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Prospects of Monetary Integration in the ASEAN
Juhás, Šimon ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Ehrenbergerová, Dominika (referee)
The thesis examines the suitability of the ASEAN region for a currency union. The evaluation is conducted primarily through a model developed by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1996b), used by them originally to assess the prospects of European currency integration. The equation of this model is first estimated anew using a sample focused on Asia containing data from the last decade. The resulting equation, despite problems linked with certain coefficients, is used to construct the OCA indexes, which in turn serve as the basis for assessing the preparedness of the ASEAN for a single currency. The discussion of the results concludes overall rather against the idea of a monetary union in Southeast Asia. Malaysia and Singapore are identified as having notably better chances of forming a successful currency union according to the value of the corresponding index. Besides this analysis, commentaries on several factors crucially linked with the issue of monetary integration are provided. This includes an overview of Southeast Asia's developments concerning the factors, which are used for evaluating adherence to the Maastricht criteria in Europe. Throughout the thesis, numerous indicators are found, which suggest that a monetary union in the ASEAN might currently not be considered a desirable option.
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Two Essays on Inflation Targeting
Matějů, Jakub ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
Title: Two Essays on Inflation Targeting Author: Mgr. Jakub Matějů Department: Institute of Economic Studies Supervisor: Roman Horváth, PhD. Abstract: The thesis consists of two essays on inflation targeting. The first essay examines how do monetary authorities set their inflation targets. Survey of central banks' communication regarding the target is presented, theoretical model is developed and finally empirical analysis is conducted on a panel of inflation targeting countries. This pioneering analysis of the topic leads us to conclusion that inflation targets are influenced by more variables than central banks admit. In addition to past and foreign inflation, inflation variability and GDP growth we find significant impact of central bank credibility and other institutional factors. The short second essay surveys literature assessing performance of inflation targeting and outlines perspectives of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. The conclusion is that if inflation targeting central banks stick to their best practice in transparency and communication and remain open to innovations, inflation targeting will have a good chance to score well even in the periods of turmoil.
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Life time of climbing ropes for climbing a rappeling on the artificial wall
Kužel, Martin ; Vomáčko, Ladislav (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
Title: Utilization of Modern Methods of Immobilization (casts), at Individuals with an Injury of Locomotive System, in The Czech Republic Objectives: The main objective of this thesis is to bring an actual information about proportion of using casts, in comparison with other methods of conservative immobilization, at individuals with an injury of locomotive system, in The Czech Republic. Moreover, the work aims to identify 3 most frequent reasons for using cast and 3 reasons for not using it. Methods: There is a sample of respondents, selected from professionals dealing with a treatment of locomotive system (n = 204). The sample consists of medical doctors working in hospitals (n = 67) as well as doctors working in out-patient ambulatory care segment (n = 137). With respect to doctors specialization, the sample consits of surgeons (n = 141) and orthopaedists (n = 63). Selection of the sample of respondents was randomized. Data were gathered by telephonic questioning (interview). Based on quantitative analysis of the data, both - relative usage of casts and three reasons supporting or limiting its utilization - were identified. The questionnaire was finalized, with respect to outcomes of an initial pilot study (n = 4). Respondents for the pilot study were chosen by quote selection. Results: Plaster...
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Inflation of virtual currencies
Skuhrovec, Jiří ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Strecker, Ondřej (referee)
This papers examines formation of prices in virtual economy World of Warcraft, and its interconnection with real economy through Real Money Trade - exchange of in-game currency for real cash. Paper nds, that WoW economy is heavily leveraged through this channel, namely that it determines price level within the game. It empirically shows that causes of long-run in ation of currency are EUR/CNY FX rate and patches issued by game operator. Later on author builds general microeconomic model of arti cial scarcity, to explain motivation of game operator to in ate own currency. Last chapter is devoted to potential of virtual currencies, argumenting with thoughts of Karl Menger, that these currencies may be able to compete with real ones. Paper heavily relies on unique data, collected using software developed by author.
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The Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic in a World Context
Timko, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
In this thesis we examine the effect of foreign exchange interventions in small open economy, focusing on the Czech experience. In the first part we model volatility development before and after the intervention using GARCH model. In the second part we estimate relationship between macroeconomical variables using vector autoregressive model. In this part we estimate impulse response function of exchange rate and inflation. In second part of VAR modeling we provide counterfactual analysis, which compare actual development of variables with alternative scenario in which the interventions would not happen . Our results suggest that the interventions is associated with few months delayed decrease in volatility. Base on scenario analysis the interventions increased inflation by approximately 1.5 % and without the intervention the economy would in deflation around -1 % nowadays. KEYWORDS: Vector autoregression, Volatility modelling, Monetary policy, Intervention Author's e-mail: jantimko16@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail: tomas.holub@cnb.cz
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Monetary Policy and House Prices in the US: Evidence from Time-Varying VAR Model
Brunová, Kristýna ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis examines the effects of monetary policy shocks on the housing market. To this end, TVP-VAR model with dynamic dimension selection and stochastic volatility is estimated using monthly data for the United States over the period 1999-2017. Moreover, the model features estimating the optimal value of the Bayesian shrinkage coefficient in a time-varying manner. Since the sample covers the Zero Lower Bound period, Wu-Xia shadow rate is employed to measure the stance of monetary policy. To assess the link between housing variables and monetary policy, impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions are provided. However, due to the time-varying nature of the model, they are estimated only for selected time periods that correspond both to the events that most likely influenced the path of macroeconomic and financial variables and to periods of low economic uncertainty. The main results are threefold. First, the model suggests that monetary policy shocks can contribute to developments in house prices. Second, the stimulative monetary policy positively affects residential investment and negatively affects mortgage rates, however, the effects are not significant due to the large confidence bands of the impulse responses. Third, higher values of the shrinkage hyperparameter are crucial for...
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Convergence or Divergence: The Analysis of Economic Growth in the CIS Countries
Hakimov, Durbek ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
This dissertation examines from a comparative perspective the growth experience for a sample of twelve countries of the former Soviet Union over the period from 1991 to 2008. Two meth- ods of econometric analysis are applied: cross-section regressions and dynamic panel data esti- mation techniques. The main focus of the study has been to empirically establish whether coun- tries in the region are converging or diverging in terms of their income per capita and to find important sources of cross-country differences which determine the shape of this process. I did not find statistically significant support for conditional convergence in any cross-section period. It is partly supported by the increased dispersion of per capita income levels during the sample period. Meanwhile, panel data fixed-effects and GMM methods provide strong support for con- ditional convergence hypothesis. The first-differenced GMM estimator indicates a rate of con- vergence of around 2 per cent a year, which is surprisingly similar to the standard cross-section findings in empirical literature. However, it could be the result of the cyclical behaviour of out- put during transition. In general, results indicate that structural transformation is not yet over in most of the countries. Therefore progress in market-oriented reforms and...
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Inflation targeting performance in emerging economies and some lessons for Moldova
Talasimova, Irina ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Mejstřík, Michal (referee)
The present paper has attempted to provide an empirically argumented basis on the existing conflict about effectiveness of IT regime on lowering inflation and inflation volatility. In the first part we perform panel analysis on a group of 43 emerging and developing economies for a more recent period ranging from 1997 to 2011, distinguishing between normal and crisis times as well as between geographical regions. Differently from common studies we applied dynamic panel model specification that controls for reverse causality of regime adoption. Despite broad arguments addresing IT ineffectiveness, our results support the regime and imply that shifting to IT will lower both inflation and inflation volatility in normal times. Model specification during the external shocks was inconclusive on the selected sample with relatively recent IT history. Regarding the geographical IT performance, we outlined that regime effectiveness was uniform along analyzed regions. In the second part we perform a preliminary analysis of a developing economy IT experience and conclude that, even though there are some problems of technical nature and main policy rate is still a weak instrument of transmission channel, the Republic of Moldova chose right time for regime adoption and has made considerable progress towards the...
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Exit strategy - new challenge to central banking : European Central Bank's experience
Bezvoleva, Tatiana ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Raková, Marie (referee)
To date, three years into the first global financial and economic crisis of the XXI century, central banks find themselves with significantly expanded balance sheets as a result of the substantial support they provided to the markets through both conventional and unconventional monetary policy tools implemented in response to the turmoil. As the crisis loses its intensity, new policies need to be designed in order to unwind the significant support so as not to derail the recovery and not to pose risks to price and financial stability. For this a proper exit strategy needs to be designed. In the literature to date there is no well-defined notion to what an exit strategy is and, most importantly, there is no unique answer on the principles it should follow. In this thesis the author attempts to identify the determinants of a successful exit strategy and analyse the main challenges policymakers face when designing one. Additionally, the author places a great emphasis on the risks of premature and delayed exits and on the past experiences with this issue. The results are based, to a large degree, on extensive review of literature, which, due to the recent provenience of the problem and its acute importance, is represented in a big part by central bank authorities' speeches, conference papers and some very...
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