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The use of qualitative modeling in solving problems associated with external credit rating
Krejčíř, Jaroslav ; Kulhánek, Lumír (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (referee) ; Myšková, Renáta (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
The doctoral dissertation studies applications of the methods of qualitative modelling to solve problems associated with external credit ratings. Qualitative modelling is a tool which can solve tasks under shortage of relevant information items. Correlation analysis is used if relevant data sets are available and complement the qualitative analysis. External credit rating assessments are closely related to possibilities of insolvency of business entities and the subsequent bankruptcies. Mutual interlinks of bankruptcy probabilities and qualitative models are presented in details. Two specific models are given. Due to the adopted legislative measures were also tested match of the ratings from a variety of external credit rating agencies using cluster and correlation analysis. The above mentioned results are used to develop a qualitative model of external credit ratings, which is the main outcome of this dissertation. The results of model scenarios of assessment of the influence of regulation external credit rating on the business entity, investors, as well as regulatory authorities are presented in details.
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Models of Analysis and Forecasting of the insolvency of Czech companies
Kuchina, Elena ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Řičař, Michal (referee)
Different scenarios of the financial situation can take place before the company's bankruptcy. There may be long-term trends in the deteriorating financial situation that indicate the impending corporate bankruptcy, or the bankruptcy may occur unexpectedly, even though the company was ranked among prosperous business units. If the economic situation of the company followed the second scenario, when insolvency was quite predictable, static model, i.e. the model which does not take into account the dynamics of changes in the financial indicators, is a good option to capture the probability of bankruptcy. However, the situation becomes different when the financial indicators fail to show a positive trend throughout some years before the insolvency. In this case, the predictive accuracy of the static model could be increased by a dynamic model by taking into account the fact that the development of the financial indicators in the past periods may affect the company's financial health for the period under consideration.
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Application of Models of the General Evaluation to Companies in Bankruptcy
Zoubek, Michal ; Klečka, Jiří (advisor) ; Krause, Josef (referee)
In this thesis will be discussed about selected models of general evaluation of company which will be applied to companies in decline. After a short introduction of the thesis will follow the theoretical and methodological apparatus in which selected bankruptcy and solvent models will be described, then there will be described the method of their calculation and interpretation of the results generated. In the practical part models will be applied to selected companies which are in decline and results will be compared. At the conclusion will be evaluated the ability of these models to predict the deteriorating financial situation of company or its bankruptcy and will be discussed their advantages and weaknesses and their potential explanatory ability for firms in the Czech market conditions.
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Financial crisis in Argentina, solutions to the crisis and recovery of the country
Hrabětová, Michaela ; Klosová, Anna (advisor) ; Gullová, Soňa (referee)
The topic of this bachelor thesis is Argentina and its recovery after the financial crisis in 2001/2002. First part of the thesis describes economical history of Argentina till the crisis hit the country. The description is based on basic macroeconomic data. Second part of essay focuses on principal factors that caused the crisis and the character of the crisis in general. It is followed by analysis of economic recovery of the country, again based on macroeconomic data as described in the first part. The final chapter covers the current position of Argentinian economy in the world as well as in regional associations.
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The Economics of Bankruptcy - International Perspective
Rakićová, Anna ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
Presented work deals with the issues of bankruptcies in pre-selected countries: Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Serbia and Croatia, both from an economic and legal viewpoint. First four chapters are devoted to more detailed analysis of insolvency (bankruptcy) laws of each country with regard to their development and current practice. At the end of each chapter is described a current "bankruptcy situation" on the markets of individual economies. The sixth chapter deals with bankruptcies in Europe (Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe). Part of this chapter is also devoted to the development of selected economies in terms of their GDP. The seventh chapter highlights the economic aspects of bankruptcy and the eighth chapter analyzes the data obtained. The work focuses only on corporate bankruptcies and is completed with appropriate graphs and tables both in the text and in the appendices.
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Greek debt crysis
Ježek, Dominik ; Maaytová, Alena (advisor) ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (referee)
In its work, I covered the trustworthiness of Greece as a debtor from the historical and today's context, the economic impacts of a debt crisis for the Greek state and for the monetary union and an analysis of its causes and probable outcomes. On the basis of technical publications and the world news, I summarized the theories of the expected development of Greek economics and the consequences for other member states of European Monetary Union.
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State aid to financial sector during financial crisis of 2008-2009 in USA and EU
Adamec, Michal ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Jazic, Viktorija (referee)
Diploma thesis analyses state aid to financial sector provided by central banks and governments in USA and EU during recent financial crisis. In the deepest stage of the crisis central banks provided great amounts of liquidity in order to keep financial institutions afloat. Then, governments provided guarantees for debts which hepled financial institutions to finance themselves at lower costs. Capital injections and asset guarantees were also provided. In aggregate, the government measures had impact on reducing risk premiums but did not support stock prices. BoE and Fed implemented quantitative easing. Its only impact was decrease of yields of government bonds. All measures failed to restore robust growth of credit to real economy. There is a strong effect of the crisis and provided mesures on the increase of government debts.
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Greek debt crisis and its impact on EU
Štefková, Veronika ; Hnát, Pavel (advisor) ; Vrňáková, Irena (referee)
Greece joined EU in 1981 and became a member of the European Monetary Union in 2001. With its budget deficit and government debt, which do not comply with the Maastricht criteria for a long time, Greece belongs to the weakest members of EU. The impact of the global financial crisis, combined with structural weaknesses of the national economy, which significantly reduces its competitiveness, occurred in Greece in 2009. At this time pressure on international financial markets, the Greek government bonds, and the common European currency, was intensified. Greek bond rating has gradually dropped to the junk level and the interest rate of bonds has exceeded the acceptable limit. Concerns about possible default followed.
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Bankruptcy prediction models
Šustr, Jan ; Synek, Miloslav (advisor) ; Špička, Jindřich (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to describe some of the well-known, as well as several less-known, prediction models, and to verify their ability of predicting bankruptcy in the conditions of the Czech Republic. The theoretical part of the thesis contains descriptions of these models, equations to calculate them and ways of results evaluation. Models by both Czech and foreign authors are presented. The practical part of the thesis verifies the ability of these models to predict bankruptcy on a sample of eight randomly selected companies which suffered serious financial problems. At the end of this thesis, the results from evaluating of these companies by prediction models are summarized.
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Theory of Sovereign Bankruptcy
Štekláč, Jiří ; Ježek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Munzi, Tomáš (referee)
The bankruptcy is examined insufficiently in spite of the fact of its significancy. The aim of this diploma thesis was to define the bankruptcy, examine the economic possibilities of its settlement, analyse causes and consequences of the bankruptcy and find prevention and treatment. The thesis distinguishes bankruptcy of private subject and sovereign bankruptcy. The paradox of the monetary system is shown as primary cause of both private and state bankruptcy. Debt fiat money is created throughout credit expansion which generates malinvestments (Austrian economic theory of monetary cycles) and causes bankruptcies. On the other hand, financial system is based on necessity of permanent harmful issuance of credit fiat money which is issued by commercial banks (not by central banks). Furthermore, diploma thesis uses the criteria of Moody's rating agency as appropriate approximation of secondary causes of sovereign bankruptcy. The next part evaluates the impacts of bankruptcy (sovereign and private) on global financial markets and monetary unions. Credit freeze, run on banks, panics and collapse of the financial system are shown as the most substancial consequences of bankruptcy. In globalized world, the state bankruptcy is not isolated event. Financial institutions in other countries can be possible holders of devaluated (government) bonds. This study evaluates the impact of the bankruptcy on the monetary union. Currency devaluation is a common instrument of facing the consequences of bankruptcy which is not applicable in case of membership in monetary union. So, the bankruptcy of one member affects entire monetary union. In the next step, the study aims to examine topic of institucional solution of sovereign bankruptcy. Thesis uses private bankruptcy law (specifically Czech Insolvency Act) to formulate the possibilities of state bankruptcy settlement. Bankruptcy (In Czech: Konkurz), Reorganization (In Czech: Reorganizace), Debt clearance (In Czech: Oddlužení), Restructuring (In Czech: Restrukturalizace) and Fusion-acquisition (In Czech: Akvizice a fúze) are analyzed as options of sovereign bankruptcy solution. The instances of some threaten European countries are analyzed in the last part of thesis.
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