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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Population Characteristics of Voters: Evidence from the Czech Parliamentary Election
Černý, Jakub ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Želinský, Tomáš (referee)
In 2017, nine political parties were elected into the Czech Parliament, which is the greatest number in the history of the country. This thesis analyses the voter turnout and results of particular parties, using aggregated data on the municipal level. The goal is to find a spectrum of variables that would un- cover connections between the population characteristics of voters and their decisions to vote and to choose a political party. The method of weighted least squares is used for estimation and the results are tested for the presence of spa- tial autocorrelation. Subsequently, a spatial error model is used for the same analysis in order to observe spatial effects in the voting results and provide a comparison between the methods. There is found a significant negative con- nection between the voter turnout and the share of people facing distraints, unemployment, and the share of people with no education. Concerning the election results, the parties ANO, SPD, and KSCM receive greater support in municipalities with greater unemployment and lower shares of businessmen and people with university education. On the other hand, the parties ODS, Pirati, and TOP 09 evince exactly the opposite trends in these explanatory variables. JEL Classification H70, I21, I30, J10, J11 Keywords voting behaviour, voter...
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Czech Senate in perception of electors. The Analysis in View of History, Voter Turnout and Electoral System
Navrátil, Marek ; Mlejnek, Josef (advisor) ; Švec, Kamil (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the Senate of the Parliament of the Czech Republic in view of history, voter turnout and electoral system. The main purpose of the thesis is to present the Senate in terms of broad perspective, based on the analysis of selected parts of the political system. The thesis is a case study which includes an analysis of the Czech Constitution preparations, a voter turnout analysis with the main purpose to present crucial trends and simulation of some variations of qualified plurality rule on existing electoral results of the Senate elections. There is also the theory of bicameralism presented as a part of the theoretical part in the thesis. Based on the analysis the thesis presents extensive conclusions. In the view of history there are historical and ideological circumstances and also political demands of participants in the case of proposing the institution of Senate. The main conclusion on the view of voter turnout is that since 2008 there has been a continual decrease, particularly in run-off. The thesis brings two groups of solution in order that the Senate elections voter turnout might increase. First, technical changes in the electoral act could be made, and second, the whole electoral system in terms of single-round option could be changed. Based on the simulation,...
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Voters'registration and its effect on turnout
Tlapáková, Dominika ; Kotábová, Věra (advisor) ; Brunclík, Miloš (referee)
The right to vote is one of the fundamental rights of citizens in democratic countries. In the United States, however, this action is preceded by the obligation to register. Election registrations are still seen as a limiting element of electoral law. The aim of this work is to find out how the registration was influenced in the past and what influenced the number of registered citizens and voter participation in the presidential elections in 2016. The first part deals with federal electoral registration reforms and looks at the current situation. The second part consists of a research in which the relationship determination is utilized by the Pearson correlation coefficient. The work concludes that the ratio of registered age to eligible voters has not increased, although the demographic curve continues to rise. In the case of factors that may affect the number of registered, the direct relationship has not been established. On the contrary, a direct correlation has been shown in the case of the same factors with the turnout in the presidential election.
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Democracy in the Lack of Interest: the Effects of Remote Internet Voting Implementation in the Electoral Process of Selected Countries
Sál, Karel ; Jüptner, Petr (advisor) ; Brunclík, Miloš (referee) ; Chytilek, Roman (referee)
203 12 Dissertation Summary Dissertation title: Democracy in the Lack of Interest: the Effects of Remote Internet Voting Implementation in the Electoral Process of Selected Countries Name and Surname: Karel Sál Field of Study: Political Science Place of Work: Institute of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague Dissertation Supervisor: PhDr. Petr Jüptner, Ph.D. No. of Pages: 203 No. of Appendixes: 30 Year of Defense: 2016 Keywords: internet voting; remote internet voting; electoral turnout; crisis of democracy; theory of participation; rational choice theory; Estonia; Switzerland; France; Norway; Spain. Abstract: The dissertation thesis named Democracy in the Lack of Interest: the Effects of Remote Internet Voting Implementation in the Electoral Process of Selected States reflects the phenomenon of the last decade - incorporation of new media into the political process. Internet voting is one of the discussed and suggested solutions of the so-called crisis of democracy, which could possibly stop the negative trend of diminishing voter turnout in advanced western democracies. The entire academic debate can be summarized into one question: It is possible, that the way of ballot casting can affect the voter turnout in that scale, that we can recognize a significant-positive...
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Voter turnout: Undecided individuals in public opinion surveys
Kovářová, Klára ; Chábová, Kristýna (advisor) ; Sedláčková, Markéta (referee)
This bachelor thesis is concerned with the identification of undecided voters in terms of voter turnout in the Czech republic. In this paper I call them "possible voters". In other words in preelection polls these individuals declare they are not decided whether they will vote or not. I use preelections polls that are part of continual reserach survey called "Our society" conducted monthly by The Public Opinion Research Centre in order to find out what is the percentage of these voters. This study is focused on the period between 1990 and 2013 and explicitly on general elections. The other aim of this paper is to describe how the percentage of possible voters varies among certain sociodemographics. Moreover, I try to discover what the key factors that might influence why these possible voters are undecided are. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Early Voting in the U.S. Election System
Horký, Miroslav ; Kotábová, Věra (advisor) ; Švec, Radek (referee)
The bachelor thesis Early voting in the U. S. Election System deals with the concept, which aims to significantly simplify the election process to increase the turnout and make the access to electoral process easier to most people. The bachelor thesis defines terms early voting and absentee voting and its expansion. The analysis is also focused on differences between Election day voters and early voters. The operation of early voting in practice is illustrated in three cases from states Florida, Oregon and Virginia. Advantages and disadvantages of this type of voting and view to the future are presented in final part of thesis. The emphasis is also placed on the global expansion of this type of voting, which allows to cast ballot prior the Election day. The current electoral system of the Czech Republic, which does not allow to vote early is also mentioned in thesis.
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Direct election of mayors in the European experience
Švadlenková, Michaela ; Jüptner, Petr (advisor) ; Švec, Kamil (referee) ; Balík, Stanislav (referee)
This rigorous thesis has been dealing with the direct election of mayors in Europe. Three hypotheses were postulated in the introduction. The aim of the thesis was to find out, if the direct election of mayors causes an increase in the voter turnout, if it comes to cases of divided majorities and if those are causing issues with local system functioning. Lastly I tried to find out, if the direct election is a trend, which is going to be spreading further. The factors of voter turnout and divided majorities were analysed in seven case studies: England, Norway, Croatia, Poland, Italy, Austria and Germany. In every case study I have compared the voter turnout in the mayoral elections with the turnout in the council elections. In the countries, where the election term was synchronised, the difference in the voter turnout was rather low. In most countries voter turnout in the mayoral elections was identical or lower than in the election of the councils. Only in North Rhine- Westphalia in Germany was the turnout in the mayoral election higher and the difference in the two turnouts was greater. Further I have analysed the voter turnout before and after the introduction of the direct election of mayors. Only in Italy and Croatia was the voter turnout shortly increased after the introduction of the direct...
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Media as a Factor of Electoral Apathy in the Czech Republic
Vatahová, Jana ; Weiss, Tomáš (advisor) ; Emler, David (referee)
The purpose of this thesis is to explore whether the drop in voter turnout between the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament elections, as well as the general apathy toward the politics of the European Union, in the Czech Republic was contributed to by the mass media. Specifically, this thesis will examine the two most read daily newspapers of both 2009 and 2014, Blesk and Mladá Fronta Dnes, and analyze its articles with the use of search words in order to assess whether any change occurred in the way the European Union, its policies and institutions, were presented immediately prior to the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament elections. This will be achieved through the use of content analysis, both quantitative and qualitative, while evaluating the articles in comparative fashion. The thesis will argue that, given the essential role of the media as intermediary between the world of politics and the electorate, the portrayal, or lack thereof, of the European Union is a factor in explaining the electoral dynamics of the country. Key Words: voter turnout; European Parliament elections; mass media; electoral apathy Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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