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Risk assessment and prediction of natural fires in the immediate vicinity\nsurface sources of drinking water.
Trnka, Miroslav ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Čermák, P. ; Balek, Jan ; Novotný, Jan ; Homolová, Lucie ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Benáček, Patrik ; Fischer, Milan ; Sedlák, Pavel ; Janouš, Dalibor ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Marek, Michal V. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F. ; Knozová, G. ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Mašková, R. ; Cienciala, E. ; Vizina, A. ; Nesládková, M. ; Melišová, E. ; Hanel, M.
The methodology formulates a procedure for assessing the risks of the occurrence and spread of natural fires in the immediate vicinity of surface sources of drinking water. The methodology\nproposes methods for estimating the consequences of natural fires on surface water quality, forecasting the change in the risk of fires due to climate change and the procedure for determining the risk of secondary pollution of reservoirs due to changes in run off after a natural fire. On this basis, the methodology proposes and diversifies preventíve and operational measures.The measures were designed in connection to modeling results for the Hadce pilot síte near the Švihov reservoir and the experience with the adverse effects of extensive deforestation on the water quality in the Vranov and Vír reservoirs.
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System of natural fire risk indicators (verification of various risk assessment procedures occurrence of natural fires) including instructions for the use of the integrated forecast system
Trnka, Miroslav ; Čermák, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Zemek, František ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Jurečka, František ; Janouš, Dalibor ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Marek, Michal V. ; Cienciala, Emil ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Tumajer, J. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F.
The presented methodology represents an improvement of the currently used system of wildfire monitoring and forecast. Based on extensive testing, it defines two fire weather indices. The method shows how the combination of both indices can lead to robust fire risk estimates. Both indices were uset to generate a forecast of fire weather, but also to quantify th erelationship between the frequency of favorable conditions for the occurrence of natural fires and their observed numbers, in several time steps (from 1 day to the entire season) The methodology has been implemented within the www. firerisk.cz portal, where it serves as a tool for operational fire risk forecasting. The text of the methodology therefore contains instructions for using the menthodology therefore contains instructions for using the firerick.cz portal. Great attention is paid in the methodology to the aspect of climate change and estimating the impact of this phenomenon on the frequency of wildfires in the Czech republic.
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System for monitoring and forecast of impacts of agricultural drought
Trnka, Miroslav ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Chuchma, F. ; Možný, M. ; Bartošová, Lenka ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Meitner, Jan ; Bláhová, M. ; Fiala, R. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The methodology describes how to predict soil moisture and drought intensity, and at the same time addresses reliability of the predictions and how these can be used. The ability to predict soil moisture values over a period of up to 9 days is presented through using ensemble of models for numerical weather forecasts. This method brings also new opportunities to mitigate impacts during drought events by farmers using such forecasting tools. With regard to the relatively high predictability of soil moisture and drought intensity, the methodology introduces the basic procedures and provides necessary information for the users. In this methodology, the results of 2017 drought event are presented as an example. The drought forecasting system for the Czech Republic is fully functional and is and will be available through www.intersucho.cz.
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Physiological equivalent temperature as an indicator of the UHI effect with the city of Prague as an example
Zahradníček, Pavel ; Žák, M. ; Skalák, Petr
Description of an Urban Heat Island (UHI) using the difference in air temperature is one of the world's most studied characteristics. If, however, one wants to express how the temperature is perceived by humans, one must consider the overall effect of air temperature, wind speed, air humidity and radiation flows, which is expressed using temperature bioclimatological indexes. One of them is the socalled physiological equivalent temperature (PET), which is used for quantification of the overall effect of meteorological parameters combined with human energetic balance and which is perceived by humans. The RayMan (MATZARAKIS et al. 2007, 2010) microscale models in the city of Prague were used to simulate biometeorological conditions describing the effect on humans using PET.
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Quality control and homogeneity testing of daily time series of eca ECA&D
Zahradníček, Pavel ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Skalák, Petr
For any meaningful climate analysis, it is necessary for analysed time series to be homogeneous, which means that their variations are caused solely by variations in weather and climate (Conrad and Pollak 1950). Th us, prior to any analysis, the need to homogenize data and check their quality arises. Unfortunately, most of the climatological series that span over decades, to centuries, contain inhomogeneities caused by station relocations, exchange of observers, changes in the vicinity of the stations (e.g. urbanization), changes in instruments, observing practices (e.g. diff erent formulas for calculating daily means, diff erent observation times), etc. In this work we focused on testing the quality and homogeneity of daily data produced by ECA&D. Th is is a free available dataset of daily meteorological elements from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (http://eca.knmi.nl/). Th is database was used to create a regular grid of EOBS points, which are oft en used to validate climate models.
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Comparison of corrected and uncorrected model simulations in the perspective of climate change in the area of the Czech Republic
Štěpánek, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr
In recent years, simulations from various regional climate models became available for the area of the Czech Republic, thanks to several national and international projects (e.g. the EC FP6 projects CECILIA, ENSEMBLES or the national project VaV SP/1a6/108/07). Th e simulations of all the models were performed according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario with various spatial resolutions. Since models suff er from biases, the model outputs were statistically corrected using the quantile approach of M. Déqué. Aft er correction, the RCM outputs were statistically processed and analyzed, especially for air temperature and precipitation, but also for other elements (like relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration). In this study, the diff erences between models outputs, as well as the corrected and uncorrected results, are presented.
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Temporal Evolution of Dry and Wet Conditions in the Czech Republic During the Growing Season
Potop, V. ; Boroneant, C. ; Možný, Martin ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Skalák, Petr
In the present study, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was adopted to assess temporal evolution of wet and dry months during growing season (April to September) in the Czech Republic based on a dense network of 184 climatological stations for the period 1961–2010. The SPEI were calculated with various lags, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months because the drought at these time scales is relevant for agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic impact, respectively. To assess the temporal evolution of dry and wet conditions during the growing season, first, the monthly time series of the SPEI for the months April to September were averaged at each station for each SPEI accumulation period (1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months, respectively). Then, these SPEI time series were averaged over all 184 stations to get a time series of drought index at country level. The temporal evolution of the SPEI with one month lag represents the year by year moisture characteristic of the current growing season. In this respect, at country level, during the second half of the 20th century and the first decade of 21st century, the hierarchy of the driest years during the growing season was 2003, followed by 1992, 2000, 1983, 1982, 1976, 2009 and 1999. On the other hand, the wettest years during the growing seasons were 1965, 2010, 1977, 1996, 1966, 2001, 1972, 1980 and 1995.
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Climate Change in the Area of the Czech Republic according to Various Model Simulations
Štěpánek, Petr ; Skalák, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Zahradníček, Pavel
In recent years, simulations from various regional climate models became available for the area of the Czech Republic, thank to several national or international projects (e.g. the EC FP6 projects CECILIA, ENSEMBLES or VaV). The simulations of the all models were performed according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario with various spatial resolutions. Since models suffer from biases, the model outputs were statistically corrected using the quantile approach of M. Déqué. After correction, RCM outputs were statistically processed and analyzed. In this paper, the differences between models outputs, as well as corrected and uncorrected results, are presented.
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