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Methodology for rapid, comprehensive, independent decision-making on the need, effectiveness and interaction of adaptation measures in river basins under climate change
Fischer, Milan ; Zeman, Evžen ; Vizina, A. ; Hanel, M. ; Bernsteinová, Jana ; Tachecí, P. ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Pavlík, P. ; Máca, P. ; Ghisi, Tomáš ; Rapantová, N. ; Bláhová, Monika ; Janál, P. ; Trnka, Miroslav
The aim of the methodology is to present methods for quantifying the impacts of projected climate change on the water balance when applying adaptation measures in the Czech Republic for the next few decades. Adaptation measures should contribute to the sustainability of the water balance in all major user segments of water use and management in the basin. The main principle is the use of hydrological models to transform climate change scenarios into time series of hydrological conditions and to quantify the overall water balance of the basin using different types of adaptation measures and their implementation over time. Special emphasis is placed on the evaluation of combinations of adaptation measures that cannot be analysed by simplified methods. The methodology is designed to search for the optimal combination of adaptation measures in the assessed catchment. The proposed approach eliminates the shortcomings of effectiveness assessment from the perspective of the exclusive user of the water resource, as the evaluation of the effectiveness of adaptation measures is carried out in the form of a multi-criteria analysis of the evaluation of the outputs of the simulation model for predicting the water balance in the whole basin. This methodology can be used to assess different adaptation measures in all basic segments of water users: agriculture, forestry, energy, water management and others.
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Methodology for determining the main disturbances in the water management balance and optimizing adaptation measures in the conditions climate change
Fischer, Milan ; Zeman, Evžen ; Vizina, A. ; Hanel, M. ; Bernsteinová, Jana ; Tachecí, P. ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Pavlík, P. ; Máca, P. ; Ghisi, Tomáš ; Rapantová, N. ; Bláhová, Monika ; Janál, P. ; Trnka, Miroslav
Ongoing climate change is causing a global increase in air temperature. While this is leading to an acceleration of the global hydrological cycle, and therefore a global increase in precipitation, the spatiotemporal variability in precipitation is much more complicated. While temperature in the Czech Republic shows a consistently increasing trend similar to that of surrounding countries and the planet as a whole, precipitation can be simplified that long-term averages of annual totals remain and are likely to remain very similar in the coming decades. Rising air temperatures inherently bring increased evaporative demand of the atmosphere and, for the same precipitation, a lower ratio of precipitation to evaporation, i.e. the climatic water balance shows a negative trend.
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Use of the Agrorisk.cz portal – an early warning system against the negative effects of weather on agriculture
Žalud, Zdeněk ; Svobodová, Eva ; Klem, Karel ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan
The early warning system against negative weather effects offers a daily updated description of abiotic and selected biotic risks threatening field production at the cadastral level. It includes their 9-day forecast. The methodology is primarily intended for agronomists,plant doctors and agricultural managers, as well as scientists, agricultural consultants and representatives of public administration.
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Modelling the onset of phenological phases of spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.)
Dížková, Petra ; Bartošová, Lenka ; Hájková, L. ; Balek, Jan ; Bláhová, Monika ; Bohuslav, Jakub ; Pohanková, Eva ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The onset of phenological phases of plant species is influenced mainly by air temperature. Each phenophase has its temperature limits (base temperature and temperature sum), which must be reached for each phase to occur. With knowledge of these limits, it is possible to predict the onset of phenological phases in localities where only meteorological data are available and also in future climate conditions. In this work, we used phenological ground-based data from 33 stations within the Czech Republic to calculate the most relevant meteorological predictors. PhenoClim software was used for phenological and meteorological data calibration and modelling. The smallest error that allows us to predict the term of the phenophases was found for the heading of spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), as the best predictor was the maximum daily temperature and the statistical error was 3.6 days.
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Risk assessment and prediction of natural fires in the immediate vicinity\nsurface sources of drinking water.
Trnka, Miroslav ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Čermák, P. ; Balek, Jan ; Novotný, Jan ; Homolová, Lucie ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Benáček, Patrik ; Fischer, Milan ; Sedlák, Pavel ; Janouš, Dalibor ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Marek, Michal V. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F. ; Knozová, G. ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Mašková, R. ; Cienciala, E. ; Vizina, A. ; Nesládková, M. ; Melišová, E. ; Hanel, M.
The methodology formulates a procedure for assessing the risks of the occurrence and spread of natural fires in the immediate vicinity of surface sources of drinking water. The methodology\nproposes methods for estimating the consequences of natural fires on surface water quality, forecasting the change in the risk of fires due to climate change and the procedure for determining the risk of secondary pollution of reservoirs due to changes in run off after a natural fire. On this basis, the methodology proposes and diversifies preventíve and operational measures.The measures were designed in connection to modeling results for the Hadce pilot síte near the Švihov reservoir and the experience with the adverse effects of extensive deforestation on the water quality in the Vranov and Vír reservoirs.
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System of natural fire risk indicators (verification of various risk assessment procedures occurrence of natural fires) including instructions for the use of the integrated forecast system
Trnka, Miroslav ; Čermák, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Zemek, František ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Jurečka, František ; Janouš, Dalibor ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Marek, Michal V. ; Cienciala, Emil ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Tumajer, J. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F.
The presented methodology represents an improvement of the currently used system of wildfire monitoring and forecast. Based on extensive testing, it defines two fire weather indices. The method shows how the combination of both indices can lead to robust fire risk estimates. Both indices were uset to generate a forecast of fire weather, but also to quantify th erelationship between the frequency of favorable conditions for the occurrence of natural fires and their observed numbers, in several time steps (from 1 day to the entire season) The methodology has been implemented within the www. firerisk.cz portal, where it serves as a tool for operational fire risk forecasting. The text of the methodology therefore contains instructions for using the menthodology therefore contains instructions for using the firerick.cz portal. Great attention is paid in the methodology to the aspect of climate change and estimating the impact of this phenomenon on the frequency of wildfires in the Czech republic.
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Recommended adaptation and mitigation measures in risk areas of natural occurrence fires in the light of the changing climate
Trnka, Miroslav ; Čermák, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Zemek, František ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Bláhová, Monika ; Cienciala, Emil ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Tumajer, J. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F.
The methodology formulates graded adaptation and mitigation measures to mitigate fire risk and spread fire in the countryside (forest and agricultural land). To this end, a variant assessment procedure is presented fire risk according to the user's data capabilities. The algorithmization of fire risk in forests is based on forest typology to assess habitats, and adds forest vegetation characteristics. On agricultural Soil agronomic factors include crop type, cover cover, habitat and water characteristics regime. For both territorial categories, the expected impacts of climate change on fire risk are given habitat in the medium term (by 2050). Methodology in conclusion on a case study demonstrates the possibilities of using the model tool FlamMap for the analysis of fire characteristics.
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COMPARISON OF ACTUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM ALEXI AND SOILCLIM MODELS
Jurečka, František ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Lukas, Vojtěch ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Anderson, M. ; Hain, C. ; Balek, Jan ; Bláhová, Monika ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) determined by the Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model and water balance model SoilClim was compared for selected districts of the Czech Republic. The ALEXI model uses the land surface temperature (LST) from remote sensing and provides information on ETa and subsequently the surface moisture status. The SoilClim is a dynamic model of watcr content in soil and represents a model based on water balance approach. The current version of the model is able to estimate the value of ETa, as well as soil moisture content in two layers of the soil profile. Investigated period of ETa comparison were years 2014 and 2015. Especially the year 2015 had a special relevance due to the significant summer drought that occurred in CR. Model performance was compared for the period when changes in vegetation are most significant from April to August. Week sums of ETa from both models were compared at the district level for Vysodina, JihomorayskY and Olomouck, regions. The ETa values were generally higher from ALEXI as compared to SoilClim. ALEXI values were in some cases even two or three time higher. Moreover, the seasonal dynamics showed sometimes opposite trends. As this is a pilot testing of ALEXI based ETa in the conditions of Central Europe and show large differences as compared to well established methods, more detailed testing is required prior drawing any general conclusions.
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Development and optimalization of sectioning technique for the study of migration and differentiation potential of testicular stem cells in X. tropicalis tadpoles
Bláhová, Monika ; Krylov, Vladimír (advisor) ; Pšenička, Martin (referee)
Thanks to their ability to differentiate into variable cell types and migrate to the site of an injury mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) are broadly used in regenerative medicine. Their relative easy availability together with the property to control the immune system determines them as a cure of autoimmune diseases or a recovery of wounded tissues. Similar features posses Sertoli cells which take place in the seminiferous tubule of testis. Cell culture of testicular stem cells from juvenile male testes of X. tropicalis (XtTSC) was established in supervisor's laboratory. This cell culture showing both MSC's and SeC's properties was transformed to carry red fluorescent protein RFP. The aim of this diploma thesis was to investigate an behavior of transformed XtTSC in living organism, therefore cells were transplanted into the X. tropicalis tadpoles in stage 41. Subsequently, their migration potential was explored. To study of XtTSC's differentiation potential it was necessary to introduce a reliable sectioning techniques for the subsequent immunohistochemical analysis. Based on our experiments, we found that the XtTSC's cell culture contains precursors of SeC and peri-tubular myoid cells, however in vivo these cells turned into the dedifferentiated MSC-like state allowing a strong migration through the...
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Regional yield forecasting for improved decision making in the plant production
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Meitner, Jan ; Možný, Martin ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Bartošová, Lenka ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Bláhová, Monika ; Lukas, Vojtěch ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The methodology describes how to predict yields of key crops, and at the same time addresses reliability of the predictions and how these can be used. The ability to predict yield levels more than 2 months prior the harvest on the level of regions (NUTS3¨) and districts (LAU1) brings also new opportunities to mitigate impacts of adverse conditions. The methodology shows that the yield forecasts and yield anomalies in particular are consistent and usable in practices. In this methodology, the results of 2018 yield forecasts are presented as an example. The yield forecasting system for the Czech Republic is fully functional and is and will be available through www.vynosy-plodin.cz.
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