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Economic research bulletin (2007, No.1)
Heřmánek, Jaroslav ; Hlaváček, Michal ; Jakubík, Petr ; Geršl, Adam ; Derviz, Alexis ; Podpiera, Jiří ; Šmídková, Kateřina
This issue of the CNB Research Bulletin looks at advances in the area of financial stability. Financial stability issues have attracted the attention of central banks in the last 10 years, mainly due to the rapid development of financial systems, the emergence of new financial products and the increased integration of the financial system across borders. These issues are extremely important for the Czech financial sector as well. One of the most widely used analytical tools for evaluating the stability of the financial sector is stress testing. The first article – by Jaroslav Heřmánek, Petr Jakubík and Michal Hlaváček – describes progress in this area as compared to earlier versions of stress testing. Progress has been made primarily in the areas of modelling credit risk and linking the stress testing to the CNB’s official macroeconomic forecast. The second and third articles – by Adam Geršl and by Alexis Derviz and Jiří Podpiera – are devoted to the issue of cross border-contagion in the Czech Republic. This problem is of great importance for the Czech Republic due to the strong foreign ownership of the Czech banking sector and the increasing crossborder flows of capital. The article by Adam Geršl uses macroeconomic data from BIS and compares the threats of cross-border contagion from other CEECs using a common creditor index. The article by Alexis Derviz and Jiří Podpiera presents the results of a sophisticated microeconomic model of lending contagion within multinational banking groups together with an empirical model of lending contagion using individual bank data from Bankscope.
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Private finance and public policy
Schinasi, Garry J.
This paper articulates a logical foundation—drawn from disparate literatures—for understanding why safeguarding financial stability is an important economic policy objective. The paper also explains why private aspects of finance provide broader social economic benefits and have the characteristics of public goods. Unique aspects of finance are examined, as are the linkages between finance, money, and the real economy.
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Measuring excessive risk-taking in banking
Podpiera, Jiří ; Weill, Laurent
In this paper writers propose a new approach to the assessment of excessive risktaking by a banking sector. They use the portfolio approach to assess the optimal risk-return combination of a bank’s portfolio, based on data for 32 categories of loans. It provides a benchmark for the optimality of the bank’s portfolio.
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Monetary Conditions and Banks’ Behaviour in the Czech Republic
Geršl, Adam ; Jakubík, Petr ; Kowalczyk, Dorota ; Ongena, Steven ; Alcalde, José-Luis Peydró
This paper examines the impact of monetary conditions on the risk-taking behaviour of banks in the Czech Republic by analysing the comprehensive credit register of the Czech National Bank. Our duration analysis indicates that expansionary monetary conditions promote risk-taking among banks. At the same time, a lower interest rate during the life of a loan reduces its riskiness. While seeking to assess the association between banks’ appetite for risk and the short-term interest rate we answer a set of questions related to the difference between higher liquidity versus credit risk and the effect of the policy rate conditioned on bank and borrower characteristics.
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Inflation targeting after the crisis
Zůna, Zdeněk ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Vránková, Martina (referee)
The subject of the presented thesis is the relationship between monetary policy executed within inflation targeting, asset prices and financial stability in the broader sense in order to identify key problems of the current approach and draw some conclusions on how inflation targeting could possibly further evolve. Flexible inflation targeting remained the best available monetary policy framework, despite some revisions are apparently needed. It turned out, that changes in the financial sector have much greater impact on economic activity, than previously thought, and which the new approach will need to take into account.
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Default of households as the indicator of the financial stability
Michlová, Veronika ; Blahová, Naděžda (advisor) ; Brada, Jaroslav (referee)
This thesis deals with the default of households as one of the indicators of financial stability in the Czech Republic. Specifically, it studies increasing indeptedness of households and risks which endanger financial system. The aim is to analyze the main macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that affect households default and to determine their dependence on the non-performing loans. The conclusion summarizes the results of the thesis and suggests recommendations for central and commercial banks.
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Financial stability in terms of the Czech republic
Hustolesová, Lucie ; Čermáková, Klára (advisor) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
This bachelor thesis is supposed to evaluace financial stability in terms of the Czech Republic. To evaluace financial stability, I adopted three criterions from the economist Frederic S. Mishkin, which are in correspondence with financial stability's assumptions of the Czech national bank. These criterions are 1. the price stability, 2. the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy and 3. the bank sector supervision. I use tools of regression analysis as well as datas international comparison. I evaluate all three assumptions gradually and consecutively I draw a conclusion about financial stability of the czech economy based on the criterions' state of fulfilment.
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