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Nowcasting as the new potential predicting method for the policy-makers
Chaloupka, David ; Kofroň, Jan (advisor) ; Parízek, Michal (referee)
This bachelor's thesis examines the role of nowcasting as a real-time data pre- diction approach in policy-making. The study compares the informative value of macroeconomic forecasting during crises and the potential of nowcasting as an alternative. By analyzing selected forecasting and nowcasting indexes from 2019 to 2022, the research fnds that nowcasting performs well during during 2020, which was afected by COVID-19 pandemic. However, it faces limitations in terms of prediction horizon and data requirements. Although forecasting may lose its informative value during crises, nowcasting cannot entirely replace it. Instead, both approaches can complement each other, enhancing policy decisions. The thesis also highlights nowcasting's potential for policy analysis and also its use in science.
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The Polish model of the populist party: a new perspective on the populist radical right
Greger, Vojtěch ; Kofroň, Jan (advisor) ; Guasti, Petra (referee)
The Polish model of the populist party: a new perspective on the populist radical right Master's thesis Bc. Vojtěch Greger Abstract The rise of the populist radical right (PRR), a group of parties critical of the established norms of Western liberal democracy, in the 2010s, manifesting itself in events such as Brexit or the illiberal takeover of Hungary, has been a subject of considerable attention both from academics and the general public, and has been viewed with great concern. Academic studies of the PRR have often elevated the nativist elements in such parties' rhetoric while paying considerably less attention to the economic appeals thereof. However, in recent years, literature highlighting the importance of economic deprivation in fomenting support for Eurosceptic and PRR movements has begun to appear. This thesis is predicated on this literature's argument that the electoral successes of the PRR are very often driven precisely by economic deprivation and the discontent stemming from it. To illustrate our argument, we examine the electoral support of the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party in the 2015 and 2019 elections using ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Our findings show that structural economic factors, mainly the share of workers employed in...
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Novus ordo seclorum: A Historical Analysis of American Isolationism
Young, Caine ; Kofroň, Jan (advisor) ; Romancov, Michael (referee)
The central tenets of this thesis seek to explain what American isolationist theory is and how it first emerged in the country. Written as follows is a broad analysis of why the specific brand of American isolation had remarkable longevity throughout the foundational years of the early and later stages of the American epoch, even in drastically changing geopolitical conditions. Concurrently, the thesis will seek to question why, and if, specific and seminal geopolitical events represented breaches by the foreign policy elite of the foundational international relations theory of American nonintervention. These events discussed serve as important unifying case study examples of American foreign policy thinking and political and military action more generally. The cases include the Mexican-American War; the Spanish- American War; and the Second World War respectively. Then, current case study examples are discussed to judge the implications of a returning isolationist strain in American political life. After careful consideration of academic literature and analysis of resources spanning written public speeches from leading policymakers, intellectuals, business leaders, and civic minds of their times, as well as raw numerical data research, a combination of foundational principles surrounding offensive...
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NORTHERN EUROPE AND THE LOOMING RUSSIA: IS EUROPE (NOT) ENOUGH? Different approaches to a European integrated defence: the cases of Norway and Finland.
Bertoldini, Raul ; Kofroň, Jan (advisor) ; Riegl, Martin (referee)
RAUL BERTOLDINI MASTER'S THESIS ABSTRACT 08/2023 NORTHERN EUROPE AND THE LOOMING RUSSIA: IS EUROPE (NOT) ENOUGH? Different approaches to a European integrated defence: the cases of Norway and Finland This master's thesis investigates Finland and Norway's geopolitical landscape and security strategies amid Europe's evolving security environment. The research scrutinises how these Nordic nations have managed their relations with the European Union (EU), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and Russia, set against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Arctic region. An in-depth analysis of historical contexts, paths to EU membership, and debates on NATO affiliation underscore the intricate balance these countries maintain in preserving their unique national identities and sovereignty while engaging with regional structures and alliances for security. The study illustrates how the Ukraine conflict prompted strategic realignments, with both Finland and Norway opting for closer ties with the EU and NATO to protect their sovereignty, yet they perceive the security guarantees offered by these two organisations differently. Ultimately, the thesis offers valuable insights into the adaptive and proactive strategies these countries employ in response to current...
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Fast hash-based signing protocol for message stream authentication
Mejzlík, František ; Zavoral, Filip (advisor) ; Kofroň, Jan (referee)
Security of the data streaming over Internet becomes a challenge if re- quirements such as post-quantum-capable cryptography and complete de- centralisation must be addressed. This thesis develops a connection-less, re-broadcastable data streaming protocol that allows a wholly decentralised, petname-based quantum-robust authentication of streaming sources based solely on the post-quantum hash-based few-time signature schemes. As the main contribution, the thesis benchmarks various trade-offs given by the problematic ephemeral nature of identities based on the few-time signature schemes and by the desired networking properties of the streaming proto- col. The benchmarks show that the schemes are practically extensible to realistic use cases, with only minor overhead. The proof-of-concept proto- col implementation is provided as a Rust library, together with the example application for live audio broadcasting. 1
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Static Analysis of NumPy Programs
Zimen, Martin ; Kofroň, Jan (advisor) ; Blicha, Martin (referee)
NumPy programs can be hard to debug. Due to the dynamic nature of Python, a bug can manifest itself after a long time of run time. This causes the computation to crash, ditching all the progress. Existing static analysis tools can't detect NumPy-specific errors. We propose a solution that uses data-flow analysis combined with symbolic execution to detect ndarray shape mismatch errors. With a dynamic set of symbols, our method tracks ndarray dimensions and constraints between them throughout the program. It uses an SMT solver to solve the constraints and locate the bug. Our implementation understands core NumPy constructs and detects some shape mismatch errors for 1D and 2D ndarrays.
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Data logging and visualization for Mailtrain using IVIS
Štrobl, Filip ; Bureš, Tomáš (advisor) ; Kofroň, Jan (referee)
Mailtrain is a self-hosted, free and open-source newsletter application with advanced options for managing lists of subscribers, creating and sending e-mail campaigns, and managing multiple users with granular permissions and flexible sharing. The application lacks good options for analyzing and visualizing its data for the purposes of tracking performance or security. IVIS is a framework offering the data processing and visualizing tools Mailtrain needs, and the two projects share many key technologies. In this thesis, we extend Mailtrain so that it uses IVIS and its services for logging, visualization, and analysis of its data. An emphasis is given to the extensibility of both the data logged from Mailtrain and the ways it is visualized. 1
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