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Essays on Data-driven, Non-parametric Modelling of Time-series
Hanus, Luboš ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Ellington, Michael (referee) ; Trimborn, Simon (referee)
This thesis consists of four contributions to the literature on data-driven and non-parametric modelling of time series. In the first paper, we study the synchronisation of business cycles and propose a multivariate co-movement measure based on time-frequency cohesion. We suggest that economic inte- gration may lead to increased co-movement of business cycles, which may reflect the benefits of convergence and coordination of economic policies. The second paper presents a new methodology for identifying persistence in macroeconomic variables. Using time-varying frequency response func- tions, we identify heterogeneous persistence effects in US macroeconomic variables. The third and fourth papers propose data-driven techniques for probabilistic forecasting of time series using deep learning. We introduce a multi-output neural network that selects the most appropriate distribution for the data. The distributional neural network is valuable for modelling data with non-linear, non-Gaussian and asymmetric structures. The third paper demonstrates the usefulness of the method by estimating information-rich macroeconomic fan charts and distributional forecasts of asset returns. In the last paper, we present the distributional neural network to obtain the proba- bility distribution of electricity price...
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Transformation of real estate sector in post-crisis period
Dvorská, Michaela ; Aigel, Petr (referee) ; Ivanička, Koloman (advisor)
Main subject of this diploma thesis is real estate sector, his basic principles, structure and factors of influence. Diploma thesis is analysing actual post - crisis trends in real estate sector, origins and causes of these trends. Special attention is concentrated into the specific development and surroundings of real estate sector in Czech republic. The analysis of the sector transformation intensity is used for searching of future potential of real estate sector, future trends and appropriate measures for healthy growth of real estate sector and long - term sustainability of real estate sector projects. The next one of the main baselines of the thesis is research of behavioral changes of real estate market demand because of cyclicality of real estate market. The research shows context between real estate cycle and business cycle and analyses typical behavioral reaction of demand in various phases of real estate sector cycle.
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Commercialization of residential buildings
Karásek, Jiří ; Vaňková, Lucie (referee) ; Hanák, Tomáš (advisor)
This thesis deals with the issue of commercialization of residential buildings. The theoretical part introduces the idea of the business cycle and its relation to economic crises. The theoretical part of this thesis also deals with the area of development and related financing and marketing development projects, which is applied subsequently to the practical part for the particular developer's residential project. In addition to the application of this theoretical knowledge is the analysis of a questionnaire survey among residential developers, which is the basis for analyzing the possibility of effective commercialization of residential development projects in the post-crisis period at different stages of the business cycle.
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Multi-country ABM perspective on business cycles and deleveraging crises
Mačejovský, Alexander ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Multi-country ABM perspective on business cycles and deleveraging crises Thesis Abstract Alexander Maèejovský August 2, 2022 We contribute to the existing literature on macroeconomic impacts of wage exibility by examining complexly interacting open economies which undergo economic crises characterized by debt-de ation. More generally, con- sideration of complexity of interactions and feedback eects between trading countries in our model also constitutes an interesting contribution to the literature on open economies, which usually utilizes small open economy mo- dels. We utilize multi-country agent-based model with decentralized markets which produces endogenous economic crises characterized by de ation and excessive levels of private debt. We examine scenarios with dierent inter- national trade settings and sizes of countries. We nd that under almost all scenarios, more stable wages have stabilizing macroeconomic eects as demand-driven recovery is faster and smoother than the one driven by incre- ased margins of rms and consequent debt deleveraging. Moreover, if coun- tries with dierent levels of wage exibilities trade with each other, recessions in the country with more exible wages become milder as international trade helps to increase sales of crisis-hit rms without initiating crisis of a similar...
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Asset prices and business cycles with liquidity shocks
Nezafat, M. ; Slavík, Ctirad
We develop a production based asset pricing model with financially constrained firms to explain the observed high equity premium and low risk-free rate volatility. Investment opportunities are scarce and firms face productivity and liquidity shocks. A negative liquidity shock forces firms to liquidate a fraction of their assets. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and find that it generates an equity premium and a level and volatility of risk-free rate comparable to those observed in the data. The model also fits key aspects of the behavior of aggregate quantities, in particular, the volatility of aggregate consumption and investment.
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An empirical approach to understanding Japan's secular stagnation through Austrian business cycle theory
Kessl, Daniel ; Ryska, Pavel (advisor) ; Moravcová, Hana (referee)
The present thesis estimates an econometric model based on the Austrian business cycle theory on data from the 'lost decades' in Japan - a period of economic stagnation from 1990 to 2010. The results show a negative significant effect both of the ratio of consumption to investment expenditure and the term spread on aggregate economic activity, a result consistent with the expectations and with other empirical studies done on the subject. Overall, the estimation confirms the hypothesis of Austrian business cycle theory that monetary shocks explain business cycles. JEL Classifications B25, C22, C52, E32, E43 Keywords Austrian business cycle theory, Japan, linear regression, time series models, business cycles Author's e-mail 80022787@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail pavel_ryska@volny.cz
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DSGE modeling of business cycle properties of Czech labor market
Sentivany, Daniel ; Maršál, Aleš (advisor) ; Rečka, Lukáš (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to develop a DSGE model that accounts for the key business cycle properties of the Czech labor market. We used standard New Keynesian framework for monetary policy analysis and incorporated an elaborated labor market setup with equi- librium wage derived via an alternating offer bargaining protocol originally proposed by Rubinstein (1982) and follow the work of Christiano, Eichenbaum and Trabandt (2013) in the following steps. Firstly, we calibrated the closed economy model according to values suited for the Czech economy and found that the model can not only account for higher volatility of the real wage and unemployment, but can also explain the contemporaneous rise of both wages and employment after an expansionary shock in the economy, so called Shimer puzzle (Shimer, 2005a). Secondly, we demonstrated that the alternating offer bar- gaining sharing rule outperforms the Nash sharing rule under assumption of using the hiring costs in our framework (more so while using search costs) and therefore is better suited for use in larger scale models. Thirdly, we concluded that after estimating the labor market parameters using the Czech data, our model disproved the relatively low values linked to the probabilities of unsuccessful bargaining and job destruction. JEL...
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Monetary Expansion and Economic Crises: An Austrian Perspective
Jára, Karel ; Průša, Jan (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The study of economic crises has been a major topic of interest in economics since at least the Great Depression and it has come to the fore once again after the latest crisis of late 2000s. It has also been one of the key themes for the Austrian school of economics in the form of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), which puts emphasis on monetary factors influencing capital structure of the economy. In this thesis we provide a comprehensive exposition of the distinctive points of Austrian approach to the study of markets, the ABCT's propositions and conclusions and also the most important criticism of the theory and replies to it. The theoretical part is accompanied by an empirical illustration on the economy of the United States of America in the period starting at the end of the latest crisis. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Czech-German Economic Ties: The Relevance of the Neofunctionalist Approach in the Contemporary Socio-Economic Context
Janíčko, Martin ; Kučerová, Irah (advisor) ; Zemplinerová, Alena (referee)
The thesis was most importantly concerned with the intensity of economic ties between the Czech Republic and Germany from 2004 enlargement, using neofunctionalist approach framework as a theoretical background. Two main hypotheses have been tested and the effects of financial and economic crisis have been also taken into account. We can affirm, based on the observed data and analysis made, that the intensity of economic ties has grown substantially since 2004 as well as the synchronization of the business cycles. Much of these effects could be attributed to the practical working of neofunctionalist premises. This is demonstrated by the fact the EU integration leads to a more significant interconnection in many spheres of economic activity that in turn affect the whole economic development and determination. Economic reciprocity has in general strengthened the political one, which is now being perceived on quite many political levels. However, more or less exogenous effects of the financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009 have led to a relatively visible slowdown in further integration and interconnection. From this reason, we can ask ourselves a pertinent question to what extent the integration is about to continue and what will be its impact on political relations of both countries in the...
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