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Examining the Internet Research Agency's Exploitation of Cognitive Biases Through its Disinformation Campaign Targeted at the US 2016 Presidential Election
Cannon, Casey ; Tesař, Jakub (vedoucí práce) ; Hardman, Helen (oponent) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent)
Numerous studies have been dedicated to the Kremlin-affiliated Internet Research Agency's (IRA) online disinformation effort dedicated at the US 2016 Presidential election. Research has confirmed that the effort involved a coordinated effort to influence the voting behaviour and sow discord amongst US citizens across social media networks. This paper differed from previous research in that it analysed the literature to evaluate if the IRA employed tactics designed to exploit specific cognitive processes including the vividness bias, availability heuristic, and confirmation bias. This research performs unique analysis for each bias by examining qualitatively how confirmation bias may have been exploited based on the IRA's network infiltration, performing quantitative analysis of the IRA tweet volume relative to a control dataset of humans and automated bot accounts during the pre-election period, and the vividness bias by employing a Sentiment Analysis to assess positive and negative sentiment in IRA tweets. Each bias is then evaluated in the context of Russian reflexive control doctrine and the greater IRA strategy. This paper finds that the IRA employed a savvy understanding of how cognition and social media network infrastructure influenced US users' behaviour and leveraged that knowledge to...
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Pakistani Foreign Fighters in Afghanistan, Kashmir and Syria: A Comparative Analysis of Drivers of Radicalization
Rani, Mehwish ; Bureš, Oldřich (vedoucí práce) ; Anceschi, Luca (oponent) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent)
This study compares the drivers of radicalization of Pakistani foreign fighters in Afghanistan, Kashmir and Syria. It tries to understand what unique drivers attract Pakistani foreign fighters to each of these conflict zones. It also examines the degree to which the existing literature on radicalization in general and foreign fighters in particular, mainly produced in a western context, can be used to understand the Pakistani foreign fighters. The study is based on twenty- two semi-structured interviews conducted with experts from police counter terrorism departments, journalists, researchers, senior officials from National Counter Terrorism Authority, and members of religious groups in Pakistan, which were then analysed to determine the relative significance of different drivers for Pakistani fighters travelling to Kashmir, Afghanistan, and Syria. The results show that many drivers that feature prominently in the existing radicalization literature, such as ideology, propaganda, and recruitment networks, are useful for explaining what draws Pakistani foreign fighters to particular conflicts. At the same time, however, the results of my analysis also identified several drivers that have not been highlighted in the Western literature on Muslim radicalization thus far, including geographical proximity...
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Black Swans in the Black Sea: Scenarios for the Future of NATO-Russia Relations in the Black Sea Region.
Wagner, Greta ; Kazharski, Aliaksei (vedoucí práce) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent) ; Heuser, Beatrice (oponent)
This research paper demonstrates the value of scenario analysis for the field of Security Studies, by developing an easy-to-replicate framework for "Intuitive Logics" scenario building and applying it to the case of NATO-Russia relations in the Black Sea region. While scenarios are frequently used as strategic management and planning tools in the corporate and public sector, they represent a relatively new addition to the methodological toolkit of Security Studies. Based on the example of the conflict between NATO and Russia in the Black Sea region, this paper shows how scenario analysis can foster a structured and multifaceted understanding of conflict constellations. To this end, this paper compiles a list of "drivers of change" and external forces that have the potential to impact NATO-Russia relations in the next ten to fifteen years, identifies the "critical uncertainties," and develops four different scenario narratives.
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Timely Expansion of the Security-Liberty Balance: Norm Diffusion and Convergence between the EU and UN in Counterterrorism Sanctions Regimes and the Impact of Kadi
Turcsan, Virag Imola ; Bureš, Oldřich (vedoucí práce) ; Aliyev, Huseyn (oponent) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent)
[Dissertation Title: Timely Expansion of the Security-Liberty Balance: Norm Diffusion and Convergence between the EU and UN in Counterterrorism Sanctions Regimes and the Impact of Kadi] [Submission Date: July 2020] [Glasgow Student Number: 2095315] [Dublin City Student Number: 18114741] [Charles Student Number: 87084963] [Student Name: Virag Imola Turcsan] Presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence, and Strategic Studies Word Count: 21990 Supervisor: Professor Oldrich Bures Date of Submission: 30.07.2020. Abstract The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks have significantly impacted the international community and its approach to counterterrorism. By prioritising security norms over those of human rights, the security-liberty balance was tipped towards security in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, resulting in long- term negative consequences for human rights and civil liberties. The United Nations and its Security Council (UNSC) was no exception to this trend and had enacted far-reaching measures within its targeted counterterrorism sanctions regimes that limited human rights guaranteed by international laws, conventions, and treaties. This thesis looks at the evolution of the UNSC targeted counterterrorism sanctions regimes from 1999...
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Factors Limiting the Implementation of the Cognitive Interview into the Czech Police Practice
Vinterova, Kateřina ; Tesař, Jakub (vedoucí práce) ; Butler, Eamonn (oponent) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent)
This study aimed to evaluate what may be limiting the implementation of the cognitive interview (CI) into the police practice in the Czech Republic. While there is nearly 30 years' worth of laboratory research on the CI and its effectiveness, there is not much evidence of the CI being implemented into the police practice, for which it was originally intended. The current study, therefore, aimed to define and evaluate factors, which may be limiting the implementation of the CI into the police practice, with a focus on the Czech Republic. The study was conducted with 34 Czech CPIS officers, and the data for this study was collected through online questionnaires. The findings showed that the most resistance to the implementation of the CI would be on the organisation (the police) level, as there did not seem to be enough opportunities for officers to learn new interviewing techniques. Surprisingly, limitations associated with the method itself, such as the long duration of the CI or the need for cooperative witnesses, were not found to be significant in this study. Limitations of this study and its implications for further research into human security are also discussed. Keywords: police practice, witness interview, cognitive interview, Czech police, human security
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The Geostrategic Stakes of Self-Determination: A Comparative Study of Western Sahara and the Iraqi Kurdistan
Lahdifi, Sahar ; von Bulow, Mathilde (vedoucí práce) ; Hynek, Nikola (oponent) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent)
ABSRACT The issue of secessionism, as one constituent of the right to self-determination, is complex, and somehow paradoxical. On the one hand, it seems to pattern the process of decolonisation that happened in the 20th Century, while paradoxically emerging from it. On the other, separatist groups legitimate their battles on the ground of past sovereignty as understood in their own cultural reality. Yet, they do not seek a structural change of the current international legal frame, but rather, are fighting for recognition of their independence within that existing structure. Thus, the very Western-centred concept of territorial nation-state acts simultaneously as an obstacle to and a motive for secessionist claims. This triggers a sort of vicious cycle, where independence would be rarely granted, as it risks disturbing the international status quo, while the structure in which the status quo is built, highly inspires secessionist groups. Furthermore, the importance to maintain the status quo reveals the very strategic essence of secessionist claims, contributing to a fundamental lack of practical tools regarding the settlement of secessionist claims. These numerous paradoxes are illustrated in this dissertation with a comparative study between Western Sahara and the Iraqi Kurdistan: more than having a...
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How can Factors Underlying Human Preferences Lead to Methods of Formal Characterizations towards Developing Safe Artificial General Intelligence?
Al-Nusair, Rana Ghalib ; Špelda, Petr (vedoucí práce) ; Butler, Eamonn (oponent) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent)
This research aims to investigate the Artificial Intelligence (AI) value alignment problem, which refers to the challenge in developing a safe and reliable AI that can achieve our goals and adhere to our values as we intend it to do. A misaligned AI, especially one which transcends all domains of cognitive abilities and has acquired vast computational powers, will be nearly impossible to manage and it will threaten our security. Research addressing this problem is now focused on understanding how to develop AI that can reliably infer our values from our preferences. Thus, preferences are the primary conceptual unit of analysis to the AI value alignment problem. This paper investigates our preferences and seeks to shed light on the issue of obtaining a formal truth that is fundamentally constitutive of our preferences, for the aim of using said formal truth to create a value aligned AI. To do this, this paper gathers data from economics, biological evolution, and neurocognitive studies to bridge the current gaps on the conceptual problem of preferences. The paper concludes with presenting a new kind of security dilemma which stems from the notion of combining a general theoretical framework that fully captures our preferences with the crucial elementof uncertainty inAI, effectively showcasing how...
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Countering Islamist Radicalisation: A Comparative Study of Bulgaria and France's Practices, Experiences and Challenges
Nocheva, Nikolena Hristova ; Anceschi, Luca (vedoucí práce) ; Hynek, Nikola (oponent) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent)
This study aims to contribute to Islamist radicalisation and terrorism research in the EU context. It compares and assesses the counter-radicalisation policies that Bulgaria and France adopt. In addition, it seeks to evaluate whether effective practices can be incorporated and adopted in the respective countries. This study grounds its theoretical criticism within Lindekilde's theoretical framework for policy effectiveness. To analyse and better comprehend the main ingredients in the countries' counter-radicalisation model, this study relies on a hermeneutic methodology. The study uses Lindekilde's four evaluative criteria (time, policy design & logic, reception and implementation) to determine whether the existing counter radicalisation policies are well suited to their national contexts. The findings from this study indicate that Bulgaria and France share similar struggles with the implementation of their proposed measures. The study argues that both countries could improve their counter-radicalisation practices provided they introduce measures from a soft character. More precisely, the findings suggest that effective counter radicalisation policies are those which are tailored to the population's local needs and those which benefit from engaging with the richness of their societies. Key words:...
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Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab resiliency and incumbent governments' ineffectiveness: Rethinking counterinsurgency against Salafist Islam-inspired insurgencies through a wicked problem analytical approach
Edet, Isidore Henry ; Aslan, Emil (vedoucí práce) ; Biagini, Erika (oponent)
This study explores the relationship between Jihadist insurgency typified by Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab conflicts and wicked problems. Although a large number of research has been carried out on insurgency and counterinsurgency (COIN), and the concept of the wicked problem has been applied to many studies in varying academic disciplines, there is no research on Salafism-inspired insurgency and the COIN efforts to resolve it using the concept of wicked problem. The study adopted a qualitative research approach using a document analysis strategy to provide critical analysis of the ''how'' and ''why'' the two insurgencies are wicked problems, the failures of the incumbent states to defeat them, and a proposal of a wicked problem governance framework for managing the conflicts. The study concluded that the wicked problem concept has an explanatory utility that can illuminate the character of jihadist insurgencies and proposed taming as a governance solution to the insurgencies.
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