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Commodity markets in times of global crises
MULICA, Filip Sebastian
The work explores the world of commodity markets and commodity trading in a manner that is mainly focused on the fluctuation of prices and traded volumes of selected, globally most significant commodities in times before, during and in the aftermaths of global economic, political or social crises. The theoretical part of the work introduces the basic information and principles of commodity markets, such as the institutions, commodities and global crises, which is the basis for the practical part. The practical part consists of data collection, analysis and data processing to find connections between the crises and the fluctuation of values related to mentioned commodity markets trade interpreted verbally with graphical support. The reasons for why the commodity markets are of bearish or bullish character in the particular examples are explained. The impact of the commodity market fluctuation on selected global economies and their main macroeconomical indices is also interpreted.
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Gold as a Stable Asset in Economic Recession: An Econometric Analysis
Petrželka, Václav ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
Due to its reliability, durability and rarity, gold has been seen for centuries as a safe haven investment that should prevent large losses during financial crises. However, the question arises whether this characteristic is still relevant for gold. In our thesis, we distinguish between two main aspects of a safe haven asset, namely the degree of volatility and the ability to predict as accurately as possible the evolution of the volatility of a given asset. The major economic crises of the 20th century show us that the volatility of gold during them was lower than that of other assets. We therefore follow up with a detailed analy- sis comparing the volatility of daily returns for gold, stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies over the period 2006-2021. We find that gold volatility was indeed lowest during the Great Recession after 2007 and after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. We also confirm an asymmetric response to negative returns for stocks and commodities, which is not the case for gold and cryptocurrencies. We test the ability to predict assets by comparing predicted daily volatilities and realized daily volatilities over more than a six-month inter- val in 2014 and 2021. We find no relationship to confirm that gold has higher predictability than other assets. Our findings...
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Investing in Commodities through Futures Contracts
Králík, Patrik ; Bílek, Michael (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
The diploma thesis focuses on the analysis and comparison of selected commodities in order to create an investment recommendation to diversify the hedge fund's equity portfolio. The theoretical part deals with issues related to the investment portfolio, commodities, trading through futures contracts and explains the applied analytical methods. In the practical part, commodities are first selected, which are then analyzed by selected methods and finally compared by a comparative method. The last part of the work contains, based on the results, a proposal to expand the investment portfolio and the process of making investments through commodity futures contracts.
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Power markets and the EU ETS: How volatility propagates across Central Europe?
Jurka, Vojtěch ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
The thesis deals with connectedness in the uncertainty of the carbon and power markets in Central Europe. While the drivers of power price were extensively documented in the literature, we investigate how uncertainty propagates between the German power market and its production factors using a recently developed framework of connectedness measurement. The connections in uncertainty on markets are insightful for the decision of the agents that require a premium for undertaking risk. The empirical results suggest that connectedness in uncertainty significantly varies over the studied period. The interdependence of power with coal decreases while the spillovers between gas and power rise on importance reflecting the changes in generation mix of Germany. For most of the period, the volatility of carbon and power markets is highly correlated. However, the share of volatility transmission spikes several times during the period of 2016-2019. In reaction to the reform of the EU Emission Trading Scheme, the uncertainty about emission allowance prices propagates to the German power market, increasing the uncertainty about power prices on the long horizon.
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Futures Trading of Commodities as a Retail Trader
Burša, Petr ; Hrabec, Vojtěch (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
The goal of this thesis “Futures trading of commodities as a retail trader” is creation of investment suggestion, based on analysis of possibilities, markets and factors influencing the price. In the first part are defined basic terms and information for better orientation on the futures commodity market. In the next part are analysis of the major commodity markets, groups of commodities and detailed analysis of interest commodities – gold and silver. The last third part of the thesis engage in creation of strategy for trading of commodity futures on gold and silver, which is the basic element for the final investment suggestion.
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Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices
Kubaštová, Magdaléna ; Fičura, Milan (advisor) ; Galuška, Jiří (referee)
This master thesis, Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices deals with macroeconomic variables that drive the price of gold. This paper is divided into three chapters: Possible investment forms in gold, Fundamental analysis of commodities, and lastly Analysis of impact of strong economies and their influence on gold prices. In the first chapter, emphasis is put on the Efficient Market Theory that plays an important role in success or failure of investment strategies such as technical and fundamental analysis. The second chapter illustrates the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and how it is used as a tool to predict the movement of gold prices. This chapter also discusses other large drivers effecting gold prices such as financial and geopolitical stability, inflation, interest rates, Central Banking operations, the value of the US dollar, and other influences. The final chapter analyzes the impact of announced fundamental news in the United States, China, and Europe on the price of gold. The empirical part of this paper analysis the impact of announced fundamental news in United States, China and Europe on gold prices. With the use of the linear regression method, we can test whether the macroeconomic variables significantly influence the return on gold investments immediately after their announcement, or over long periods of time. If this new public data was calculated into gold prices directly, investors would not be able to achieve additional returns by using fundamental analysis. The major findings are summed up at the end of the last chapter.
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Strategies for Spread Trading using Futures Contracts
Gottlieb, Oskar ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
The focus of this thesis are futures spreads, more specifically trading strategies based on two approaches - cointegration tested on inter-commodity spreads and seasonality observed amongst calendar spreads. Commodity pairs which we identify to be cointegrated are tested for four mean reversion strategies, three of them being based on fair value approach, the fourth on the relative value approach. Similarly calendar spreads exhibiting seasonality are optimized for naive buy and hold trading strategies. Both approaches are tested on in-sample and out-of-sample data. Amongst seasonal strategies we have not found a pattern yielding sufficiently profitable signals in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods. Inter-commodity spreads on the other returned profitable strategies on cointegrated spreads which were also similar in physical nature. The exception to that rule were spreads known well in the industry, which failed to deliver positive results in the out-of-sample period.
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Growing Role of Switzerland in Commodity Trade
Sláma, Ondřej ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Fišerová, Tereza (referee)
Growing Role of Switzerland in Commodity Trade Ondřej Sláma Abstract This thesis assesses causes and consequences of Switzerland becoming the world's leading commodity hub. In both the replication and the extension of existing esti- mates, I find support for the hypothesis that Switzerland declares unusually higher (re-)export prices for commodities which are also on average under-priced as devel- oping country exports to Switzerland. The transfer pricing manipulation process implies a potential capital loss for commodity exporting countries along with other movement of either illicit or illegal financial flows. The highest annual estimate of $117 billion loss for developing countries trading with Switzerland suggests substan- tial issue in times of development aid turmoil. I attribute such grievous matters to Switzerland's low effort to meet international norms of international trade and trade transparency. The transfer pricing manipulation might also serve as a vehicle for money laundering, terrorist financing, corruption, or tax and tariff evasion and avoidance, as the data imply. JEL Classificiation F14, F23, F39, F62, F63, O24 Keywords illicit financial flows, transfer pricing manipulation, transparency, commodities Author's email slama.ondrej@gmail.com Supervisor's email jansky.peta@gmail.com 1
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Crude oil co-movement with other representatives of energy and non-energy commodity markets
Mustivaya, Julia ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Jánský, Ivo (referee)
Financialization of crude oil and its frequent inclusion into investment portfo- lios raise the demand for proper correlation estimates of this commodity and other financial assets. This thesis particularly examines the co-movement of crude oil price with prices of four other representatives of commodity market (gasoline, natural gas, gold and Industrials Index). It contributes to the exist- ing literature by the results obtained from application of wavelet coherence, which allows uncovering dynamics of interconnection between commodity prices in time as well as over different frequencies. Analysis brings many in- teresting findings and practical implications. Among others, it specifies the investment horizons that should be considered to maximize diversification properties of studied commodities. 1
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