National Repository of Grey Literature 64 records found  1 - 10nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.01 seconds. 
Do Central Bank FX Reserves Matter for Inflation?
Keblúšek, Martin ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
01 Abstract Foreign exchange reserves are a useful tool and a buffer but maintaining an amount that is too large can be costly to the economy. Recent accumulation of these reserves points to the importance of this topic. This thesis focuses on one specific part of the effect of FX reserves on the economy - the inflation. I use panel data for 74 countries from the year 1996 to the year 2017. There is a certain degree of model uncertainty for which this thesis accounts for by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) estimation technique. The findings from my model averaging estimations show FX reserves to not be of importance for inflation determination with close to no change when altering lags, variables, when limiting the sample to fixed FX regimes nor when limiting the sample to inflation targeting regimes. The most important variables are estimated to be a central bank financial strength proxy, exchange rate depreciation, money supply, inflation targeting, and capital account openness. These results are robust to lag changes, prior changes, and for the most part remain the same when Pooled OLS is used.
Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach
Molnár, Vojtěch ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach Vojtěch Molnár Abstract The thesis compares price level targeting and inflation targeting regimes in a New Keynesian model without rational expectations hypothesis. Economic agents instead form their expectations using heuristics-they choose between a few simple rules based on their past forecasting performance. Two main specifications of the price level targeting model are examined-the agents form expectations either about price level or about inflation, which is ex ante not equivalent because of sequential nature of the model. In addition, several formulations of the forecasting rules are considered. According to the results, price level targeting is preferred in the case with expectations created about price level under the baseline calibration; but it is sensitive to some model parameters. Furthermore, when expectations are created about inflation, price level targeting over time loses credibility and leads to divergence of the economy. On the other hand, inflation targeting model functions stably. Therefore, while potential benefits of price level targeting have been confirmed under certain assumptions, the results suggest that inflation targeting constitutes significantly more robust choice for monetary policy.
Asset prices and macroeconomics: towards a unified macro-finance framework
Maršál, Aleš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee) ; Kónya, István (referee) ; Pástor, Luboš (referee)
Asset prices and macroeconomics: towards a unified macro-finance framework Aleš Maršál March 30, 2020 Abstract The dissertation consists of three papers focused on fiscal policy and explaining what determines the dynamics of cross-sectional distribution of bond prices. The connecting factor of the thesis is however not just its main theme but also the used methodology. The valuation of bonds and effects of studied policies are endogenous outcome of the full-fledged macro-finance dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The first chapter provides broader context and non-technical summary of the three papers in following chapters. The first paper studies the role of trend inflation in bond pricing. Motivated by recent empirical findings that emphasize low-frequency movements in inflation as a key determinant of term structure, we introduce trend inflation into the workhorse macro-finance model. We show that this compromises the earlier model success and delivers implausible busi- ness cycle and bond price dynamics. We document that this result applies more generally to non-linearly solved models with Calvo pricing and trend inflation and is driven by the behavior of price dispersion, which is i) counterfactually high and ii) highly inaccurately approximated. We highlight the channels be- hind the undesired performance...
Balance sheet implications of the Czech National Bank’s exchange rate commitment
Franta, Michal ; Holub, Tomáš ; Saxa, Bronislav
We present projections of the Czech National Bank’s balance sheet after the discontinuation of the exchange rate commitment. Our model addresses the situation of a large central bank balance sheet with assets consisting almost exclusively of foreign exchange reserves in the circumstances of a catching-up economy exhibiting an exchange rate appreciation trend. Apart from the baseline projection, several counter-factual scenarios are discussed. The scenarios concern the evolution of the balance sheet in the cases of no exchange rate commitment and a commitment with earlier discontinuation. The simulated counter-factual duration of negative CNB equity, and thus the period of no profit distribution to the government, does not differ substantially from the baseline. The fiscal implications of the exchange rate commitment are thus estimated to be relatively small and related only to the period after the year 2030. Our stochastic simulations, however, show that the uncertainty bands are very wide. In addition, we show that the simulation tool can be employed to discuss the consequences of a long-run decline in currency in circulation, the composition of the asset side and the resumption of foreign exchange income sales by the central bank.
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Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Visegrad Group
Pavlikova, Patricia ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
Title: Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Visegrad Group Author: Patricia Pavlikova Department: Institut of Economic Siences Supervisor: doc.Mgr. Tomáš Holub Ph.D, IES Abstract: The main objective of this diploma thesis is to estimate equilibrium exchange rates for four countries forming Visegrad Group partnership and to evaluate whether their exchange rates are overvalued, undervalued or in equilibrium with their economic development and with market. We focused on two widely used models, Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model and estimated several alternations of each model. Results where then compared and we derived implications for each country. We could clearly see that each country is developing differently in terms of equilibrium exchange rates. While the exchange rate of Czech Republic seems to oscillate steadily around its equilibrium value, we spotted higher misalignments for the rest of the country. Also, we saw that Hungary is on path of constant depreciation, which is related with economic issues country is struggling. Polish Zloty is characterized by overall high amplitude of movements of its exchange rate and by frequent undervaluation of the currency, implying favorable development of the economy, taking into...
Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stabiliy in the Post-Crisis Framework
Malovaná, Simona ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee) ; Juselius, John Mikael (referee) ; Šaroch, Stanislav (referee)
This dissertation consists of four empirical papers analysing and discussing central bank policies in the post-crisis period. After the global financial crisis central bankers and other regulators have faced many new challenges, including a prolonged period of acommodative monetary policy, side effects of monetary policy easing on financial stability and interaction of macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policy. On top of that, policy makers must deal with uncertainty surrounding the transmission and the effectiveness of newly introduced macroprudential measures. The empirical analyses focus primarily on the Czech Republic and its banking sector, with an exception of the first essay. Using data for the Czech Republic and five euro area countries, the first essay shows that monetary tightening has a negative impact on the credit-to-GDP ratio and banks' capital-to-asset ratio, while these effects have strengthened considerably since mid-2011. This supports the view that accommodative monetary policy contributes to a build- up of financial vulnerabilities, i.e. it boosts the credit cycle. The second essay assesses the transmission of higher additional capital requirements stemming from capital buffers and Pillar 2 add-ons on banks' capital ratio, capital surplus and implicit risk weights. The results...
The Effects of Monetary Policy on Housing Prices: Evidence from the Czech Republic
Michalec, Jan ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis explores the relationship between interest rates, house prices and main macroeconomic variables. In particular, I examine how monetary policy affects house prices in the Czech Republic. The hypotheses assume that an increase in the interest rate that tends to decrease house prices also reduces output and inflation simultaneously. Therefore, the latter would imply that the monetary authority faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability. The empirical analysis is based on a vector autoregression model and the monetary policy shock is retrieved by the Cholesky decomposition. As for the results, the findings of the thesis conclude that there is a costly trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability within the Czech economy.
Reinforcement learning in Agent-based macroeconomic model
Vlk, Bořivoj ; Skuhrovec, Jiří (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
Utilizing game theory, learning automata and reinforcement learning concepts, thesis presents a computational model (simulation) based on general equilibrium theory and classical monetary model. Model is based on interacting Constructively Rational agents. Constructive Ratio- nality has been introduced in current literature as machine learning based concept that allows relaxing assumptions on modeled economic agents information and ex- pectations. Model experiences periodical endogenous crises (Fall in both production and con- sumption accompanied with rise in unemployment rate). Crises are caused by firms and households adopting to a change in price and wage levels. Price and wage level adjustments are necessary for the goods and labor market to clear in the presence of technological growth. Finally, model has good theoretical background and large potential for further de- velopment. Also, general properties of games of learning entities are examined, with special focus on sudden changes (shocks) in the game and behavior of game's play- ers, during recovery from which rigidities can emerge. JEL Classification D80, D83, C63, E32, C73, Keywords Learning, Information and Knowledge, Agent-based, Reinforcement learning, Business cycle, Stochastic and Dynamic Games, Simulation, Modeling Author's e-mail...

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