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Deflation and its Link to Recession: Historical Evidence
Kudláčková, Daniela ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Pfeifer, Lukáš (referee)
Deflation, which has recently represented significant source of concern, is by many economists perceived to be an unfavorable phenomenon in the economy. The aim of this paper is to identify the possible link between deflation and economic downturn based on the comprehensive view. The emphasis is put on the analysis of historical episodes of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on causes and impacts of deflation during the periods. The paper does not neglect the comparison of theoretical approaches. The results of the analysis, supported by empirical studies, imply that the relationship between deflation and recession is complex. Although the paper does not confirm the existence of a general link between deflation and recession, it reveals that recession often leads to deflation (especially in a low inflation environment), but deflation does not usually result in recession. In many cases deflation remains to be a symptom of economic problems, not their cause.
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Impacts of global financial crisis on the economies of USA, EU and Japan
Slosarčíková, Jana ; Stuchlíková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Antal, Jarolím (referee)
United States, European Union and Japan are the most important centers of the world economy. Each of them took a different path of economic development, each has different strengths and weaknesses and faces a number of specific problems. These problems are multiplied especially in times of an economic crisis and subsequent recession. This work, divided into four chapters, aims to theoretically and practically analyze the main causes and stages of the financial crisis, with emphasis on its development in three major economies. The first chapter, which deals with the theory of financial crises, is followed by the second one, where theoretical knowledge is applied to the development and course of the global financial crisis and provides an overview of specific short-term measures that the economies had to take in order to fight it. The third chapter analyzes the impact of the crisis on the basic macroeconomic indicators of the analyzed centers and the fourth one summarizes lessons that the economist and state representatives should learn from this experience.
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The influence of economic policy on the causes, course and consequences of cyclical economy in the CR in 1989-2009
Strejčková, Martina ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Mládek, Josef (referee)
Market economies are not developing smoothly, they succumb to permanent fluctuations of economic activity. Effort of macro-policies is to mitigate or eliminate these fluctuations and support long-term economic growth. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to analyse the influence of economic policy on causes, course and impact of cyclical development in the Czech Republic in the years 1989-2009. The first section will outline the theoretical background of the economic cycle. I will explain the essence, causes, methodological basis of the business cycle and describe a set of indicators that will help me to analyse fluctuations of economical activity in the practical part. In theoretical part I will also focus on economic policy, especially on the macroeconomic area, but the microeconomical area will be also mentioned. In practical part I will study economic development of the Czech Republic in last twenty years, using the indicators described in the theoretical part. I will evaluate the way of setting the economic policy (suitability of policy mix) in certain economic situations and answer the main question of this thesis: what was the influence of economic policy on economic development of the Czech Republic? Last chapter will be devoted to the business cycle forecasts. I will compare methodical approaches used by forecasting centres such as Ministry of Finance, Czech National Bank and OECD. I will analyse how the previous forecasts of these institutions varied from reality and finally perform a forecast of economic development in the Czech Republic.
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Predictors of current economic issues
Mlýnek, Jonáš ; Sirůček, Pavel (advisor) ; Nečadová, Marta (referee)
In 2007, the U.S. economy plunged into the deepest recession since 1930's. Later on problems poured into the rest of the world, which just as the U.S. lived in illusion that any slowdown is impossible. Despite widespread optimism, a few harbingers drew attention to unhealthy fundamentals. This thesis deals with the phenomenon of economic crises forecasting, focusing on the aforementioned recession. It aims at analyzing of the most discussed predictions and introducing their authors who were not only highly respected figures, but also less well-known economists. Nouriel Roubini, who became a symbol of economic forecasting, is discussed in closer detail. The analysis of his work focuses on the development, consistency and verification of his views. It also draws general conclusions on Roubini's predicting.
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Family finance in times of economic crisis
Horáková, Lucie ; Schönfeld, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Smrčka, Luboš (referee)
The global economic crisis, which we associate with the beginning of the U.S. housing bubble, greatly influenced the behavior of most economical subjects, including the family-household, which is the object of interest of the author. This paper seeks through comparison of macroeconomic indicators from the years before and after the crisis, to find, describe and explain these changes. Another goal is to prove the truth or falsity of selected economic theories dealing with economic behavior. Most relevant sources of statistics are made up of state institutions, notably the Czech National Bank and the Czech Statistical Office. Characteristic feature of this work is that it does not only consider economic aspects of the problem, but trying to describe the differences in behavior from a psychological perspective.
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The Application of Technical Analysis to the Czech Capital Market in the Period of Economic Recession
Špringer, Milan ; Pígl, Jan (advisor)
These lines deal with both theoretical and analytical view of real usability of individual methods and techniques in the Czech capital market in the period of economic crisis (2008-2009). The document introduces the basic technical analysis methodology (the technique based on graphics outputs of specific data files and the technique based on the mathematical indicators) in the theoretical chapters. An introduction and subsequent description of the mentioned methodology in the sphere of price predication of shares and funds is the main tendency in this theoretical chapter, not the profound interpretation. The work attends to concrete analysing of some basic hypothesises of common usability of our main theme, technical analysis. Price development of the selected titles and the endeavour to apply the techniques described in the theoretical chapter to these data series are included in the analytical chapter. The reader wants to make his own idea of how is the real usage of such an analysis difficult. Very helpful is also a demonstration of a big measure of subjective level in production and calculation of some indicators. Final part shows us the most interesting results for the practical usability of the mentioned methods and indicators in the sphere of the Czech Capital Market.
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The Problem of Deflation in the Japanese Context
Kudláčková, Daniela ; Dočkal, Dalibor (advisor) ; Ježek, Tomáš (referee)
In the late 1990s deflation returned to the centre of interest of economists. One of the reasons was the recent japanese experience from the 1990s when deflation followed the long-lasting recession. The aim of the work is to find out if deflation was the main reason of the japanese economic recession or if it was only a symptom of some deeper problems. In the first part the paper presents possible definitions of deflation and compares theoretical approaches to this phenomenon -- the mainstream and austrian approaches. The second part focuses directly on the japanese economy. First, it explains historical and economic circumstances which are necessary for correct evaluation of the character of japanese deflation. Next, it offers an analysis of the deflation per se, tries to investigate its character and causes. On the basis of the deep knowledge of the development of japanese economy and data analysis, the paper considers deflation more likely to be a symptom of deeper economic problems than one of the main reasons of japanese recession.
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The bearing of the latest recession on the trends in the aviation industry in the Czech republic
Csiriková, Kateřina ; Vaško, Martin (advisor) ; Valentová, Jana (referee)
This thesis aims at an assessment of the bearing of the latest recession on the trends and developments in the aviation industry in the Czech republic. The first part presents an outline of the situation of aviation industry during the economic recession and succintly characterises the current state of the aviation industry in the Czech republic. The second part focuses on the developments in aviation industry in the Czech republic in course of the economic recession and analyzes its effect on particular trends in the aviation industry. Concluding chapter evaluates the current situation in the industry based on analysis of the supporting data.
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Marketing and financial crisis
Čahojová, Kristína ; Štědroň, Bohumír (advisor) ; Procházka, Jan (referee)
The paper is describing the effects of recession on marketing in Central Europe. It is especially focused on political marketing in Czech republic, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary. The theoretical part covers definitions and the developement of political marketing. The analysis of the macroeconomic conditions and the recent developements are summarized in the first part. The impact of the crisis is described on political campaigns. New marketing trends are summarized in the conclusion.
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Crisis and recessions in the context of globalization
Hráský, Antonín ; Jiránková, Martina (advisor) ; Bič, Josef (referee)
In the first chapter, there will be described 4 different types of crisis. Second chapter will be focused on globalization in general and on development of globalization in last 150 years. Third chapter will be focused on integration of particular economies and markets (focusing international trade, capital flows, TNC and FDI). In the fourth chapter, there will be described 4 different crisis in the context of globalization (Great Depression in 30's, Oil Shocks in 70's and 80's, Asian financial crisis in 90's and Global Financial crisis 2007-?).
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