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Independence and Transmission of Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies: The Case of Canada and the Czech Republic
Budinský, Jan ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Buliskeria, Nino (referee)
The question of whether a small open economy (SOE) with highly integrated financial markets can shield itself from the influence of foreign monetary policy and preserve its monetary independence has been the subject of extensive research over the last decades. The growing integration of world economies owing to globalization, the impacts of recent global pandemic on them leading to the use of unconventional monetary policies, and the consequent high levels of inflation across the globe have highlighted the importance of further study of this problematic. This thesis focuses on two small open economies from different currency areas, Canada and the Czech Republic, and evaluates the monetary policies of their central banks, concentrating primarily on their independence, secondarily on the transmission mechanism of the respective policies, and also on their foreign exchange reserves. A comparative analysis of these two countries and their monetary policies on such scale and complexity has not yet been made before. The results of cointegration testing of vector autoregression models consisting of three-month interbank interest rates representing the monetary policies of the countries under investigation revealed that both Canada and the Czech Republic exhibited a considerable degree of monetary...
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Do Central Bank FX Reserves Matter for Inflation?
Keblúšek, Martin ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
01 Abstract Foreign exchange reserves are a useful tool and a buffer but maintaining an amount that is too large can be costly to the economy. Recent accumulation of these reserves points to the importance of this topic. This thesis focuses on one specific part of the effect of FX reserves on the economy - the inflation. I use panel data for 74 countries from the year 1996 to the year 2017. There is a certain degree of model uncertainty for which this thesis accounts for by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) estimation technique. The findings from my model averaging estimations show FX reserves to not be of importance for inflation determination with close to no change when altering lags, variables, when limiting the sample to fixed FX regimes nor when limiting the sample to inflation targeting regimes. The most important variables are estimated to be a central bank financial strength proxy, exchange rate depreciation, money supply, inflation targeting, and capital account openness. These results are robust to lag changes, prior changes, and for the most part remain the same when Pooled OLS is used.
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Foreign exchange reserves and their influence on performance of Czech National Bank
Sýkora, Tomáš ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This bachelor's thesis focuses on foreign exchange reserves, which are closely related to performance of central bank, namely Czech National Bank. Theoretical part sketches out general concept of foreign exchange reserves and how to understand them in a balance sheet. Additionally, it shows their purpose in foreign exchange rate systems which are more detailed described bellow and what influence they have on performance of national bank. Practical part shows a development of foreign exchange reserves of Czech National Bank since 1993. First, due to fixed foreign exchange rate and then since 2013 due to intervention of Czech National Bank, it accumulated a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves in its balance sheet. That was the cause of open foreign exchange position. The thesis analyses the relation between foreign exchange reserves and performance of Czech National Bank, which hugely depends on revaluation differences of foreign exchange reserves. It also focuses on a dilemma, whether it truly is a problem for Czech National Bank to suffer a loss from expected appreciation of Czech Koruna after leaving the intervention obligation.
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Indicators of currency and banking crisis
Kašpar, Jan ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on indicators of currency and banking crises and examines their reliability. The analysis is performed on real economic events - the monetary crisis analysiswill be related to the crisis in Russia in 1998 and in the banking crisis we will examine events in Ireland in 2008-2010. In case of both crises we will try to make a strict definition because the economic literature nor any law regulation do not offer any, whereas for time series analysis is the determination of the outbreak and the end of the crisis crucial. We also look at the change in the understanding of the financial crisis, from the concept of monetary, banking and debt crises typical for the end of the last century and gradually transitioning to a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis as a systemic crisis that represents the current direction of economic thought. The main objective is to analyze the reliability of currency crisis and banking crises indicators on the example of selected economic events. We will try to follow the development of indicators within a few years and look for the development trend, predicting the impending problems. There are also described some methodological problems concerning the research of indicators of financial crises. In the end we will have a comparison of both countries and emphasize what they have in common and what is different.
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China as the biggest foreign holder of U.S. government bonds: analysis of impacts on U.S. foreign policy
Holuša, Petr ; Kozák, Kryštof (advisor) ; Sehnálková, Jana (referee)
This thesis deals with the question whether China's purchases of American government bonds affect the foreign policy of the USA. The first part analyses bonds as instruments for debt financing and explains why China is motivated to buy American government bonds. The second part is concerned with the relationship between the lender and the borrower and assumes that the relationship between deficit financing and a change in the foreign policy towards the lender is possible, an example being the relationship of the USA and Mexico in the 1980s. The last part introduces criteria based on which it evaluates whether the American foreign policy towards China is changing. The thesis is focused on the topic of human rights, which is a frequent source of dispute between these two countries. The thesis also comprises an analysis of the dispute between the USA and China regarding weapon sales to Taiwan. It also analyses the possibility of China selling all its American government bonds and the potential consequences for the American economy. The conclusion sums up the topics discussed in the thesis and provides an answer to the set question.
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Foreign exchange risk management and changes of the exchange rate system of central banks
Sixtová, Kateřina ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Málek, Jiří (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on foreign exchange risk management used by households, firms and banks. The thesis deals with how the hedging against foreign exchange risk depends on the exchange rate system in particular countries. The first chapter is an introduction to foreign exchange market and its current trends. The second part consists of management of foreign exchange position by particular participants on the FX market. In the third part of the thesis are described the functions and competence of a central bank involving FX operations. The last part focuses on the exchange rate of czech koruna. The main goal is to give a recommedation to the Czech national bank regarding its future exchange rate system and to analyze of the possible impact of the development of the exchange rate of koruna on participants on the czech FX market. The outcome of the thesis consists of two possible suggestions to CNB, involving the immediate end of the exchange rate commitment or its prolonging until the adoption of the euro.
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Foreign exchange interventions as an "unconventional" monetary policy tool
Lörinčík, Tomáš ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Jedlinský, Jakub (referee)
The thesis analyses the issue of foreign exchange interventions, discovers its historical conditionality and introduces them to the context of other monetary policy instruments. For the purpose of author`s own research, key event is represented by the last financial crisis which determined significant changes in the basic economic fundamentals of foreign exchange interventions on the global level. Synthetizing publicly available information current trends in the development of this phenomenon were identified. Thesis analyses foreign exchange interventions also from the microeconomic perspective. In this sense, the research subject was presented by central banks of two economies (Australia and Czech Republic) which actively used interventions on foreign exchange market in the past. In order to solve given hypotheses scientific studies and statistical data published by international organizations were used, for example IMF or BIS, but also official reports of central banks
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Role of Renminbi in the International Monetary System
Le, Thuy Linh ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
The bachelor thesis focuses on Chinese currency, renminbi, which has been much talked about since the outburst of the financial crisis in 2008, especially in regard with its potential reserve currency status. The main goal of this thesis is to analyze the renminbis internationalization process and its role in the international monetary system. The first part is mainly dedicated to theoretical concepts of foreign exchange reserves, currency internationalization and international reserve currency. In the second half, I firstly analyze the development of global foreign exchange reserves and its currency composition, take a closer look at the process of renminbi internationalization and changes undertaken within the country. Last chapter gives us an insight into different aspects of renminbis current path to reserve currency status. Despite the countrys active approach to internationalization, the current position of renminbi does not reflect the significance of Chinese economy in the world. It is further needed to liberalize capital controls and develop domestic financial system. But there is an effect of exogenous factors, beyond governments control, that could greatly undermine the whole process.
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Monetary regimes and global imbalances: the case of China
Nguyenová, Ngoc Anh ; Hnát, Pavel (advisor) ; Žamberský, Pavel (referee)
The thesis deals with the exchange rate policy of the People's Republic of China. The objective is to evaluate the effect of exchange rate policy on the current account balance and the monetary policy. The theoretical part of the thesis outlines basic concepts of the foreign exchange market and relevant theories. The following section deals with the evolution of exchange rate policies. The final part is devoted to the analysis of influence of renminbi exchange rate on current account deficit and monetary policy. When assessing the impacts of renminbi exchange rate on monetary policy, open market operations and reserve requirements of banks can be considered as a vital tool of monetary policy of China. The central bank employs interest rate adjustments as a secondary instrument of the Chinese monetary policy.
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The role of the United States dollar as world’s reserve currency since the Bretton Woods monetary system to the present
Schödel, Michael ; Šimíček, Petr (advisor) ; Štekláč, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to analyze the role of the United States dollar since The Bretton Woods monetary system to the present. During the Bretton Woods monetary system US dollar gained the dominant position. It was taken from British pound and is maintained till now. Neither crash of this system in the seventies of the 20th century nor establishment of the common European currency -- Euro, did not end the privileged position of US dollar. In my thesis I deal with advantages and disadvantages of this privileged position for USA and for other countries. Further I analyze the position of the US dollar and USA within The International Monetary Fund and I also compare selected indicators of relevant global currencies. Then I focus on the present biggest currency competitor of the US dollar -- the Euro, and the currency with the greatest potential for the future -- the Chinese yuan.
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