|
|
Problems with the Phillips curve in developed economies
Krupička, Michal ; Babin, Jan (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
My bachelor thesis focuses on the problems of the Phillips curve. Theoretical part is monitoring the development of the Phillips curve. In this part I describe the process of examination of this problem, that had begun a long time before introduction to work of A. W. Phillips. There are also mentioned works related to the Phillips work that were published after his paper and also some of the critics of the model. In practical part I constructed models to verify validity of the Phillips curve. Data of the Czech Republic and the United States of America were used in this part. Conclusion of practical part confirms that the validity of the Phillips curve is quite limited and that the practical use of the Phillips curve to influence the economy is not possible with this model.
|
|
|
Output-Inflation Trade-off After a Quarter of a Century of Inflation Targeting
Kamarád, Martin ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
This thesis estimates the treatment effect of inflation targeting adoption on inflation, inflation variability, output, and output variability for 25 explicit inflation targeting countries. I implement the propensity score matching methodology that takes into account the problems of non-experimental nature, such as selection bias or selection on observable, and allows me to effectively mimic properties of randomized experiment and compute unbiased treatment effect estimates. I introduce a variety of propensity score matching methods that were recently developed in the treatment effect literature, including Nearest Neighbor, Radius matching, Kernel matching, and Inverse Probability Weighting. The results indicate that both industrial and developing inflation targeting countries exhibit lower inflation levels and at the same time higher output growth than non-targeting countries. The estimates are however in most cases statistically insignificant. Moreover, it appears that both industrial and developing countries achieve combination of lower inflation variability and output variability compared to non-targeting countries. Nonetheless, majority of the estimates are again statistically insignificant. The results are to a small extent sensitive to the choice of propensity score matching method. Radius matching with tight calipers (r=0.005, r=0.001) tends to provide the most reliable estimates. Balancing properties of the models are reasonable and compared to the previous research the standardised biases are quantitatively better.
|
|
|
Econometric analysis of inflation in open economy
Rebrova, Yulia ; Formánek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Kuchina, Elena (referee)
This bachelor thesis is focused on an econometric analysis of the inflation in an open economy. The aim of this paper is to investigate factors which influence the price level. A priority is given to the analysis of Austrian and Czech economies and of their dependence on the dominant German economy. Different specifications of Phillips curve and Exchange Rate Pass-Through method are used to breakdown the inflation rate. Theoretical part of the thesis carefully summarizes already known facts about inflation and its measuring. Moreover, it includes a closer look at econometrical models which will be used in this paper. The models for each country are developed and compared in the last part of this thesis. Results show that economies of selected countries underline macroeconomic theory and the inflation rate can be expressed by Phillips curve whereas Exchange Rate Pass-Through models cannot explain the behavior of the price level well. This paper reveals the complexity of the topic.
|
|
|
Analyse of unemployment in the selected regions in the Czech Republic in the context of the dynamics of economic structure between 2005-2015
Hynek, Tomáš ; Strejček, Ivo (advisor) ; Lukášová, Tereza (referee)
The thesis analyzes the unemployment rate in the districts of Benešov, Příbram, Brno-venkov and Znojmo between 2005-2015 in the context of the dynamics of economic structure and division into the core and periphery areas. The aim of this paper is to analyze unemployment, focus on the specific characteristics of each region and the status of residents of peripheral areas on the labor market. The main task is to confirm or disprove the hypothesis which says: residents of peripheral areas are disadvantaged in the labor market due to economic changes between 2005-2015. The analysis is based on the comparison of the proportion of unemployed people aged 15-64 which provides data up to the district level. Other supporting indicators are public spending on active and passive employment policy, the educational structure of job seekers, the number of large companies in the region, the road intensity and quality of transport infrastructure. The analysis finds out that unemployment in selected regions is influenced by many factors but the number of large companies, the education of job seekers and the transport infrastructure plays the most important role.
|
|
|
The Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in the UK in the Second Half of the 20th Century
Veverka, Jaroslav ; Mirvald, Michal (advisor) ; Rod, Aleš (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to analyse the mutual relationship between the inflation rate and the rate of unemployment in the United Kingdom on quarterly based data 1962-1967. At first this thesis introduces papers and empirical studies of some important authors who formed the concept of Phillips curve. Furthermore, there are described also studies which criticize this macroeconomic concept. Within the regression analysis is researched the mutual relationship with aid of the linear, hyperbolical and the logarithmic regression model. The result of this thesis has confirmed the mutual inverse relationship between the inflation rate and the rate of unemployment in the analysed period of time which implies the existence of the Samuelson-Solow modification of the Phillips curve in the United Kingdom in 1962-1967.
|
|
|
Předpověď inflace Euro zóny pomocí Phillipsovy křivky
Michálková, Simona ; Zouhar, Jan (advisor) ; Čížek, Ondřej (referee)
The aim of this paper is to investigate various versions of the Phillips curve and their inflation forecasting ability for Euro Area. We consider autoregressive distributed lag models and use two types of trend estimation -- successive (the trend is estimated before the remaining parameters are) and join, using exponential smoothing. The versions of the Phillips curve are evaluated by rolling and recursive window methods, various selection criteria for lag variables and different combination of the inflation indicators. To evaluate the forecasted values, we calculate the RMSE in three 7-year periods: 1993-1999 (run up Euro area), 2000-2006 (stable inflation period) and 2007-2013 (financial crisis). According to all our modifications, we find some models which achieve satisfying results in terms of the RMSE, albeit not for all forecasting periods. We notice that some models are satisfactory only in the stable period however not in the periods with low inflation and vice versa.
|
|
|
Multistate Analysis of Unemployment and Additional Statistical Methods for Modelling of Unemployment
Miskolczi, Martina ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Fiala, Tomáš (referee) ; Kotýnková, Magdalena (referee)
Unemployment modelling covers both view of the labour market such as is, economy and knowledge of mathematics, statistics and, thus, econometrics. The importance of unemployment seems to be even more significant after the period of crisis; high unemployment is not only economic burden bud serious social risk and psychological problem as well. In the dissertation thesis, selected models used for unemployment modelling and -- in some cases for its prediction -- are introduced. To be able to predict the future trend of labour market reliably means to be able to plan tools of active and passive employment policies effectively. Alternatively, it means to search programs and supports that help in reduction of unemployment. Specific applications of models for the Czech labour market involve model of multistate life tables, simultaneous econometric models and Phillips curve. Phillips curve of mutual "trade-off" of unemployment and inflation is confirmed in short periods, in longer and long period of time rather fails, it is not reliable. It is not possible to use it for prediction at all; it would be needed to predict inflation. Analogous characteristics has the Beveridge curve. Simultaneous econometric models for number of economically active persons and for unemployment and inflation de facto fail, even though they demonstrate the range of opportunities including point and interval forecasts. Period of economic crisis when changes in labour market principles occur means usually problem for such the models, which work well in periods of stable growth or decline. More, it is difficult to specify these models correctly with regard to threat of multikolinearity. Multistate models aiming at calculation of multistate life tables, or even multistate projection are extremely demanding for input data. But they enable to understand relations or transitions among states, respectively. It is very beneficial tool for comprehension and policy planning in the area of labour market and social affairs in the process of lowering unemployment. Forecasts in such a type of model are possible but difficult because it is necessary to predict probability of transition among states.
|
|
|
Application of Phillips curves in the years 2011 - 2013 for selected countries of the European Union and the comparison with the Czech Republic
Šefara, Ivan ; Adámek, Petr (advisor) ; Sirůček, Pavel (referee)
The foundation for my senior thesis is based on the theoretical model of Phillips curve and its analysis which is aimed at defining the relationship between inflation and unemployment rates. The curve was constructed in order to determine the short- and long-term transformation periods in various economies. The Philips curve was modeled using linear regression and the interrelationship between previously mentioned inflation and unemployment rates is evaluated via correlation analysis. For this research, it was essential to gather and organize empirical and statistical data of Czech Republic and other chosen countries of the European Union. Further, I will examine the compiled statistical data for the Philips curve model and try to confirm the validity of the data.
|
|
|
Methodology of the Phillips Curve from the Austrian perspective
Němec, Ondřej ; Slaný, Martin (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
This bachelor's thesis examines the Phillips curve from a few different points of view. It shows the econometric method that was used to construct the Phillips curve and explains why, from Austrian School of economics' point of view, this method isn't a valid approach to examining the nature of human action. It explains the connection between money supply and price level and discusses consequences of monetary expansion. Using the Austrian business cycle theory it explains the true relationship between rate of inflation and rate of unemployment and argues that in the long run, this relationship is positive. This hypothesis is also supported by empiric observation using Niskanen's model of the Phillips curve.
|
|
|
Political cycles: Do the politics buy their voters' ballots with higher expenditures?
Fischerová, Veronika ; Vostrovská, Zdenka (advisor) ; Procházka, Pavel (referee)
The present thesis is concerned with the existence of political cycles in European Union member states between 1990 and 2013. These cycles are of two types: political business cycles and political budget cycles. The analysis was performed by means of the fixed effects method (using first differences) along with a visual analysis of data. The results obtained from three types of data sets show that two years before elections, inflation grows at 0.47%, unemployment rate at 0.5%, and structural balance at 0.8%. One of the data sets reveals that structural balance is reduced by 0.39% in election years. The visual analysis clearly demonstrates that there exist political business cycles in Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Poland and Sweden. Political budget cycles have been proven to exist in Belgium, France, Cyprus, Malta, Germany, Slovakia and the United Kingdom.
|
guest ::
