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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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Do women with children have lower wage rate than childless women?
Lukášová, Nikola ; Brožová, Dagmar (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to demonstrate if women with children in the Czech Republic have a lower wage rate than childless women. The data from WageIndicator Foundation was processed by using the the least squares method. The conclusion is that motherhood has a negative impact on salaries. I also found that the depreciation of human capital influences only women with two or more children. It can be caused by the lenght of maternity leave. The main finding is that the wage penalty for motherhood actually exists. And the society and politicians should give the motherhood penalty more attention in the future.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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European funds and their usage for logistics projects in Czech Republic.
Číhalová, Denisa ; Jirsák, Petr (advisor) ; Joura, Adam (referee)
The thesis discusses the issue of freight villages and the possible usage of European funds for their construction. The topic is very actual because by the current program period 2014-2020 has appeared change concerning the financial support of multimodal freight transportation. The aim of this thesis is to determine, whether from the production companies operating in the automotive industry exists demand for such a freight villages. Needed information has been obtained on the basis of in-depths inteviews of manufacturing companies located in the region Vysočina.
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Výběr a implementace open source nástroje pro řízení portfolia projektů
Marek, Jan ; Chlapek, Dušan (advisor) ; Kučera, Jan (referee)
Methods and ways of implementation of changes and innovations in companies through project management are in today's society very well established. There exists methodologies, techniques and tools for the management of individual projects. However in a role of project manager, I very often faced the fact that companies are performing the project portfolio management in very intuitive way. This in itself leads to failed and prematurely terminated projects, initiation of the wrong projects or realisation of correct projects, but at the wrong time. Very often I have also recognized, that there is lack of awareness of fact, that there are also Open Source applications that can help with the organization's portfolio. This thesis deals with the definition of requirements, search and selection of proper OSS application and subsequent implementation. In the first part of this thesis I prepare a theoretical framework about PPM, and on that basis then identify and verify a set of requirements for selection of right OSS PPM application. The next section of thesis describes searching for suitable applications from a variety of sources, assessment against the requirements and the final selection. In the last part the implementation project is drafted, which aims to serve other colleagues in project management as one of the possible implementation paths. The outputs are then continuously confronted with experts in matter of projects and project management in the field of IT in order to maximize symbiosis between theory and real life experiences. Virtually every project management methodology defines the collection of already-proven techniques, best practices or lessons learned from the previous similar implementations. The main contribution of this thesis I see in fact that it contains not only the design of the project implementation, but also describes a logical path, what leads to the result. Therefore this thesis could be used as a base or discussed best practice, when a project of implementation of PPM application in place.
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Psychometric characteristics of Youth Self-Report in clinical sample
Urbánek, Tomáš ; Čermák, Ivo ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Schmidtová, Jana
The paper deals with reliability and validity analyses of the Youth Self-Report questionnaire by Thomas M. Achenbach. It is a method comprising eleven subscales, mostly syndromes of pathological conduct of children and adolescents. The data were obtained from the psychiatric patients (girls) from 12 to 18 years, most of them were exposed to family violence and abuse. The analyses of internal consistency and correlation analyses supporting the empirical validity of scales were conducted.
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Cultural support in Prague's districts
Mokrá, Jolana ; KAŠPAR, David (advisor) ; PROKOP, Petr (referee)
Diploma thesis ”Cultural support in Prague's districts” focuses on a current situation in municipal strategical management and support of culture in all Prague districts. The introduction emphasises the importance of each level of government in the management and support of culture through comparing specific cultural policies. The research is divided into two parts. First one depicts how culture is being understood on the municipal level and presents an overview of existing instruments for support and planning. The second part is focused on a few municipal districts that handle their culture policy with a particular strategy and consider it to be an irreplaceable part of a local development. The second part also examines what tactics and tools these municipal districts use for a realization of their strategic goals. In conclusion, this thesis proves why the role of the local official government is so important in the developement and implementation of culture.
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Influence of meadow management on the migration behavior of selected species of butterflies
Bubová, Terezie ; Langrová, Iva (advisor) ; Farkač, Jan (referee)
Migrations are the key process and one of the basic biological features, which allow survival of endangered species in fragmented landscape. In the last decades, agriculture intensification, industry and urbanization caused that number of natural butterfly habitats has significantly decreased. The localities originally suitable for butterflies are currnetly converted to farmland or building plots. This PhD thesis aimed to find a compromise solution of meadow management, which should allow a commercial use and concurrently do not jeopardize the continued existence of endangered or threatened species. The main idea of this study was in the intentional emigration causing in the middle of flight period, which should lead into resettlement of the population to another (potentially more suitable) locality. Possibility of aimed manipulation with butterfly emigrations would be considered as a major breakthrough in their protection.
The investigated species Phengaris nausithous (Bergsträsser, 1779) and Phengaris teleius (Bergsträsser, 1779) are both considered to be flagship species for protection of European butterflies at open meadows. This study is based on research, which was carried out in 2013-2015 at 17 patch in localities Dolní Labe, Czech Republic. In above mentioned years, one selected meadow was mowed in the middle of flight season and the emigrations were then monitored using mark-release-recapture method. Results of population and migration characteristics were calculated in MARK 8.1 software. Subsequently, the effect of mowing on emigration (comparison of emigrations from the meadow before and after mowing) was evaluated using Statistica 13.
The hypotheses of this study were based on the assumption, that the loss of resources after well-timed mowing should increase the activity of adult butterflies. During the monitoring, number of emigrations was increased only in flight season 2015. Unfortunately, the statistical evaluation did not show significant effect of mowing on migrations. On the other hand, the hypothesis dealing with colonization of nearest meadows was confirmed.
Effect of intentional emigration caused by management interventions was unfortunately not proved. However, we found out, that even though the population at one mowed meadow decreased clearly, the metapopulation size at the locality remained more or less stable.
At investigated (mowed) meadow, there was observed a sharp decline of P. nausithous abundance. On the other hand, P. teleius population was only slightly reduced. It is therefore conceivable, that P. teleius are not as susceptible to innapropriate term of mowing. The results obtained in our research conclusively displayed no possible positive effect of mowing in the middle of flight season and a necessity of suitable management maintenance at localities inhabited by Phengaris butterflies.
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Individual human odor as a forensic trail in criminal proceeding made by contact or contactless transmission and its resistance to physical agents
Santariová, Milena ; Bartoš, Luděk (advisor) ; Chmelíková, Eva (referee)
The dissertation thesis consists of four papers that have been published in scientific journals.
Study n. 1
The need to recover evidence from water is quite common in criminal investigation. The article deals with the possibility to collect human scent from such objects and with the ability of specially trained dogs to match such scent samples with scent samples collected from detained suspects. During an experiment, designed as a blind one, it has been proved, that human scent can survive on submerged objects and can be later used for scent identification.
Study n. 2
To collect odors the Czech Republic Police use special fabric sorbents manufactured under the registered mark ARATEX. Before use the fabric sorbent is treated by water vapor sterilization. After the scent identification the sorbent is destroyed. The goal of the study was to verify if the vapor sterilization is effective enough to remove human scent that has already penetrated into the sorbent structure or in other words if the sorbent can be exposed to vapor sterilization and then used again. Specially trained dogs were used to match starting odors with target odors in the line-ups. The results showed that dogs are able to correctly match human odors even after they have being exposed to vapor sterilization.
Study n. 3
The purpose of the study was to determine the temperature at which the human scent is degraded so that a dog would not be able to identify it. In contrast to expectations, eight dogs used in the experiment almost flawlessly identified human scents from five scent donors exposed to temperatures of 100°C, 200°C, 300°C, 400°C, 500°C, 600°C, 700°C, and 800°C. Only two of the dogs were able to identify 5 of 15 scent samples exposed to 900°C. No dog identified a scent exposed to 1000°C. Our study verified heat survivability of human scent far beyond existing expectations.
Study n. 4
We tested the hypothesis that if odor fallout (the release of a human odor onto an untouched object) in human subjects exists, then holding a hand above an absorbent will produce a detectable scent which will be subsequently matched in a detection test by trained dogs. Scents were collected from seven males to sterile cotton absorbent squares. The left hand was used to get the control scent and the right hand served as the target scent. Each experimental subject was sitting and his left hand was laid down on a cotton square for 3 min. The right hand was held 5 cm above another cotton square for 3 min. The scent identification was done by two specially trained police German shepherds. Both dogs performed 14 line-ups and correctly matched the collected scents of all test subjects. The results suggest the existence of human odor fallout, whereby a human scent trace is left by humans even if they do not touch an object.
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