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Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy: Rivals or Teammates?
Malovaná, Simona ; Frait, Jan
This paper sheds some light on situations in which monetary and macroprudential policies may interact (and potentially get into conflict) and contributes to the discussion about the coordination of those policies. Using data for the Czech Republic and five euro area countries we show that monetary tightening has a negative impact on the credit-to-GDP ratio and the non-risk-weighted bank capital ratio (i.e. a positive impact on bank leverage), while these effects have strengthened considerably since mid-2011. This supports the view that accommodative monetary policy contributes to a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, i.e. it boosts the credit cycle. On the other hand, the effect of the higher bank capital ratio is associated with some degree of uncertainty. For these and other reasons, coordination of the two policies is necessary to avoid an undesirable policy mix preventing effective achievement of the main objectives in the two policy areas.
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Essay on Financial Innovation, Credit Constraints, and Welfare
Janíčko, Martin ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Tlustý, Adolf (referee) ; Pavelka, Tomáš (referee) ; Frait, Jan (referee)
The submitted thesis is composed of three different articles dealing with issues of financial innovation, credit constraints, and their impact on welfare. The first article treats the contemporary theoretical grasp of the interaction between the financial and real economies, focusing primarily on the role of modern financial innovation in the business cycle. For this purpose, a framework promoted by the Regulation School and Post Keynesians is frequently employed, whilst some other unorthodox streams and mainstream economics are partially discussed as well. All of them aspire -- either per se or under the pressure of the contemporary economic agenda -- to clarify the evolution of financial innovation and credit in the recent era. It is generally found that certain consensus across the schools of economic thought exists, but some of them have done a better job in predicting the consequences of the financial innovation for real economic activity than others. Further, two dynamic macroeconomic models are developed in order to, inter alia, identify the possible effects of extended credit availability presented in the former article on the example of the housing market, and simulate the effects of housing price changes on general welfare. Clearly, this part of the thesis exhibits the indirect consequences of financial innovation as, once again, being rather ambiguous: after having partially unleashed the unprecedented credit granting in the economy, impacting interest rates and loan-to-value ratios, with a subsequent impact on housing prices, it has also influenced credit constrained and unconstrained households in a different manner. Based on an analysis of the situation using partial and general equilibrium analytical frameworks, two somewhat different conclusions are drawn up with respect to the occurrence of various shocks in the models. Under the partial equilibrium framework the effects of relaxation of credit constraints are visible and quite straightforward, indicating relatively simple and intuitive relationship between the price appreciation and general welfare. This is primarily perspicuous for the credit constrained households. In the general equilibrium framework, on the other hand, the transitional dynamics of shock proliferation is more transparent and the impact on credit constrained vs. unconstrained households is more ambiguous and much different from the basic intuition used in the article anchored in the partial equilibrium toolbox.
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Macroprudential Policy and Its Instruments in a Small EU Economy
Frait, Jan ; Komárková, Zlatuše
This paper focuses on the way the macroprudential policy framework in a small EU economy should be designed. With reference to the experience of the Czech Republic’s financial system and the Czech National Bank it provides definitions of financial stability and macroprudential policy as well as of their objectives. It then explains how systemic risk evolves over the financial cycle and outlines approaches to preventing systemic risk in the accumulation stage of the cycle and subsequently mitigating the materialisation of such risk if prevention fails. The paper argues that for the establishment of a macroprudential policy framework in a bank-based economy with a relatively simple and small financial sector, the phenomenon of procyclical behaviour has to stand centrally. Correspondingly, a macroprudential authority in such an economy has to look primarily at cyclically induced sources of systemic risks. Nevertheless, structural sources of systemic risks and associated instruments are discussed as well. The arguments for the recommended arrangements are supported by empirical investigations into the extent of procyclicality in European banks’ lending behaviour and the contribution of the regulatory and accounting framework to it. JEL
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Long-term equilibrium real exchange rate of the crown and its determinants
Frait, Jan ; Komárek, Luboš
The primary objective of this work is to analyze the long-term determinants of the real exchange rate and the application of econometric methods to find out which ones and to what extent affect the real exchange rate. A secondary goal is to assess the development of the real exchange rate during the economic transformation and discuss to what extent this course could become overvalued in 1997-98.
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Foreign debt, capital flows and the real exchange rate
Frait, Jan ; Komárek, Luboš
The aim of this study was to enrich the debate on the theory search equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech currency. It seeks to highlight the importance of monitoring the real dimension of the economic fundamentals and bring new life into the debate about its long-term development, and using the concept of debt-customized real exchange rate (DARER) define a simple and pragmatic tool to assess potential overvaluation.
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Nominal monetary convergence
Čech, Zdeněk ; Brůžek, Antonín (advisor) ; Jakš, Jaroslav (referee) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee) ; Frait, Jan (referee)
Dizertační práce identifikuje a klasifikuje možná rizika měnové konvergence v procesu přistoupení k eurozóně u nových členských zemí Evropské unie, tj. včetně České republiky. Propojením výsledků komplexního rozboru institucionálního rámce Hospodářské a měnové unie a analýzy vývoje inflace a měnového kurzu u stávajících členů eurozóny v konvergenčním období identifikuje možné alternativy měnového přiblížení k euru. Závěry přispívají do diskuse o dilematech hospodářské politiky, které čekají nové členské země EU v dalších fázích integrace do evropských měnových struktur.
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Integrace finančního trhu České republiky s eurozónou
Komárková, Zlatuše ; Frait, Jan (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee) ; Macháček, Martin (referee)
Disertační práce ?INTEGRACE FINANČNÍHO TRHU ČESKÉ REPUBLIKY S EUROZÓNOU? se zabývá teoretickými, modelovými a empirickými dimenzemi fenoménu finanční integrace České republiky a ostatních vybraných eurokandidátů (Maďarska, Polska a Slovenska) s eurozónou. Jejím cílem je analýza existence a dynamiky integrace na jednotlivých dílčích finančních trzích, tj. devizovém, peněžním, úvěrovém, dluhopisovém a akciovém, za použití aplikace konceptů sigma a beta konvergence doplněné o analýzu sladěnosti a dalších podpůrných přístupů ve formě kryté úrokové parity a tzv. spekulativní efektivnosti měnových trhů. Práce se ve svých empirických částech opírá o následující kvantitativní metody: standardní a rolovanou korelační analýzu, standardní a rolovanou regresní analýzu, stavově-prostorový model, modely panelových dat, kointegrační analýzu a modely volatility typu GARCH.
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