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The current decision-making process of SNB as a possible way for CNB
Hořáková, Gabriela ; Vostrovská, Zdenka (advisor) ; Pavelek, Petr (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to compare the reasons that encouraged SNB to abandon its peg against the euro in January 2015 with potential decision-making process of ČNB in conjunction with the current situation of currency interventions in the Czech Republic. The subject is chosen considering its high topicality and macroeconomic importance. The basis of the empirical research is the theoretical grounding of central banking and the issue of price level changes with focus on monetary policy and deflation. Based on the observed macroeconomic indicators, the text continues by the analysis of the Czech economy 1,5 years after currency interventions and the Swiss currency interventions since 2009. With reference to the reasons of their abandonment by SNB the thesis is completed with the application on the current situation in the Czech Republic. According to the paper's findings, it was concluded that the situation in the Czech Republic does not indicate similar decision-making process of ČNB.
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The impact of Czech national bank foreign exchange interventions on czech economy during 2014
Hladík, Tomáš ; Vostrovská, Zdenka (advisor) ; Řežábek, Pavel (referee)
This thesis analyzes development of selected macroeconomic indicators in the last two years. Czech National Bank selected foreign exchange interventions as the most suitable instrument for further easing of monetary policy and the main reason for their initiation was the risk of deflation at the beginning of 2014. This research compares condition of Czech economy in the period before interventions and then one year after. By combining data analysis with theoretical findings I reached the conclusion that interventions could not affect price developments in such a short period of time. On the other hand, other indicators showed significant improvement, which supported economic growth during 2014.
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Inflation targeting in case of imminent deflationary pressures - the example of CNB
Plachý, Matěj ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Dvořák, Michal (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on the use of inflation targeting as monetary policy regime in a situation of imminent deflation. The thesis is divided into three main parts. The first part introduces the basic mechanism of inflation targeting with its basic elements and describes its possible failure. The second part focuses mainly on the analysis of the economic factors which contributed to achieving the zero lower bound for the repo rate of CNB. The third part presents an alternative (unconventional) monetary policy instruments in case of achieving zero lower bound, in particular the use of the exchange rate. The end of the last part of this thesis analyzes the development of key macroeconomic indicators in the Czech Republic.
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Is economic growth compatible with deflation? A case study of the United States in the 19th century
Němec, Petr ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
In this thesis I examine the compatibility of deflation and economic growth. I summarize the negative effects of deflation and the conditions in which it works contrary to growth. Then I introduce arguments in favor of deflation as a phenomenon leading to the effective allocation of resources. I use the ordinary least squares method in order to estimate the relationship between deflation and economic growth. Data derived from the USA during the time period from 1800 to 1913 confirm the hypothesis that deflation is compatible with economic growth. Deflation is unambiguously compatible with economic growth in cases of growing productivity of factors of production.
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Politika cílování inflace v České republice při úrokových mírách ve stavu technické nuly
Venský, Jakub
Venský, J. Policy of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic in the case of interest rates are in the state of technical zero. Brno: Mendel University, 2015. This thesis deals with policy of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic in the case of interest rates are in the state of technical zero. In the thesis, there are described the monetary policies, which can be used to central bank reach its primary goal in state of technical zero of interest rates. There is conducted qualitative analysis in the form of comparison of the monetary policies in the chosen countries. For the purpose of selecting a suitable instrument was performed a regression model verification of uncovered interest parity. Then, there was suggested appropriate provision to can be achieved the price stability.
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Central bank monitoring - March 2012
Česká národní banka
Latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. Spotlight: „Openness and monetary policy stratégy of Fed“. Selected speech: „The bank of Japan’s efforts towards overcoming deflation“ by Masaaki Shirakawa (Bank of Japan Governor).
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Vliv devizových intervencí ČNB na českou ekonomiku
Beránek, Stanislav
Beránek, S. Effect of foreign exchange interventions on the Czech economy. Bachelor thesis. Brno: Mendel University in Brno, 2014. The thesis deals with foreign-exchange interventions of Czech National Bank (CNB) in 2013. The thesis describes principles of interaction with the tools of the economy, particularly the exchange rate mechanism, which is related to the foreign exchange interventions. The thesis also detected the state of the economy before the intervention of the CNB. Actual state of selected macroeconomic indicators is compared with the situation that would occur in the absence of foreign exchange interventions. On the basis of these analyzes is to formulate conclusions.
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The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic
Franta, Michal ; Holub, Tomáš ; Král, Petr ; Kubicová, Ivana ; Šmídková, Kateřina ; Vašíček, Bořek
This study examines the use of the exchange rate by the Czech National Bank as a monetary policy instrument at the zero lower bound on interest rates. It provides a review of the economic literature on unconventional monetary policy instruments and particularly on the possibility of using the exchange rate. It explains the CNB’s reasons for further easing monetary policy and for choosing the exchange rate instrument and its specific level, and discusses its expected benefits in the case of the Czech Republic. It also explains why the CNB ultimately decided to transparently declare a one-sided exchange rate commitment with potentially unlimited foreign exchange interventions. The article concludes by assessing the impacts of the exchange rate weakening on the Czech economy to date, as compared to what the CNB had expected, and by describing the public debate of the CNB’s action and related changes in its communication strategy.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Price-Level Targeting – A Real Alternative to Inflation Targeting?
Böhm, Jiří ; Filáček, Jan ; Kubicová, Ivana ; Zamazalová, Romana
This paper reviews price-level targeting in the light of current theoretical knowledge and past practical experience. We discuss progress in the economic debate on this issue, starting with the traditional arguments discussed in the early 1990s, moving to Svensson’s seminal paper in the late 1990s and ending with the most recent literature from the beginning of the new millennium. We devote special attention to the issues of the zero interest rate bound, time consistency and communication. Practical experience from Sweden in the 1930s and Czechoslovakia in the first few years after WWI is used to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of price-level targeting. Finally, the similarities of price-level and inflation developments with hypothetical outcomes under price-level targeting are investigated in selected inflation-targeting countries.
Fulltext: PDF
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Causes and impact of deflation in Japan
Burdová, Ivana ; Stuchlíková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Machytka, Daniel (referee)
Bankruptcy of speculative asset bubble at the very beginning of the nineties created deflationary environment in Japan. Deflation fully revealed itself in second half of the nineties along with structural problems. At the same time appeared a problem of credit crunch and liquidity trap appeared. Although Japanese central bank and government tried to fight deflation, they didn't succeed in definitely overcoming the deflation. Nevertheless the zero interest rate policy and the quantitative easing policy had positive impact. They prevented Japan from slipping in deflationary spiral, on which edge Japan stood several times. Presently there is a speculation about positive prospect for overcoming deflation once and for all. With new aggressive policy of central bank and current prime minister, the atmosphere on whole Japanese market has already improved. However, the uncertainty persist because of planned increase of consumption tax, which could bring problems in an extreme case.
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