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A Meta-Analysis of FDI Spillovers in China
Herman, Dominik ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
Assessment of the foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers in the People's Republic of China (PRC) has become a lively area of research in the past decades; nonetheless, the existing primary literature seems to be inconclusive. The present thesis revises the literature through a meta-analytical approach using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Considering that the previous liter- ature reviews are of either inferior quality or incomparable focus, our research is based on a collection of 1081 estimates from 14 primary studies published between 2007 and 2017 comprising data from 1995 to 2012. A variety of 85 characteristics of the observations is coded whilst we employ at least 30 of these within each BMA estimation. Through separate testing of individual spillover measures (horizontal, forward, and backward), an extensive evidence of publication bias is collected for horizontal spillovers in PRC-exaggerating the mean magnitude of the reported estimates. Finally, the thesis identifies that the spillover effect from FDI inflows originating from the area of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan is systematically different from the others. JEL Classification O1, O3, O4 Keywords FDI, spillover effect, China, PRC, meta- analysis, publication bias, BMA Author's e-mail hermandominik@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail...
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Impacts of Ethanol Policy on Corn Prices: A Meta-Analysis
Horáček, Přemysl ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
Deflecting a significant portion of corn production to ethanol for fuelling purposes increases the prices of corn. Although many studies examined the relationship between biofuels and agricultural commodity prices in the last decade, their estimates vary broadly (from nil to 85%). Without knowing the precise estimates of these impacts, policymakers can hardly set the biofuel policies optimally. I conduct a meta-analysis of over 150 estimates of the effect of corn ethanol production on corn prices to bring more clarity to the issue. Furthermore, I detect substantial selective reporting bias in the literature. After controlling for this bias with the use of various methods including the mixedeffects multilevel model, the results show that the true effect of a one billion gallon expansion in corn ethanol on corn prices is about 2-3%, which is less than commonly thought.
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The Elasticity of Trade with Respect to Trade Costs: A Meta-Analysis
Tlustá, Anna ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to present a meta-analysis of studies that are focused on the relation between the international trade flow and the trade costs. The effect of trade costshasbecomeoneofthekeyelementstoresolvethesixmajor puzzles in the bilateral trade flow. I examine 1,090 estimates of the trade cost effect reported in 58 studies, codify 51 aspects of study design that may influencetheestimates.Iuse meta-regression analysis to investigate why trade costs effects vary. The results suggest that different methods and mainly data characteristics systematically affect the estimated trade costs effects. I find evidence for publication selection bias by using the appropriate tests. The authors of primary studies tend to report preferentially large estimates of the elasticity of trade with respect to trade costs. The evidence for publication selection bias is stronger for studies reported in peer-reviewed journals thanfor unpublished studies.
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The Price Elasticity of the Demand for Higher Education: A Meta-Analysis
Kiiashko, Olesia ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Korbel, Václav (referee)
The main question of this study is whether the demand for higher education is relatively sensitive to tuition fee changes or is price inelastic. There is no definite answer in the literature. Approximately 52% of the estimates show it to be insignificant, 43% rate it as statistically negative, and approximately 5% are statistically positive. In a quantitative survey of 562 estimates reported in 48 studies, it has been found that large increases in tuition fees have a disproportionately negative impact on enrollment when potential publication bias and method heterogeneity are taken into account. The publication bias tests show that negative results are more preferable among researchers, because it is well supported by theory (when prices increase demand decreases). The results also suggest that four aspects of study design are especially effective in explaining the differences across primary studies: (1) the longer time period negatively associated with the price c of demand for higher education, (2) while the cross sectional estimations have reported more negative results, panel data estimations have reported fewer negative results, (3) controlling for endogeneity is crucial, (4) while controlling for unemployment rate has no clear conclusive impact, controlling for income is not significantly...
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Income Elasticity of Water Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Vlach, Tomáš ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
If policymakers address water scarcity with the demand-oriented approach, the income elasticity of water demand is of pivotal importance. Its estimates, however, differ considerably. We collect 307 estimates of the income elasticity of water demand reported in 62 studies, codify 31 variables describing the estimation design, and employ Bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty inherent to any meta-analysis. The studies were published between 1972 and 2015, which means that this meta-analysis covers a longer period of time than two previous meta-analyses on this topic combined. Our results suggest that income elasticity estimates for developed countries do not significantly differ from income elasticity estimates for developing countries and that different estimation techniques do not systematically produce different values of the income elasticity of water demand. We find evidence of publication selection bias in the literature on the income elasticity of water demand with the use of both graphical and regression analysis. We correct the estimates for publication selection bias and estimate the true effect beyond bias, which reaches approximately 0.2. 1
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Does Daylight Saving Time Save Energy?: A Meta-Analysis
Herman, Dominik ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Zeynalov, Ayaz (referee)
Daylight saving time energy savings have always represented a contentious topic requiring empirical evidence for, or against. Unfortunately, as the conclusions are miscellaneous-without an evident pattern of heterogeneity occurrence-insisting on particular case studies and narrative literature reviews seems to be insufficient. In this thesis, set of various studies concerning the effect of daylight saving time on energy savings is examined through meta-regression analysis to provide an accurate estimate of the effect corrected from publication bias, and other distorting and deflecting effects. We find that the mean reported estimate in the literature suggests 0.3% energy savings; our results suggest no signs of publication bias. On the contrary, the study design turned to be a substantial determinant of the primary literature findings. The thesis provides a unique overview for this is the first meta-analysis conducted on the daylight saving time energy savings. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Income Elasticity of Electricity Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Hauzr, Marek ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
In this thesis we look over the previous studies on income elasticity of electricity demand and on previous meta-analysis on the topic. We outline the meta-analytical tools and we carry out the MRA itself. We show the presence of publication bias and that the elasticity's true effect is lower than commonly thought, from 8 times less than the mean estimate in short-run to 2 times less than the mean estimate in long-run. To our knowledge this thesis is the first meta-analysis on this topic that takes publication bias into account. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Six Essays on Meta-Regression Analysis
Havránková, Zuzana ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee) ; Babecký, Jan (referee) ; Fidrmuc, Jarko (referee)
This dissertation thesis consists of six papers on macroeconomics, international economics, and energy economics. All the papers are tied together by the use of meta-regression analysis, which is essential for the derivation of robust policy-relevant conclusions from often conflicting results presented in the empirical literature. I use meta-analysis to quantitatively synthesize the reported research results on a given topic, correct the literature for publication selection bias, and filter out the effect of various misspecifications present in some primary studies. My results can be summarized as follows: 1) The elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption, a key input to all dynamic models in finance and macroeconomics, varies significantly across countries. The differences can be explained by the level of stock market participation, when countries with higher participation exhibit larger values of the elasticity; the mean reported elasticity is 0.5. 2) The effect of borders on international trade, which most authors find to be surprisingly large, can be explained away by innovations in methodology introduced in the last decade. When these innovations are taken into account jointly, the border effect disappears for developed countries, and is relatively small for developing countries. 3) When...
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Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Horáček, Přemysl ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Polák, Petr (referee)
During the last decades, one of the most intensively examined statistical relationships in energy economics has been the price elasticity of electricity demand. In this thesis, a quantitative survey of the estimates of price elasticity reported for various countries is provided. The method I use, called meta-regression analysis, indicates that the literature suffers from serious publication selection bias: positive or insignificant estimates of this elasticity are seldom reported, even though questionably large negative estimates are reported commonly. As a result, the average published estimates of price elasticity are greatly exaggerated (more than threefold in the case of short-run elasticity). By utilising the mixed- effects multilevel meta-regression, which is able to correct for publication selection bias, it is shown that the true average elasticity reaches only -0.06 in the short-run, -0.21 in the intermediate-run and about -0.43 in the long-run.
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