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2024-03-10
03:13
Statistical Method Selection Matters: Vanilla Methods in Regression May Yield Misleading Results
Kalina, Jan
The primary aim of this work is to illustrate the importance of the choice of the appropriate methods for the statistical analysis of economic data. Typically, there exist several alternative versions of common statistical methods for every statistical modeling task\nand the most habitually used (“vanilla”) versions may yield rather misleading results in nonstandard situations. Linear regression is considered here as the most fundamental econometric model. First, the analysis of a world tourism dataset is presented, where the number of international arrivals is modeled for 140 countries of the world as a response of 14 pillars (indicators) of the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index. Heteroscedasticity is clearly recognized in the dataset. However, the Aitken estimator, which would be the standard remedy in such a situation, is revealed here to be very inappropriate. Regression quantiles represent a much more suitable solution here. The second illustration with artificial data reveals standard regression quantiles to be unsuitable for data contaminated by outlying values. Their recently proposed robust version turns out to be much more appropriate. Both\nillustrations reveal that choosing suitable methods represent an important (and often difficult) part of the analysis of economic data.

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2024-03-10
03:13
Ambiguity in Stochastic Optimization Problems with Nonlinear Dependence on a Probability Measure via Wasserstein Metric
Kaňková, Vlasta
Many economic and financial applications lead to deterministic optimization problems depending on a probability measure. It happens very often (in applications) that these problems have to be solved on the data base. Point estimates of an optimal value and estimates of an optimal solutionset can be obtained by this approach. A consistency, a rate of convergence and normal properties, of these estimates, have been discussed (many times) not only under assumptions of independent data corresponding to the distributions with light tails, but also for weak dependent data and the distributions with heavy tails. However, it is also possible to estimate (on the data base) a confidence intervals and bounds for the optimal value and the optimal solutions. To analyze this approach we focus on a special case of static problems depending nonlineary on the probability measure. Stability results based on the Wasserstein metric and the Valander approach will be employed for the above mentioned analysis.

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2024-03-10
03:13
Some Robust Approaches to Reducing the Complexity of Economic Data
Kalina, Jan
The recent advent of complex (and potentially big) data in economics requires modern and effective tools for their analysis including tools for reducing the dimensionality (complexity) of the given data. This paper starts with recalling the importance of Big Data in economics and with characterizing the main categories of dimension reduction techniques. While there have already been numerous techniques for dimensionality reduction available, this work is interested in methods that are robust to the presence of outlying measurements (outliers) in the economic data. Particularly, methods based on implicit weighting assigned to individual observations are developed in this paper. As the main contribution, this paper proposes three novel robust methods of dimension reduction. One method is a dimension reduction within a robust regularized linear regression, namely a sparse version of the least weighted squares estimator. The other two methods are robust versions of feature extraction methods popular in econometrics: robust principal component analysis and robust factor analysis.

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2024-03-10
03:13
A Bootstrap Comparison of Robust Regression Estimators
Kalina, Jan ; Janáček, Patrik
The ordinary least squares estimator in linear regression is well known to be highly vulnerable to the presence of outliers in the data and available robust statistical estimators represent more preferable alternatives.

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2024-03-10
03:13
Average Reward Optimality in Semi-Markov Decision Processes with Costly Interventions
Sladký, Karel
In this note we consider semi-Markov reward decision processes evolving on finite state spaces. We focus attention on average reward models, i.e. we establish explicit formulas for the growth rate of the total expected reward. In contrast to the standard models we assume that the decision maker can also change the running process by some (costly) intervention. Recall that the result for optimality criteria for the classical Markov decision chains in discrete and continuous time setting turn out to be a very specific case of the considered model. The aim is to formulate optimality conditions for semi-Markov models with interventions and present algorithmical procedures for finding optimal solutions.

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2023-12-17
00:02
Good vs. Bad Volatility in Major Cryptocurrencies: The Dichotomy and Drivers of Connectedness
Šíla, Jan ; Kočenda, Evžen ; Kukačka, Jiří ; Krištoufek, Ladislav
Cryptocurrencies exhibit unique statistical and dynamic properties compared to those of traditional financial assets, making the study of their volatility crucial for portfolio managers and traders. We investigate the volatility connectedness dynamics of a representative set of eight major crypto assets. Methodologically, we decompose the measured volatility into positive and negative components and employ the time-varying parameters vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) framework to show distinct dynamics associated with market booms and downturns. The results suggest that crypto connectedness reflects important events and exhibits more variable and cyclical dynamics than those of traditional financial markets. Periods of extremely high or low connectedness are clearly linked to specific events in the crypto market and macroeconomic or monetary history. Furthermore, existing asymmetry from good and bad volatility indicates that information about market downturns spills over substantially faster than news about comparable market surges. Overall, the connectedness dynamics are predominantly driven by fundamental crypto factors, while the asymmetry measure also depends on macro factors such as the VIX index and the expected inflation.

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2023-11-12
00:02
On a stepladder model walking (with and without a decorator)
Polach, P. ; Prokýšek, R. ; Papáček, Štěpán
This work is related to our previous studies on underactuated biped robot models and has been motivated by the need to implement the previously developed sensor and control algorithms for the real-time movement of the laboratory walking robot, designed and built at the Department of Control Theory of the Institute of Information Theory and Automation of the Czech Academy of Sciences [1, 6, 7]. Underactuated biped robots with an upper body form a subclass of legged robots, see, e.g., [4] for a review on the control of underactuated mechanical systems and [2] for a study of an asymptotically stable walking for biped robots. It is obvious that in general, the walking control of underactuated walking robots is a more challenging problem than walking control of fully actuated walking robots. As follows, we examine the well-known mechanical system of the stepladder model with and without a decorator, whose role is substituted by an external inertial force according to the D’Alembert principle. It is well known, that stepladder walking is possible due to the periodic movement (pendulating) of an operator – decorator1 The rigorous dynamical analysis of stable cyclic walking of a class of stepladder models is presented in the next section.

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2023-08-06
00:02
Texture Spectral Similarity Criteria Comparison
Havlíček, Michal ; Haindl, Michal
Criteria capable of texture spectral similarity evaluation are presented and compared. From the fifteen evaluated criteria, only four criteria guarantee zero or minimal spectral ranking errors. Such criteria can support texture modeling algorithms by comparing the modeled texture with corresponding synthetic simulations. Another possible application is the development of texture retrieval, classification, or texture acquisition system. These criteria thoroughly test monotonicity and mutual correlation on specifically designed extensive monotonously degrading experiments.

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2023-08-06
00:02
Drivers of Private Equity Activity across Europe: An East-West Comparison
Kočenda, Evžen ; Shivendra, R.
We investigate the key macroeconomic and institutional determinants of fundraising and investment activities and compare them across Europe, covering 13 Central and Eastern European (CEE) and 16 Western European (WE) countries. Five macroeconomic variables and nineteen institutional variables are selected. These variables are studied using panel data analysis with fixed effects and random effects models over an eleven-year observation period (2010–2020). Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is applied to select the key variables. Our results suggest that macroeconomic variables have no significant impact on fundraising and investment activity in either region. Investment activity is a significant driver of fundraising across Europe. Similarly, fundraising and divestment activity are significant drivers of investments across Europe. Institutional variables, however, affect fundraising and investment activity differently. While investment freedom has a significant effect on funds raised in the WE and CEE countries, government integrity and trade freedom are both significant determinants of investments in both European regions. In addition, the results demonstrate that, in contrast to the WE region, fundraising in the CEE region is not country specific.

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2023-08-06
00:02
Determinants of Financial Inclusion in Africa and OECD Countries
Kočenda, Evžen ; Eshun, S. F.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been identified as one of the least financially inclusive regions in the world with a huge disparity in comparison to highly financially inclusive regions. Using a dynamic panel data analysis, we explore the factors influencing financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as a benchmark. We employ the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator and assess 31 SSA and 38 OECD countries from 2000-2021. We show that the differences in trade openness, banks' efficiency, income, and remittances are some macro-level factors that explain the variation in financial inclusion levels. We highlight the importance of quality literacy policies, trade improvement with restrictions on cross-border capital flows, and a more efficient financial system to promote financial inclusion.

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