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Who votes for populist parties in Czechia?
Maxová, Anna ; Dvořák, Tomáš (advisor) ; Stropnický, Matěj (referee)
Besides continuously growing influence of populism, there is also an increasing interest in studies analysing the electorate of populist parties and factions. This is also taken into account by this thesis, the aim of which was to identify the common characteristics of voters of populist parties in the Czech Republic. Measured were especially factors appropriate to the current knowledge of populist voters in Europe. The most common factors, which may induce the individual to become populist, are considered by authors as Euroscepticism, disapproval of migration, dissatisfaction with the local political scene or economic deprivation. Yet the studies are unable to concur, as both the form of populism and factors, which increase the probability of electing populist parties on an individual level, differ across the countries. In the Czech Republic, populism is most represented by the factions ANO 2011 and SPD. According to this thesis, the electorate of these factions does not share quintessential aspects of populist voters across Europe. Rejection of EU membership is a significant predictor of the SPD election, however; a negative attitude towards migration could not be demonstrated. In the case of the ANO 2011 electorate, all established hypotheses have to be dismissed, there are almost no common...
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Application of Paired comparison method in election research
Lišková, Kristýna ; Jeřábek, Hynek (advisor) ; Krejčí, Jindřich (referee)
Author of these thesis researches the ability Paired comparison method to predict the results in the presidential elections during January 2018 ( the first and the second round). The pair comparison method is based on the assessment of individual candidates in combinations (pairs) where two candidates stand against each other and there is a judge who compares them in all combinations. The author carried out an investigation using three standardized questionnaires. She has applied the method in the first questionnaire and surveyed the actual choice of the respondents in the other two questionnaires. There were 392 respondents who participated in the complete questionnaire surfy and their answers were analyzed and compared with their results of Paired comparison method. The thesis also shows the accuracy of the method and the suitability of the application, as well as the ability to predict the results of undecided voters. The Paired comparison method in prediction of the results of the first round, but was able to estimate the results of the second round. The author concludes that Paired comparison method should be used in several round types of elections or those where two candidates stand against each other. There are also examined the disadvantages and risks of the method.
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Voters and Non-voters in the Czech Republic
Vavřinová, Tereza ; Linek, Lukáš (advisor) ; Hendl, Jan (referee)
This study discusses voting behavior of the citizens in The Czech republic. Traditional studies of voting behavior differentiate between voters and nonvoters according to their turnout in one election. This thesis takes up multielection approach and differentiates three categories of voting behavior- voters, nonvoters and irregular voters. Specific features of voters, nonvoters and irregular voters are identified using logistic regression analysis. Theoretically, the study is based on socioeconomic, motivational and mobilization theories of turnout. The focus is put on the decision making of irregular voters. Circumstances tied with irregular voters' turnout are identified. The discussion on methodological problems connected with multi-election approach and research of electoral behavior generally is part of the thesis. The Czech election study 2010 is a main source of the data for analysis.
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The Rise of Direct Democracy in the Czech Republic: Sources, Use and Consequences
Dvořák, Tomáš ; Kabele, Jiří (advisor) ; Šaradín, Pavel (referee) ; Vráblíková, Kateřina (referee)
In the last few decades there has been an expansion of institutions of direct democracy in most developed countries. The Czech Republic has been no exception and over the past 25 years, there has been a rise of direct democracy in the Czech Republic. The aim of the dissertation is an analysis of the use of direct democracy in the Czech Republic. Although the analyses are based mainly on data from the Czech Republic, the aim is also to contribute to scholarly debates in the field of direct democracy research. I focus on the following questions: Who supports the use of direct democracy and who participates in it in the Czech Republic? How do voters form opinions and what are the characteristics of direct democracy campaigns? What is the effect of direct democracy on other forms of political participation? I view direct democracy as an institutional innovation and evaluate it based on three criterions: inclusiveness, competence and efficiency. First, I focus on who supports the expansion of direct democracy. I also study the patterns of turnout of various social groups in direct democracy (inclusiveness). Second, I analyse the processes of opinion formation in direct democracy campaigns to find out, whether it can be regarded as competent or not. Last, I analyse whether direct democracy leads to increased or...
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Application of Paired comparison method in election research
Lišková, Kristýna ; Jeřábek, Hynek (advisor) ; Krejčí, Jindřich (referee)
Author of these thesis researches the ability Paired comparison method to predict the results in the presidential elections during January 2018 ( the first and the second round). The pair comparison method is based on the assessment of individual candidates in combinations (pairs) where two candidates stand against each other and there is a judge who compares them in all combinations. The author carried out an investigation using three standardized questionnaires. She has applied the method in the first questionnaire and surveyed the actual choice of the respondents in the other two questionnaires. There were 392 respondents who participated in the complete questionnaire surfy and their answers were analyzed and compared with their results of Paired comparison method. The thesis also shows the accuracy of the method and the suitability of the application, as well as the ability to predict the results of undecided voters. The Paired comparison method in prediction of the results of the first round, but was able to estimate the results of the second round. The author concludes that Paired comparison method should be used in several round types of elections or those where two candidates stand against each other. There are also examined the disadvantages and risks of the method.
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The Rise of Direct Democracy in the Czech Republic: Sources, Use and Consequences
Dvořák, Tomáš ; Kabele, Jiří (advisor) ; Šaradín, Pavel (referee) ; Vráblíková, Kateřina (referee)
In the last few decades there has been an expansion of institutions of direct democracy in most developed countries. The Czech Republic has been no exception and over the past 25 years, there has been a rise of direct democracy in the Czech Republic. The aim of the dissertation is an analysis of the use of direct democracy in the Czech Republic. Although the analyses are based mainly on data from the Czech Republic, the aim is also to contribute to scholarly debates in the field of direct democracy research. I focus on the following questions: Who supports the use of direct democracy and who participates in it in the Czech Republic? How do voters form opinions and what are the characteristics of direct democracy campaigns? What is the effect of direct democracy on other forms of political participation? I view direct democracy as an institutional innovation and evaluate it based on three criterions: inclusiveness, competence and efficiency. First, I focus on who supports the expansion of direct democracy. I also study the patterns of turnout of various social groups in direct democracy (inclusiveness). Second, I analyse the processes of opinion formation in direct democracy campaigns to find out, whether it can be regarded as competent or not. Last, I analyse whether direct democracy leads to increased or...
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Success of New Political Parties - ANO and Úsvit in the Elections to the House of Commons in CZ 2013
Farkač, Jan ; Jeřábek, Hynek (advisor) ; Císař, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis deals with the success of the two newly formed parties ANO 2011 and Úsvit přímé demokracie Tomia Okamury in the elections to the House of Commons in the Czech Republic in 2013. These two parties gained a substantial percentage of votes and became part of the government despite the fact, that they were established shortly before the elections. In the theoretical part of this thesis, the formation and success of new parties abroad and in the Czech Republic is analysed. The main focus are the voters voting these parties, so there is an extended part dealing with voting behavior in the Czech Republic. Secondary analysis is the research method used in this thesis; its advantages are discussed in the methodological part. Secondary analysis of multiple high quality data sets is used to compare the voters of the new parties and the voters of other established parties. It turns out there are significant differences between these two groups in the areas of sociodemography, political views and experiences and even outlooks on life. The trend of new parties, which started already in the 2010 elections, is obviously continuing and it seems that it is even broadening.
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