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Comparison of methodological approaches of election polls used in the Czech Republic
Chábová, Kristýna ; Průšová, Petra (advisor) ; Buriánek, Jiří (referee)
This thesis deals with the issue of pre-election polling and presents an overview of methodological approaches used for their conducting. First, the methods of pre-election polls which are used in the US are presented as well as the recommendations of various professional associations. The core of this work examines the differences of methodological approaches used by Czech agencies (CVVM, Factum Invenio, Median and STEM). This paper also includes the comparison of pre-election polls and the actual election results in the 2010 elections. Finally, the possible causes of failure in the methodology used by the agencies are analyzed. Key words: comparison, pre-election polling
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Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage
Červinková, Monika ; Tuček, Milan (advisor) ; Hendl, Jan (referee)
The diploma thesis "Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage" discuss the methods of predicting the election results based on election expectations of individuals and shows how people form their expectations and how exact these expectations are. First short summary of existing methods of election results predictions and its limitations is presented - it also deals with pre-election surveys and its ambitions to predict the election results. The rest of the thesis focuses only on the prediction of the election results based on election expectations of individuals: prediction markets and aggregated estimations of respondents. Concept Wisdom of Crowds, from which both approaches originate, is presented together with concrete examples of application of the predictions based on opinions of prediction markets participants and respondents of the pre-election surveys. Results of the foreign studies confirm that the prediction markets predict the election results very well and with higher accuracy than the pre-election surveys. Current studies also positively evaluate the estimation of the election results done by respondents. Respondents are usually able to predict the election results, even several weeks before the elections. Last part of the thesis is based on my own quantitative...
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Interpretation of Pre-election Polls in The Czech Printed Dailies
Tučková, Kateřina ; Nečas, Vlastimil (advisor) ; Vochocová, Lenka (referee)
The diploma thesis Interpretation of Pre-election Polls in The Czech Printed Dailies studyies the ways in which media portrays data from election polls as part of thier news service. The thesis draws from theories of media effects, the research of which indicates a possible influence of media content on the formation of public opinion or even voting behaviour. For this reason, it maz be expected that the media present data in line with certain standards. However, in the Czech Republic, there is no code of conduct that would formulate such requirements. This leads to an ongoing struggle between the research agencies who supply such data and the media who present it to the public, where each party judges the content's quality by different measures. Some of the often criticised errors include misinterpretation of data and an insufficient explanation of the research's background. This paper uses quantitative content analysis to examine 154 articles from Czech printed journals across the three pre-election periods (2010, 2013, 2017) with the aim of determining in which form the results of pre- election polls are presented, and if all necessary data are added. The final analysis looks at the data as a whole as well as examining the trendlines during the studied time period. In conclusion, it evaluates...
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Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage
Červinková, Monika ; Tuček, Milan (advisor) ; Hendl, Jan (referee)
The diploma thesis "Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage" discuss the methods of predicting the election results based on election expectations of individuals and shows how people form their expectations and how exact these expectations are. First short summary of existing methods of election results predictions and its limitations is presented - it also deals with pre-election surveys and its ambitions to predict the election results. The rest of the thesis focuses only on the prediction of the election results based on election expectations of individuals: prediction markets and aggregated estimations of respondents. Concept Wisdom of Crowds, from which both approaches originate, is presented together with concrete examples of application of the predictions based on opinions of prediction markets participants and respondents of the pre-election surveys. Results of the foreign studies confirm that the prediction markets predict the election results very well and with higher accuracy than the pre-election surveys. Current studies also positively evaluate the estimation of the election results done by respondents. Respondents are usually able to predict the election results, even several weeks before the elections. Last part of the thesis is based on my own quantitative...
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Journalists and public opinion polls" media representation of public opinion in the case of the first direct presidental election in Czech republic
Burdová, Václava ; Škodová, Markéta (advisor) ; Dvořák, Tomáš (referee)
Diploma thesis Journalists and Public Opinion Polls: Media Representation of Public Opinion in the case of the First Direct Presidental Election in Czech Republic deals with an issue of media representation of public opinion polls and journalists' attitudes towards these polls. From the theoretical point of view this thesis focuses on definition of concepts such as public and public opinion, examination of how these concepts are approached within public opinion polls and investigation of possible influence of mediated public opinion polls on recipient of media messages. The main part of this thesis describes results of academic studies that address an issue of media coverage of pre-election polls. Analytic part is divided into two parts. The first part deals with media content analysis, the second one deals with journalists' attitudes towards polls. We can conclude that interviewed journalists are rather skeptical about public opinion polls while this scepticism is not followed by critical interpretation of pre-election poll results. This conclusion rises a question why journalists' sceptical attitude doesn't correspond with media coverage of polls that was found rather uncritical. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Presidential pre-election polling: for the first time in the Czech Republic
Jechová, Klára ; Vinopal, Jiří (advisor) ; Buriánek, Jiří (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with examination of research activities of selected research organizations regarding the historically first direct elections of the president of the Czech Republic. This is done with the use of pre-election surveys realized in connection with presidential elections in the United States of America. The thesis ponders whether the phenomenon of direct elections will be positively accepted not only by Czech Citizen but also by local research organizations. The aim of the presented diploma thesis is the evaluation of Czech presidential surveys and their main methods through the comparison with models from the United States of America. The subsidiary goal is the investigation of prevailing traditions in the Czech Republic and the lack of resources which cause resistance against potential research development in the Czech Republic. At last but not least the thesis evaluates how presidential polls might influence the public opinion. This thesis is divided into five chapters. The first one investigates the election system and polls in the Czech Republic. Next chapter deals with the election system and polls in the United States of America. Chapter three focuses on the comparison of research approaches in the Czech Republic and the United States of America. The fourth chapter presents the...
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Comparison of methodological approaches of election polls used in the Czech Republic
Chábová, Kristýna ; Průšová, Petra (advisor) ; Buriánek, Jiří (referee)
This thesis deals with the issue of pre-election polling and presents an overview of methodological approaches used for their conducting. First, the methods of pre-election polls which are used in the US are presented as well as the recommendations of various professional associations. The core of this work examines the differences of methodological approaches used by Czech agencies (CVVM, Factum Invenio, Median and STEM). This paper also includes the comparison of pre-election polls and the actual election results in the 2010 elections. Finally, the possible causes of failure in the methodology used by the agencies are analyzed. Key words: comparison, pre-election polling
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Remarks to problem of correct interpretation of party preferences
Lebeda, Tomáš
The article points to the problematic interpretation of electoral polls provided by media, using some examples from Czech press. Journalists are not able to differentiate within various types of polls and their interpretations of poll outcomes are sometimes incorrect. In some cases therefore the psychological effect of legal threshold coupled with media campaigning based on the misinterpretations of preferences can influence voters decisions.
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