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PPI and CPI: What is the relationship?
Červený, David ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis examines the relationship between the PPI and the CPI in the Czech Republic and the euro area. The primary method used in this thesis is the Granger causality test. Granger causality between the price indices is tested for in a bivariate model and also conditional on other variables describing the development of real GDP, a given monetary aggregate and wages. The most apparent conclusion that can be drawn from the empirical results indicates that the PPI Granger-causes the CPI in the Czech Republic and that there is no Granger causality going from the CPI to the PPI in the euro area. These results are consistent with conventional economic theory, which suggests a pass-through effect in the production chain going from producer prices to consumer prices.
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Adoption of the Euro in the Czech Republic
KLÁSKOVÁ, Lucie
The bachelor's thesis introduces the issue of the theoretical adoption of the Euro in the Czech Republic to which the country was undertaken in the process of accession to the European Union in 2004. There is not fixed date for joining the Euro Area yet, despite meeting part of requirements in the past. The presumption of Euro acceptance is the government decision and to fulfil the criteria. The main aim is to give a detailed description of the process of the switching to the Euro Area with all economic and legal aspect. The thesis describes the history of the Economic and Monetary Union, its current situation, scenarios of adoption and national plan. There are answered the issues of when and how it will be the most profitable way to adopt the Euro and what are the main benefits and risks. In conclusion, there is described and analysed the process of fulfilment of the Maastricht convergence criteria and amendment arising from the transition to the single currency.
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Default Risk of Greek Government During the Crisis of 2010
Veselý, Oldřich ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Báťa, Karel (referee)
Many people have already questioned whether Greece would default: investors, economists, politicians and general public. The Greek debt crisis has also caused a great turmoil in the EU causing fears of its spreading to other countries with poor fiscal situation in Eurozone through bond markets. Finally the rescue package was prepared for Greece consisting of EUR 110 billion loan facility from both Eurozone and IMF. We study the Greek fiscal crisis in the thesis. We try to find its real causes in the historical chapter and we also show the methodology which can be used to assess the credit risk of Greek government using bond market information and CDS contracts information. In the empirical part we study the evolution of the probability of default of Greek government during the debt crisis using parsimonious model based on the bond market information.
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ECB Monetary Policy: "One Size Doesn't Fit All" Problem and Its Impact on Credits Volume
Nedvěd, Petr ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
In this work, I analyse inappropriateness of single monetary policy in the euro area and its impact on credit growth for the oldest twelve euro members and a time period spanning 1999Q1-2013Q3. The inappropriateness is expressed by deviations of actual interest rate from Taylor rule prescriptions. The obtained results are in line with a majority of existing literature since they show that the ECB's single interest rate was the least suitable for the so called PIIGS countries prior to the recent economic crisis. The impact of the deviations on credit growth is estimated econometrically by dynamic panel data estimation. The findings confirm my hypothesis that the deviations from the Taylor rule have a significant positive effect on credits volume, i.e. the higher is the Taylor rule prescription above the actual rate, the higher is the credit growth.
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SME Access to Finance and Monetary Policy of the ECB
Brázdová, Martina ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to provide new insights into determinants of firm access to finance, and the role of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy. Not only do we describe and analyze the determinants of access to finance, but we focus on the theory of financial intermediation, as well. The key part analyses European Commission (EC)/ECB survey data for 16 euro area economies from 11 survey waves in the period from 2009 to 2014. We build our model using traditional firm-level variables such as firm size and age as well as a novel measure of the ECB's monetary policy stance - the shadow rate. We hypothesize that smaller and younger firms with decreased profitability over the past 6 months and increased leverage over the same period are more likely to report problems with access to finance. Our results are intuitively consistent with theoretical expectations and also show that the looser the monetary policy of the ECB is, the lower the composite financing gap indicator. Interestingly, we do not confirm the existence of risk taking channel of the monetary policy. Overall, we make use of the most recent survey data, extend the dataset, and use modified methodology for our estimation.
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Time-scale analysis of sovereign bonds market co-movement in the EU
Šmolík, Filip ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
The thesis analyses co-movement of 10Y sovereign bond yields of 11 EU mem- bers (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands, Great Britain, Belgium, Sweden and Denmark) divided into the three groups (the Core of the Eurozone, the Periphery of the Eurozone, the states outside the Eurozone). In the center of attention are changes of co-movement in the crisis period, especially near the two significant dates - the fall of Lehman Brothers (15.9.2008) and the day, when increase of Greek public deficit was announced (20.10.2009). Main contribution of the thesis is usage of alternative methodol- ogy - wavelet transformation. It allows to research how co-movement changes across scales (frequencies) and through time. Wavelet coherence is used as well as wavelet bivariate and multiple correlation. The thesis brings three main findings: (1) co-movement significantly decreased in the crisis period, but the results differ in the groups, (2) co-movement significantly differs across scales, but its heterogeneity decreased in the crisis period, (3) near to the examined dates sharp and significant decrease of wavelet correlation was observable across lower scales in some states. JEL Classification C32, C49, C58, H63 Keywords Co-movement, Wavelet Transformation, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Sovereign Bond Yields,...
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Meta-Analysis in Economics: Application to Measuring the Euro's Trade Effect
Polák, Petr ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Havránková, Zuzana (referee)
Meta-analysis is a very strong and effective tool designed for the synthesis of results of empirical research. It provides a possibility to make reliable conclusions and offers more systematic and unbiased view at empirical studies than do narrative reviews. This thesis begins with description of meta-analysis from the theoretical point of view and, therefore, is the first Czech-written methodology of modern meta-analysis suitable for economics. This part is followed by an applied meta-analysis that investigates the euro effect on common trade exchange, and the analysis is focused on publication bias and the use of the multilevel random effects model. The empirical part is based on 2580 estimates gathered from 33 studies that investigate the relationship between euro and trade volume. The meta-analysis reveals the presence of publication bias, confirms the economic research cycle hypothesis and estimates, according to the available literature, that the true Rose effect lies probably between 2 and 6 percent.
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France and the reform of the eurozone - from Sarkozy to Hollande
Juhás, Tomáš ; Šlosarčík, Ivo (advisor) ; Bauer, Paul (referee)
Bibliografický záznam JUHÁS, Tomáš. France and the reform of the eurozone - from Sarkozy to Hollande. Praha, 2015. 68 s. Diplomová práce (Mgr.) Univerzita Karlova, Fakulta sociálních věd, Institut mezinárodních studií. Katedra západoevropských studií. Vedoucí diplomové práce Doc. JUDr. PhDr. Ivo Šlosarčík, LL.M., Ph.D. Abstract The thesis seeks to map and explain the change of mind of President François Hollande with regard to the overall austerity in the eurozone. In early 2012, the President-to-be Hollande campaigned on a wave of desire for change and his campaign promises and election program promised a radically new approach towards economic and fiscal policies in the eurozone once he became president. The most explicit manifestation of this change should have been the renegotiation of the fiscal compact, formally the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union. However, once in office, the new socialist president made very little to change the overall course of austerity at home and in the euro area. To explain this unexpected outcome, the thesis employs the sociological-political concept of the field of Eurocracy, derived from the sociology of Pierre Bourdieu and developed in the French academia by Didier Georgakakis and Jay Rowell. In such context, President...
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The Impact of Theory of Optimal Currency Areas on Discursus of Political Parties ČSSD and ODS about the Entry to the Eurozone Between the Years 2010 - 2012
Müller, Lukáš ; Kasáková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Svoboda, Karel (referee)
1 Abstract This essay is about the theory of optimal currency areas (OCA) and its reflection in public discussion of two biggest political parties in Czech Republic - ODS and ČSSD, about Czech Republic entering the European Monetary Union (EMU). Although EMU hadn't met the criteria of OCA before the examined period, both parties entered the elections in May 2010 with more or less pro-european program despite decreasing support of eurozone in Czech public opinion. ČSSD, as well as ODS, only limitedly mentioned the OCA in their argumentation whereas they explained their attitude with other reasons. While ČSSD remained loyal to its pro European policy even after the election, ODS started diverting from their European agenda right after them. This process ended with their demand for referendum about the entry of Czech Republic to the Eurozone. Before the elections, Social Democrats were the ones to discuss this topic the most, but afterwards their rhetoric limited mostly to reactions to public statements and actions of ODS only.
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