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Uncertainty and House Prices: Empirical Evidence
Kos, Jiří ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
This thesis studies the relationship between house prices, economic fundamen- tals and uncertainty using panel data from 10 OECD member countries and time series data from the United States. Traditional techniques, such as coin- tegration testing, are used to find a possible long-run link between house prices and their determinants. Employing both single-equation ARDL and multi- equation VEC models, we find evidence of a possible long-run relationship between house prices and fundamentals in the panel data. The results from the time series analysis are inconclusive, mostly leaning towards no presence of cointegration. A measure of interest rate is a vital determinant in most mod- els., while income does not exhibit a long-run connection with house prices. Moreover, results indicate the importance of uncertainty in determining house price dynamics, exhibiting both negative and positive effects. JEL Classification C22, D80, R20, R21, R28, R30, Keywords house prices, uncertainty, cointegration, eco- nomic fundamentals, interest rate Title Uncertainty and House Prices: Empirical Evi- dence
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Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Russian Federation
Burešová, Kristina ; Kalabiška, Roman (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
The thesis investigates the determinants of apartment prices in Russia. We examined the relationships between quarterly apartment prices in the primary and secondary markets and a wide range of explanatory variables using a het- erogeneous panel of 73 regions from 2005 Q1 to 2019 Q4. Because the variables were co-integrated, the long-run relationships were estimated using a panel dynamic OLS. The short-run dynamic was captured by the error correction model. Wages and construction costs were found to be the core determinants of apartment prices in both the primary and secondary markets. Construc- tion costs were dominant in the primary market and wages in the secondary market. Unemployment, age structure, migration, exchange rate index, and existing apartment area per capita were identified as additional price determi- nants. Negative error correction terms implied that, following a market shock, apartment prices would revert to their long-run equilibria. The sample was then divided into subsets containing wealthy and poor regions to test for ro- bustness. The regression results suggested di erent dynamics in the wealthy regions, but otherwise confirmed the results' robustness. Finally, subperiods were subjected to indicative analysis. However, no significant changes were observed following the 2008...
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Soft Budget Constraint and Financial Crisis
Seifert, Jan ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
This work attempts to describe the role of soft budget constraint in the mature economies. The main attention is paid to the revival of the notion "soft budget constraint", because we assume that because of the current financial crisis it is important to focus on this problem. This work focuses mainly on the analysis of the U.S. financial sector, because this sector was hit by the financial crisis the most. Our effort is to find out whether the U.S. environment provides sufficient conditions for appearance of the soft budget constraint. We are especially interested in the assumption whether it is relevant to assume the presence of the soft budget constraint in the bank sector and in the consequences of its presence. Here we stress the importance of institutions and the current form of the bank sector. The next step is to analyze if under current conditions there is a positive probability that some U.S. firms do have soft budget constraint. The final part of this work covers the problems of soft budget constraint 5 and financial crisis. We analyzed a few possible solutions for the current financial crisis and compare its effects on soft budget constraint appearance in the U.S. economy.
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Stock markets contagion in the Western and Central European region during subprime crisis
Pechová, Lenka ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
The topic of financial contagion is growing in importance as the financial markets are integrating and becoming global. In my work I test contagion between stock markets in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), markets in Western Europe (Euro zone, France, Germany and UK) and U.S. I use two types of model to test the data from ongoing subprime crisis. The first one is parametrical model that uses the correlation coefficients obtained from VAR regression, based on paper by Forbes and Rigobon 2003. The second one is non parametrical model that uses the Kendall's tau approach to measure the comovements of the stock markets based on paper by Li (2009). In the work is also provided overview of theoretical and empirical literature that is focused on contagion and related topics.
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Efficiency of Regulation on Spanish Housing Market
Hejlová, Hana ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
Covering reciprocal and mutually reinforcing relations between business, housing and credit cycles, the thesis assesses the Spanish housing market in its wider circumstances. With use of several conceptual notes on demand for housing, dynamic path of the house prices in Spain may be explained based on the difference in how these structural components react on changes in financial and macroeconomic environment. As a result of controlling for match of demand and supply in both timely and spatial manner empirically, expectations were included to explain the subsequent volume of housing traded on the market and simple microeconomic decision making model taking into account taxes was derived to assess the role favourable incentives might have played on fuelling the house price cycle in Spain. Next, existence of the reciprocal relations suggested by the theory discussed was confirmed empirically only during the house price upturn and asymmetry in speed of downward adjustment was found in the opposite case, pointing out at the redistribution effect abrupt changes in house prices have in time. The results derived finally allowed to assess possibilities of better employment of anti cyclical regulatory tools towards eliminating mutually enforcing powers between the cycles and avoiding both financial and...
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Financial crisis as a result of risk management failure
Minařík, Štěpán ; Rippel, Milan (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
In this thesis, we examined time period from year 1993 to 2008 concerning real estate market in USA and coherent risk management decisions and tools used by US government and private mortgage institutions. After qualitative analysis of information resources (financial data, official documents and statements, economic researches and coments), we tested hypothesis of underestimation of real estate price bubble in years 2000 to 2007 by mortgage agencies and US stock market. The tool we used was linear regression (ordinary least squares method) to examine pricing of mortgage-backed securities by mortgage agencies and pricing of mortgage bank Fannie Mae stocks by investors.
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