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Monetary Policy and House Prices in the US: Evidence from Time-Varying VAR Model
Brunová, Kristýna ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis examines the effects of monetary policy shocks on the housing market. To this end, TVP-VAR model with dynamic dimension selection and stochastic volatility is estimated using monthly data for the United States over the period 1999-2017. Moreover, the model features estimating the optimal value of the Bayesian shrinkage coefficient in a time-varying manner. Since the sample covers the Zero Lower Bound period, Wu-Xia shadow rate is employed to measure the stance of monetary policy. To assess the link between housing variables and monetary policy, impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions are provided. However, due to the time-varying nature of the model, they are estimated only for selected time periods that correspond both to the events that most likely influenced the path of macroeconomic and financial variables and to periods of low economic uncertainty. The main results are threefold. First, the model suggests that monetary policy shocks can contribute to developments in house prices. Second, the stimulative monetary policy positively affects residential investment and negatively affects mortgage rates, however, the effects are not significant due to the large confidence bands of the impulse responses. Third, higher values of the shrinkage hyperparameter are crucial for...
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Mortgage crisis
Archalous, Martin ; Pokorný, Jan (advisor) ; Bažantová, Ilona (referee)
The thesis deals with the US mortgage crisis of 2008. The mortgage crisis, the following financial crisis and the debt crisis have affected billions of people around the world. It has been widely covered in literature. This thesis, however, takes a different approach. It analyses the crisis form the point of view of law and economics, looking for overlaps between those disciplines. The author does not accept the divide between law and economics. It is necessary to consider both views in order to understand the crisis. This work does not seek causes of the crisis primarily in the banks and the lack of regulation, as is common view. Rather, this thesis looks for systemic failures and root causes. It focuses on monetary policy (especially the US Fed), the regulatory institutions, bank management and the role of credit rating agencies and exotic financial instruments. In the first part of the work, the author looks at possible causes in different areas: Monetary policy and global trade imbalances, regulation of the mortgage market and government support of affordable housing, banks and their management (corporate governance), regulation and deregulation of the banking sector (with emphasis on the functioning of regulatory institutions, their legal basis and historical context), so-called securitization and...
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Position of the Federal Constitutional Court to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT program).
Trojanová, Justina ; Mlsna, Petr (advisor) ; Handl, Vladimír (referee)
This thesis titled The position of the Federal Constitutional Court to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT program) is dealing with the program of direct monetary transactions (OMT) and its compliance with EU primary law. It is the first time in history, when the German constitutional court submitted a question to the Court of Justice of the EU. The program was announced in 2012 as a program of unlimited purchases of government bonds. It has not been applied yet, but its very existence has helped to calm European markets and bond yields of states which are faced with financial problems. Large number of German politicians and economists stepped up against the program and shared the view that the program essentially requires that German taxpayers pay bills for other eurozone countries. It was also emphasized that this program clearly exceeds the mandate of the European Central Bank of maintaining price stability. This work includes logically arranged chapters, which include the creation of the euro zone, Greek debt crisis, subsequent rescue programs and solitude OMT program and judicial proceedings in relation to this program. The final section focuses first on the judgment of the European Court of Justice, which sets out important conditions for the possible application of the program in the...
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Central Bank Transparency and Price Stability
Katuščáková, Dominika ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Luňáčková, Petra (referee)
The thesis investigates the central bank transparency employing the Monetary Policy Transparency Index. The main objective is to investigate recent trends in the central bank transparency. First, the level of monetary policy transparency is investigated from various aspects, as, for instance, time or geographical aspect. In the next part, all the data are averaged and linear regression analysis is carried out to detect the determinants of the monetary policy which explain the variation among the individual central banks. Finally, panel regressions are conducted to explore the time variation in the monetary policy transparency in the countries. Throughout the text, all the results are compared with the results presented in the paper by Dincer & Eichengreen (2009). The data show that the overall time trend in the level of monetary transparency is increasing. It can be concluded that inflation targeters are generally more transparent than countries with other frameworks. The same applies to advanced countries and emerging and developing countries. The de facto exchange rate regime and all political variables used significantly determine the variation in the monetary policy transparency comparing individual countries. GDP per capita and financial depth significantly influence the time variation in the...
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The Central Bank, its position and activities
Veselý, Jan ; Kotáb, Petr (advisor) ; Kohajda, Michael (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to describe the functioning of the central bank, the historical development of the Czech National Bank, its organizational structure and internal decision-making mechanisms, activities carried out, its purpose, function and objectives and to incorporate it in the legal system of the Czech Republic. This thesis addresses the involvement of the Czech National Bank for the European System of Central Banks, the functioning of the European Central Bank and the aforementioned European System of Central Banks. Part of the work is devoted to the process of adopting the euro and the relation between Czech Republic this currency. The thesis gives a comprehensive view of the functioning of the Czech National Bank. Thesis is divided into several chapters, and each chapter neatly summarized some part of the whole and to ensure easy orientation at work. The work is drawn from literature, case law and legislation. The work includes the connection of the scientific literature and the author's views. There is a widely used quotes personalities and capabilities in their field and provisions of the legislation, so that the work was valuable informative.
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High Frequency Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Sweden
Němčík, Erik ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
Current effectiveness and functioning of one of the key instruments of monetary policy, the interest rate, has been debated around the world with an increasing intensity. Sweden, specifically, characterized by a recent low inflation period coupled with an experimental approach to monetary policy (utilizing both negative interest rates and quantitative easing) presents a peculiar case of interest. This thesis presents new evidence on the monetary policy transmission in Sweden during the low inflation period. To convey this, it utilizes the Proxy-SVAR method, where data from financial markets are used to identify monetary policy shocks and their propagation through the financial and macroeconomic variables. In particular, STINA-swaps are used as an instrumental variable in our main model of interest. The results strongly suggest dampened effectiveness of the repo rate, the Riksbank's main interest rate tool, in achieving the inflation target over the past decades. Price puzzle is present in all model variations applied and hence hints at the inability of the Swedish central bank to effectively control inflation via interest rate decisions. It is important to state that the results are robust to multiple econometric specifications, different inflation setups or estimation methods. Furthermore, the...
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Essays on Monetary Policy
Žáček, Jan ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee) ; Tillmann, Peter (referee) ; Bulíř, Aleš (referee)
CHARLES UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Institute of Economic Studies Essays on monetary policy Abstract Author: Mgr. Jan Žáček Advisor: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub, Ph.D. Academic year: 2020/2021 Abstract The dissertation thesis consists of three research papers in the field of mone- tary policy. All three papers connect the same topic - monetary policy rules. The first two papers focus on monetary policy rules augmented with finan- cial variables from a theoretical point of view, while the third paper provides international empirical evidence on the monetary policy conduct taking into account financial cycle developments. In the first paper I employ a small-open economy dynamic stochastic gen- eral equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine whether the central bank's direct reaction to asset prices or credit-to-GDP ratio brings macroeconomic benefits in terms of lower volatility of inflation and output. I find that direct reaction to asset prices can be beneficial for a central bank; however, the result holds only for some domestic shocks. When facing shocks originating abroad, the usefulness of the augmented monetary policy rule deteriorates. Overall, the performance of the rule augmented with asset prices is shock-dependent, and therefore, any strict rule-like behaviour for a central bank operating within a...
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Assessment of the Efficiency of QE in Selected Countries - A TVP-VAR Approach
Bandžak, Denis ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
This thesis applies time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility to assess the effectiveness of quantitative easing in time for the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve System between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. We find pronounced and statistically significant response of GDP and level of implied stock market volatility to a QE shock whereas the response of CPI is feeble and statistically insignificant. We argue that this does not necessarily imply that there is no effect of QE on CPI but rather that our model was not able to detect it. We believe that this may be due to inflation expectations channel which our model did not account for. This can be reassessed with a TVP-FAVAR model which is more suitable for such an analysis as it can encompass a larger set of variables. Moreover, apart from the US, we report increasing effectiveness of QE in time. This is opposed by the researchers who believe that QE has rather decreasing effectiveness in time because it is more efficient during economic distress and then its efficiency tends to decrease during normal times. We explain this deviation by citing other unconventional monetary tools such as credit easing, forward guidance or negative...
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A Macroeconomic Forecasting Model of the fixed exchange rate regime for the oil-rich Kazakh economy
Hlédik, Tibor ; Musil, Karel ; Ryšánek, Jakub ; Tonner, Jaromír
This paper presents a semi-structural quarterly projection open-economy model for analyzing monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic developments in Kazakhstan during the period of the fixed exchange rate regime. The model captures key stylized facts of the Kazakh economy, especially the important role of oil prices in influencing the economic cycle in Kazakhstan. The application of the model to observed data provides a reasonable interpretation of Kazakh economic history, including the global crisis, through to late 2015, when the National Bank of Kazakhstan introduced a managed float. The dynamic properties of the model are analyzed using impulse response functions for selected country-specific shocks. The model’s shock decomposition and in-sample forecasting properties presented in the paper suggest that the model was an applicable tool for monetary policy analysis and practical forecasting at the National Bank of Kazakhstan. In a general sense, the model can be considered an example of a quarterly projection model for oil-rich countries with a fixed exchange rate.
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