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Efficiency of the prediction markets: case of Intrade
Brandejs, David ; Dózsa, Martin (advisor) ; Benčík, Daniel (referee)
1 Abstract Bachelor thesis confirms weak market efficiency hypothesis for political events, which took place on Intrade prediction market and finished between 1. October and 31. December 2012. Three unit root tests, ADF GLS, KPSS and Lo-Mackinlay test proved on 5% confidence level, that 140 of 191 tested political events is weakly market efficient, which means high relative market efficiency (73,3%). Testing out-of-political markets shows significantly lower market efficiency. Logit model rejected on 5% confidence level the assumption, that total volume of traded shares is significant parameter for the estimation of market efficiency. Keywords Prediction market, Intrade, efficiency market hy- pothesis, relative market efficiency, ADF test, KPSS test Author's e-mail David.Brandejs@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail Martin@Dozsa.cz
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Electricity market: Analysis and prediction of volatility
Kunc, Vladimír ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Hájek, Jan (referee)
Electricity market: Analysis and prediction of volatility Abstract Vladimír Kunc July 30, 2015 The last two decades can be characterized by restructuring of energy industry and the creation of new, competitive energy markets, where accurate forecasts of elec- tricity prices and price volatility are valuable both to consumers and producers. The aim of this work is to analyse several models for prediction of the price volatility of electricity on the Czech Electricity Day-ahead market on price data provided by OTE, a.s. for years 2009-2014. This work compares 144 different models' configura- tions for three distinct classes of models - autoregressive models, GARCH models, and artificial neural network models. This work provides comparison based on five different criteria, each describing the model in different way. Keywords: price prediction, volatility prediction, GARCH, neural networks, LSTM 1
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The Impact of Renewable Electricity on the Czech Electricity Balancing Market
Kašparová, Amálie ; Hanus, Luboš (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
As global investments in renewable energy technologies continue to grow, their effects on electricity markets are a challenge for regulators and policymakers. The thesis examines the effects of forecast errors of Czech and German renew- able energy sources on the size and volatility of the system imbalance of the Czech balancing market. Using a quantile regression and ARFIMA-GARCH models on hourly data, I found that higher solar and wind forecast errors in- crease the system imbalance in absolute terms and affect the volatility. The results show that the Czech solar and wind forecast errors have significantly higher effect than the German forecast errors on the size and volatility of the system imbalance. The strongest effect on the size and volatility of the system imbalance have the Czech solar forecast errors. Therefore, the Czech govern- ment should insist on improving the accuracy and availability of renewable energy forecasts from the transmission system operator ČEPS. Klasifikace JEL C14, C50, Q42 Klíčová slova renewable sources, forecast errors, balanc- ing market, system imbalance
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Analysis of the US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic
Tůma, Adam ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Fanta, Nicolas (referee)
This work investigates the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the S&P 500 stock index and its eleven sectors. Employing the ARMA and the T-GARCH model on a time series of daily returns from 2018 until March 2021, we examine the impact on volatility, returns, and day-of-the-week effect during the stock market crash caused by the pandemic and the period after. Our main findings imply that in the case of returns, the Monday effect was more negative than the Friday effect during the market crash and vice versa in the rising market after the crash. Concluding that the calendar time hypothesis holds for the observed periods. In terms of volatility, it drastically increased across the US stock market during and even after the crash. The increase was especially noticeable for the IT and Energy sectors. We also found the U-shaped daily volume pattern changed significantly with proportionately less volume of trades happening in the first half-hour of trading and more throughout the whole day.
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Power markets and the EU ETS: How volatility propagates across Central Europe?
Jurka, Vojtěch ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
The thesis deals with connectedness in the uncertainty of the carbon and power markets in Central Europe. While the drivers of power price were extensively documented in the literature, we investigate how uncertainty propagates between the German power market and its production factors using a recently developed framework of connectedness measurement. The connections in uncertainty on markets are insightful for the decision of the agents that require a premium for undertaking risk. The empirical results suggest that connectedness in uncertainty significantly varies over the studied period. The interdependence of power with coal decreases while the spillovers between gas and power rise on importance reflecting the changes in generation mix of Germany. For most of the period, the volatility of carbon and power markets is highly correlated. However, the share of volatility transmission spikes several times during the period of 2016-2019. In reaction to the reform of the EU Emission Trading Scheme, the uncertainty about emission allowance prices propagates to the German power market, increasing the uncertainty about power prices on the long horizon.
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Vliv ceny ropy na hodnotu akcií společností těžících ropu
Pavlata, Josef
This diploma thesis is focused on evaluation of impact of oil price changes on share values of oil companies. The main goal was to clarify whether stocks of oil companies with state share react to oil price movements differently than stocks of oil companies without state share. This hypothesis was verified by analysis of time series of oil price (WTI) and share values of seven oil companies (BP, ExxonMobil, Lukoil, PetroChina, Statoil, Petrobras). One-day data from 2002-2016 period were used. Investment recommendation based on econometric methods (correlation analysis, regression analysis, VAR model, Granger causality) and financial methods (volatility, profitability) was drawn up in this study. The hypothesis of state influence was confirmed.
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Zhodnocení investičních produktů dle způsobu jejich řízení
Maštalíř, Jiří
Bachelor thesis is focused on investments to mutual funds and exchange traded funds. Includes the characteristic of the most important concepts of collective investments from the legal forms through the identification of advantages and disadvantages to the presentation of the investments products themselves and their strategies. The primary objective of the thesis is to compare the various investment products according to the way of their management. Then are made recommendations on which investment style and strategy are best suited to retail investor.
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Daň z finančných transakcií ako možný nový zdroj rozpočtu EÚ
Korduliaková, Lucia
Korduliaková, L., Financial transaction tax as a new own resource of European Union budget. Diploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2017. The aim of the diploma thesis is to estimate the value of financial transactions tax revenues as a new possible own resource of EU budget. First part of the diploma thesis focuses on the theoretical aspects of financial transaction tax and defines the political and economic aspects leading to the creation of a concept of financial transaction tax. An important part is the comprehensive theoretical interpretation of this tax. The conclusion of the theoretical part is devoted to the international experience with taxation and evaluation of the impact of taxation. In practical part, the methodology of estimating potential revenues for the 11 Member States of the European Union is based on modeling. For the purpose of analyzing the suitability of the financial transaction tax as a potential candidate for the own resource, a multi criteria analysis is carried out.
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Zhodnocení výkonnosti akciových indexů rozvinutých trhů s největší tržní kapitalizací v období let 2004-2017
Frýbort, Lukáš
This thesis provides an evaluation of performance of the main stock indices of USA, Japan, Hong Kong and France, which represent the world's largest developed stock markets. The analysis is focused on the period 2004–2017. The theoretical part gives a brief overview of the historical development of selected stock markets, studies the purpose of ETF funds and researches scientific studies related to the main topic. The empirical part of the thesis provides an analysis of S&P 500, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng and CAC 40 in terms of their return, volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratio in the selected periods and compares the best ETF funds that track selected stock indices. The purpose of the thesis is to provide and investment recommendation for retail investors.
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Volatility and Skewness Spillover Effects: Multiresolution Analysis
Frýd, Lukáš ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Baruník, Jozef (referee)
The thesis investigates volatility and skewness spillover effects among seven world stock indices and WTI oil under the assumption of the presence of heterogeneous investors. The data sample covers the period from January 1990 to July 2016. The questions addressed in the thesis are twofold: firstly, the dependency of the spillover effect for both the moments-volatility and skewness-on different investments horizons is tested. Further, it is mea- sured whether the inclusion of skewness into has an impact on the volatility spillovers. The decomposition to the different investment horizons is per- formed by the wavelet transformation. Conditional volatility and skewness were estimated by GAS model, which is capable to dynamize static parame- ters from Skewed t distribution. Empirical results suggest significant spillover effects from both volatil- ity and skewness. Another important result is that skewness has a non- significant impact on the volatility spillover effects. Further, it has been found that spillover effects for both the moments are time-scale dependent: the higher investment horizons are associated with higher spillover effects. Additionally, our results support the evidence of the significant impact of the financial crisis in 2008 on the structure of markets. From 2008, there are stronger volatility...
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