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How much does intelligence predict lifetime income? A Meta-Analysis
Nguyenová, Van Anh ; Havránková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Bortnikova, Kseniya (referee)
Despite growing interest and extensive empirical research in economic returns to ability, a consensus regarding the true impact of intelligence on financial outcomes remains elusive. While psychology literature has made e orts to unify divergent findings, economics is yet to produce a comprehensive meta- analysis addressing this issue. Addressing this gap, our thesis utilizes cutting- edge meta-analytic techniques to analyze a unique dataset of 765 estimates drawn from 38 studies, providing a clearer picture of intelligence's impact on income. We uncover a notable positive publication bias, which, after correction, yields a diminished yet statistically significant e ect. Specifically, our results indicate that a standard deviation increase in cognitive ability results in a less than 10% increase in financial outcomes. Leveraging over 30 variables in our Bayesian and frequentist averaging models, we identify key determinants of this e ect, including the data collection year, outcome specifications, methodologi- cal choices, country-specific factors, and the number of estimates reported per study. Additionally, when adjusting for factors such as gender, residential loca- tion, work experience, and family attributes, we observe substantial variations in e ect size. JEL Classification J24, J31, D31, C11...
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Standing Tall Pays Off: A Meta-Analysis of Height Premium
Juračková, Martina ; Havránková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Polák, Petr (referee)
As has been demonstrated by empirical research, height is an important physical feature impacting various aspects of the life of an individual. This thesis deals with the relationship between height and income, also referred to as height premium. With the help of modern meta-analytic methods, we aim to quantitatively summarize the empirical evidence on the impact of height on income. After introducing the topic of height premium, data collection and methodological framework, we test for publication bias. The analysis is conducted on 1084 height premium estimates collected from 67 studies. The results of publication bias testing indicate that height premium literature contains positive publication bias which persists even after we control for additional variables capturing study characteristics or, in other words, the heterogeneity of collected estimates. Based on Bayesian Model Averaging results, we conclude that geographical factors, the longitudinal nature of the dataset, restriction of the dataset with respect to gender, or adding a gender control variable into the regression are the most important factors explaining the variability of height premium effects.
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The Causal Effect of Parents' Schooling on Children's Schooling: A Meta-Analysis
Pokorná, Anastasia ; Havránková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
One of the topics concerning education's improvement is the intergenerational transmission of education. The main goal of our study is to analyse the causal efect of parents' education on children's education. We collect 387 estimates of the causal efects from 23 studies. Using our dataset and meta-analytic methods, we test for the presence of publication bias in the literature and try to explain the heterogeneity in the results of the primary studies. After correction for publication bias, the mean becomes smaller than the mean reported in the literature and varies from 0.044 to 0.185. For exploring the heterogeneity of the estimates we use Bayesian Model Averaging and Frequentist Model Averaging. Our results suggest that there is a country heterogeneity in the estimates of the causal efect. Moreover, controlling for the size of a household in the original regression is important for the explanation of the diferences in the results of the primary studies. In addition to it, we collect 605 estimates of the non- causal associations from 39 studies and analyse the publication bias and the heterogeneity of results also using this sample. 1
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Are Women More Risk-Averse than Men? A Meta-Analysis
Černý, Patrik ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Bauer, Michal (referee)
Are women more risk averse than men? While a large portion of economic literature confirms this phenomenon, the link between gender and risk aver- sion has not been found to be consistent. We investigate the difference in risk aversion between genders employing meta-analytic methods on 147 estimates collected from 25 primary studies, converted to partial correlation coefficients. We find positive publication bias in our dataset, suggesting that the reported estimates in primary studies are exaggerated. After adjusting for the publica- tion bias, men do not seem to be more risk-taking than women. In addition, we employ Bayesian Model Averaging to examine heterogeneity among the es- timates, controlling for additional 68 variables reflecting the design of primary studies. Based on the heterogeneity results, we find that the publication bias in our dataset is driven by 'lower quality' studies based on the RePEc ranking of economic journals. This finding also aligns with our robustness checks on sub- sets divided according to the quality of journals publishing the primary studies.
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Immigration and Wages: A Meta-Analysis
Nepivoda, Lukáš ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara (referee)
Increasing number of international migrants in last decades attracts the attention of researchers who attempt to estimate the effect of immigration on the wages of native workers. Despite the extensive body of empirical literature, there is no consensus about the true effect. We employ modern techniques in the meta-analysis to address this question. Using original dataset consisting of 644 estimates from 20 primary studies which reflects the last 30 years of the research on the topic in hand we inspect the literature for the presence of publication bias and explain the heterogeneity in the estimates of primary studies. Although, there is some uncertainty about our results, findings from linear and non-linear tests for publication bias suggests the overall effect close to zero or slightly positive. Moreover, we find an evidence that immigration causes distributional effects which contribute to wealth inequality.
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Marginal Abatement Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Meta-Analysis
Křížková, Alžběta ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Ščasný, Milan (referee)
This thesis uses up-to-date meta-analysis methods to produce a systematic summary of the literature on marginal abatement costs (MAC) of greenhouse gas emissions. It collects 242 MAC estimates for 2030 and 2050 from 59 studies. Besides the usual tests for publication bias, the study employs several modern non-linear tests, such as the TOP 10, the Kink method, the Stem method, and others. Subsequently, Bayesian model averaging is performed for the first time in MAC literature to reveal a mild negative publication bias for the MAC in 2050. The thesis reveals that newer studies provide higher estimates of MAC. Other factors influencing MAC estimation are the size of stabilisation targets, emissions baseline, utilising the LEAP model, the inclusion of other greenhouse gases besides carbon dioxide, and considering the long-run decision making. Several robustness checks are conducted along the way to confirm the selection of the dataset and the robustness of the BMA analysis (using weighted BMA, FMA, OLS). The true value of MAC in 2030 corrected for publication bias is around 32 EUR/tCO2-eq, while for 2050, it is 59 EUR/tCO2-eq. 1
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Income Elasticity of Water Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Vlach, Tomáš ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
If policymakers address water scarcity with the demand-oriented approach, the income elasticity of water demand is of pivotal importance. Its estimates, however, differ considerably. We collect 307 estimates of the income elasticity of water demand reported in 62 studies, codify 31 variables describing the estimation design, and employ Bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty inherent to any meta-analysis. The studies were published between 1972 and 2015, which means that this meta-analysis covers a longer period of time than two previous meta-analyses on this topic combined. Our results suggest that income elasticity estimates for developed countries do not significantly differ from income elasticity estimates for developing countries and that different estimation techniques do not systematically produce different values of the income elasticity of water demand. We find evidence of publication selection bias in the literature on the income elasticity of water demand with the use of both graphical and regression analysis. We correct the estimates for publication selection bias and estimate the true effect beyond bias, which reaches approximately 0.2. 1
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Meta-Analysis in Economics: Application to Measuring the Euro's Trade Effect
Polák, Petr ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Havránková, Zuzana (referee)
Meta-analysis is a very strong and effective tool designed for the synthesis of results of empirical research. It provides a possibility to make reliable conclusions and offers more systematic and unbiased view at empirical studies than do narrative reviews. This thesis begins with description of meta-analysis from the theoretical point of view and, therefore, is the first Czech-written methodology of modern meta-analysis suitable for economics. This part is followed by an applied meta-analysis that investigates the euro effect on common trade exchange, and the analysis is focused on publication bias and the use of the multilevel random effects model. The empirical part is based on 2580 estimates gathered from 33 studies that investigate the relationship between euro and trade volume. The meta-analysis reveals the presence of publication bias, confirms the economic research cycle hypothesis and estimates, according to the available literature, that the true Rose effect lies probably between 2 and 6 percent.
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Price Elasticity of Water Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Thoma, Richard ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Janotík, Tomáš (referee)
Meta-analysis is a statistical method that allows us to combine results of em- pirical research. A theoretical summary helped to select appropriate model for the empirical part of this thesis - a meta-analysis focused on the price elas- ticity of residential water demand. A mixed-effects multilevel model, which corrects for selection bias, heteroskedasticity and within-study correlation, was employed. Publication bias was found only for subsample excluding data from the western part of the United States. Heckman meta-regression shows that the true price elasticity of water demand is -0,246. Finally variation in results across studies is explained. Using average price instead of margi- nal, the discrete-continuous choice model and data from the western part of the United States for water demand modelling will result in higher values of estimated elasticity. 1
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The Interest Elasticity of Money Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Slouková, Eliška ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
Even though precise evaluation of money demand function is essential for cen- tral banking and for the right determination of the transmission mechanism, economists have not reached a consensus about the underlying determinants of money demand function neither their magnitude and direction. Researchers differ even in the selection of measures used for the main variables - income, and interest rate. While the heterogeneity in elasticity estimates of the former one has been scrutinize in several quantitative surveys, to the best of our knowledge, there has not been compiled any meta-analysis focusing on differences among the interest rate elasticities of the money demand. Therefore, we collected 53 studies reporting 1 094 estimates of interest rate elasticity. Implementing both the state-of-the-art methods and those proposed only recently, we have found out that researches are prone to selective reporting. Firstly, our results shows that negative publication bias is present in empirical studies of the money de- mand and increases the average elasticity estimate approximately three times (in absolute terms). Secondly, negative highly precise estimates are more likely to be compared to their imprecise counterparts. Additionally, we scrutinize po- tential sources of heterogeneity among individual...
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