samples collected from detained suspects. During an experiment, designed as a blind one, it has been proved, that human scent can survive on submerged objects and can be later used for scent identification.
Study n. 2
To collect odors the Czech Republic Police use special fabric sorbents manufactured under the registered mark ARATEX. Before use the fabric sorbent is treated by water vapor sterilization. After the scent identification the sorbent is destroyed. The goal of the study was to verify if the vapor sterilization is effective enough to remove human scent that has already penetrated into the sorbent structure or in other words if the sorbent can be exposed to vapor sterilization and then used again. Specially trained dogs were used to match starting odors with target odors in the line-ups. The results showed that dogs are able to correctly match human odors even after they have being exposed to vapor sterilization.
Study n. 3
The purpose of the study was to determine the temperature at which the human scent is degraded so that a dog would not be able to identify it. In contrast to expectations, eight dogs used in the experiment almost flawlessly identified human scents from five scent donors exposed to temperatures of 100°C, 200°C, 300°C, 400°C, 500°C, 600°C, 700°C, and 800°C. Only two of the dogs were able to identify 5 of 15 scent samples exposed to 900°C. No dog identified a scent exposed to 1000°C. Our study verified heat survivability of human scent far beyond existing expectations.
Study n. 4
We tested the hypothesis that if odor fallout (the release of a human odor onto an untouched object) in human subjects exists, then holding a hand above an absorbent will produce a detectable scent which will be subsequently matched in a detection test by trained dogs. Scents were collected from seven males to sterile cotton absorbent squares. The left hand was used to get the control scent and the right hand served as the target scent. Each experimental subject was sitting and his left hand was laid down on a cotton square for 3 min. The right hand was held 5 cm above another cotton square for 3 min. The scent identification was done by two specially trained police German shepherds. Both dogs performed 14 line-ups and correctly matched the collected scents of all test subjects. The results suggest the existence of human odor fallout, whereby a human scent trace is left by humans even if they do not touch an object.
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