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Origin of Current High Inflation in the Czech Economy (2022)
Dvořáková, Natálie ; Šestořád, Tomáš (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis presents new evidence on the relative importance of seven domestic and foreign inflation drivers in the Czech Republic over the past two decades. A structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with short-run zero and sign restrictions is estimated within a Bayesian framework, enabling the decomposi- tion of the sources of inflation. A comparative forecast error variance decompo- sition (FEVD) analysis is performed among three baseline models to investigate the underlying causes of the recent surge in inflation in the Czech economy. The results show a growing prominence of both domestic and foreign supply factors. Furthermore, over the entire period of 2000Q3-2022Q3, demand shocks contribute more than supply shocks to the changes in the price level. This pa- per also highlights the remarkable role of fiscal policy shocks, while monetary conditions have a minor impact. Additionally, the effectiveness of monetary policy tools is evaluated. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords inflation, SVAR model, monetary policy, supply and demand shocks Title Origin of Current High Inflation in the Czech Economy (2022)
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(Not) increasing social benefits in 2012–2023: an overview
Janský, Petr ; Kolář, Daniel
In this overview, we map trends in the value of social benefits over the past ten years and compare them to trends in inflation, average salaries and old age pensions. If the real purchase power of benefits is to remain stable, they should be raised at least at the same rate as inflation. If we want social benefits to continue to provide the same level of financial security, keeping pace with economic developments in the long term, then their value should rise at approximately the same rate as the average salary, and spending on benefits should increase at approximately the same rate as GDP.
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Can Bitcoin serve as an inflation hedge in the USA, Euro area, and Czech markets?
Volkov, Aleksandr ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Šestořád, Tomáš (referee)
Since the 1970s, economists have started studying the concept of inflation hedging as a way to protect investments. With the recent high inflation rates, investors might be interested if newly created assets such as cryptocurrencies can be effective against inflation. This thesis paper aims to find out whether thelargest crypto asset Bitcoin can be used as an inflation hedge. To answer this question, Fisher coefficient estimation and hedging demand for the US, Euro Area, and the Czech Republic for the period between November 2014 and October 2022 will be analyzed. In addition, the vector autoregressive model (VAR)will be used for the US market in the same time frame. The results showed overall positive Bitcoin returns but all three methods indicated no or negative correlation between inflation rates in three regions and Bitcoin returns. The thesis paper concludes that Bitcoin cannot be used as an inflation hedge as notall requirements are met. Keywords Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, gold, inflation, inflation hedge, Fisher coefficient,VAR model Title Can Bitcoin serve as an inflation hedge asset in the US, Euro Area, andCzech markets?
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The Czech National Bank and Inflation Targeting as an Instrument of Maintaining Price Stability
Pokorný, Tomáš ; Kohajda, Michael (advisor) ; Sejkora, Tomáš (referee)
Title: The Czech National Bank and Inflation Targeting as an Instrument of Maintaining Price Stability Author: Ing. Tomáš Pokorný Supervisor: doc. JUDr. Michael Kohajda Ph.D. When performing monetary policy, the central bank can follow inflation targeting or other monetary policy rules. Following a rule, the central bank can efficiently stabilize economic development in the long run, because the changes in the mon- etary policy given by the policy rule are included in the rational expectations of agents. It might seem that the consistency of monetary policy is secured by following the policy rule only. The potential discretion, however, remains in the different preferences of the bank board members, which may completely change monetary policy decisions within the given monetary policy rule. Current leg- islation does not prevent this discretion by any means as the decision of bank board members' appointment is awarded to the Czech president exclusively, who can completely disrupt the monetary policy consistency with the previous bank board. The changes in the bank board preferences are analyzed using the GMM method on two subsamples in the period of 1996 Q3 - 2021 Q2. The empirical analysis shows that the Czech National Bank followed its constitutional duty and reacted with its policy rates to the...
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PPI and CPI: What is the relationship?
Červený, David ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis examines the relationship between the PPI and the CPI in the Czech Republic and the euro area. The primary method used in this thesis is the Granger causality test. Granger causality between the price indices is tested for in a bivariate model and also conditional on other variables describing the development of real GDP, a given monetary aggregate and wages. The most apparent conclusion that can be drawn from the empirical results indicates that the PPI Granger-causes the CPI in the Czech Republic and that there is no Granger causality going from the CPI to the PPI in the euro area. These results are consistent with conventional economic theory, which suggests a pass-through effect in the production chain going from producer prices to consumer prices.
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Inflation inequality in the Czech Republic
Adunts, Davit ; Kurylo, Bohdana ; Špeciánová, J.
This project employs Czech Household Budget Survey and Consumer Price Index data to create consumer price indices for various population subgroups in the Czech Republic. We find that subgroup-specific inflation rates are very similar to the inflation rate for all the non-elderly population, with the exception of single-parent households, which experienced a higher inflation rate in 2022 than did the other subgroups. However, the difference was reasonably modest. Importantly, we found that inflation issuing from housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels is significantly higher for low-income and single-parent households than for high-income and two-parent households. The difference is particularly significant for single-parent households, for which inflation due to increases in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs represents 40.15 percent of their overall inflation burden compared to 28.44 percent for two-parent households. This finding suggests that the recent increases in electricity and gas prices may exert particularly harmful effects on single-parent households unless the government provides the support necessary to mitigate the adverse effects of rising prices. While all households are being affected by rising living costs, single-parent and low-income households should be prioritized in terms of support. In addition, we calculated that for low-income and single-parent households, the total loss of purchasing power due to inflation amounts to CZK 15,179 and CZK 20,445, respectively.
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Collection of exercises of financial mathematics for lower secondary school
HRUŠKOVÁ, Veronika
This bachelor´s thesis is focused on exercises and their solutions from financial mathematics. The collection is for the lower secondary school. The starting points for this thesis are the National Financial Education Strategy, Framework Education Programme for primary schools, School Education Programme of selected schools, Maths textbook for the lower secondary school. The first part contains a definition of the concept of financial literacy, as well as an assessment of the current situation of financial literacy. The second part presents exercises that are divided by curriculum. The exercises are aimed at using mathematical operations to work with finances in everyday life. There is a concisely defined theory on each topic.
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Inflation Trends in the Czech Economy 1990-2006 (Documentational Survey)
PROKOPOVÁ, Kateřina
The aim of this bachelor work is to describe the summary documentation of inflation trends from the early 1990s up to present. The first part si presents the inflation primary information, its determination by the Czech National Bank, its stages and forms. There are the rate of inflation characterization and its konds at not least.The secon section is focused into the chronological developnemt of inflation in the Czech Republic divided itno five parts: the transtormation beginning (1990-1993), the trend of prices in 1994-1998, the perion 1999-2001, the inflation progress in 2002-2005 and the first three months of 2006.
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Deterrents of capital flight: Evidence from post-Soviet countries
Simachyova, Valeriya ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This master thesis studies the effect of government debt, corporate taxation, and inflation rate on the trade misreporting gap. Furthermore, this thesis attempted to replicate and expand the analysis of Kellenberg and Levinson (2019) on the subset of post-Soviet countries on a greater timespan to identify whether a generalized conclusion is applicable for all the developing countries. The data was collected from numerous resources (UN Comtrade, CEPII, World bank, GCR, De Sousa (2012)), with the final sample consisting of 127 countries where the leading trading partner was one of the countries from the post-Soviet union in the timespan between 2002 and 2020. It was found that for the exporting country, the government debt is positively associated with the trade gap, while there is no significant impact of corporate taxes and inflation. On the contrary, for the importer, the smaller the government debt, the larger the trade misreporting gap; the higher corporate taxation has a positive association with the illicit behavior, which can be explained by the incentive to misreport traded value; the inflation rate does not affect the trade reporting gap. Change of the data sample neither significantly affected trade gap distribution nor affected the conclusions of the earlier research.
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High Frequency Price Index of Construction Materials
Štefl, Josef ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
The paper explores the possibilities of using big data in economics in an effort to shift research from a study of statistical samples towards basic populations. To this end, the Construction Materials Price Index was created to capture price level movements in this market segment on weekly basis. This specific field was chosen because, despite its signi- ficance, it has not yet been examined in much detail by the Czech Statistical Office. The underlying index data represent the complete offer of the three most significant Czech eshops with building materials, which is periodically obtained through web scraping. The research took place between October 2021 and June 2022. The nine-month evolu- tion of the index reflects the economic recovery after the covid-19 pandemic, but also the sharp market response after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This bachelor thesis contains a detailed description of the methods used as well as a thorough analysis of the results. JEL classification Keywords Title C43, C55, C80, E31, E37 inflation, high frequency price index, big data, web scraping, construction materials price level High Frequency Price Index of Construction Materials High Frequency Price Index of Construction Materials Josef Štefl
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