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Power markets and the EU ETS: How volatility propagates across Central Europe?
Jurka, Vojtěch ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
The thesis deals with connectedness in the uncertainty of the carbon and power markets in Central Europe. While the drivers of power price were extensively documented in the literature, we investigate how uncertainty propagates between the German power market and its production factors using a recently developed framework of connectedness measurement. The connections in uncertainty on markets are insightful for the decision of the agents that require a premium for undertaking risk. The empirical results suggest that connectedness in uncertainty significantly varies over the studied period. The interdependence of power with coal decreases while the spillovers between gas and power rise on importance reflecting the changes in generation mix of Germany. For most of the period, the volatility of carbon and power markets is highly correlated. However, the share of volatility transmission spikes several times during the period of 2016-2019. In reaction to the reform of the EU Emission Trading Scheme, the uncertainty about emission allowance prices propagates to the German power market, increasing the uncertainty about power prices on the long horizon.
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Vliv ceny ropy na hodnotu akcií společností těžících ropu
Pavlata, Josef
This diploma thesis is focused on evaluation of impact of oil price changes on share values of oil companies. The main goal was to clarify whether stocks of oil companies with state share react to oil price movements differently than stocks of oil companies without state share. This hypothesis was verified by analysis of time series of oil price (WTI) and share values of seven oil companies (BP, ExxonMobil, Lukoil, PetroChina, Statoil, Petrobras). One-day data from 2002-2016 period were used. Investment recommendation based on econometric methods (correlation analysis, regression analysis, VAR model, Granger causality) and financial methods (volatility, profitability) was drawn up in this study. The hypothesis of state influence was confirmed.
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Vztah mezi vývojem cen významných komodit a vývojem akciových trhů
Prejdová, Jana
Diploma thesis studies the relationship between selected commodities and stock indexes. In the theoretical part of the thesis, there are described important stock indexes, their sector structure and the countries represented in each index. There is a detailed description of the analysed commodities, which are gold, crude oil and cocoa. The theoretical part focuses also on the historical development of prices of these commodities, important events with an impact on the development of prices, and factors influencing prices of commodities. There is also characterised the supply and demand for these commodities. Practical part of the thesis analyses the correlation between stock indexes and commodities and furthermore tests the relationship between stock markets and commodities with the statistical method of VAR model and Granger causality.
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Investice do zlata a diamantů
Barnišin, Ľubomír
Content of this bachelor thesis deals with gold and diamonds and its various forms of investments. Bachelor thesis contains an analysis of past and present evolution of commodity price and creating possible evolution of the price in future. Re-comendations for potential investors are supposed to become the main prupose of the thesis. In the first section, gold and diamonds are described in general and as an investing instrument as well. It contains factors that can infuence their price and options of investing in gold and diamonds. The second part consists of describing evolution of gold and diamond price.
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Futures Trading of Commodities as a Retail Trader
Burša, Petr ; Hrabec, Vojtěch (referee) ; Rejnuš, Oldřich (advisor)
The goal of this thesis “Futures trading of commodities as a retail trader” is creation of investment suggestion, based on analysis of possibilities, markets and factors influencing the price. In the first part are defined basic terms and information for better orientation on the futures commodity market. In the next part are analysis of the major commodity markets, groups of commodities and detailed analysis of interest commodities – gold and silver. The last third part of the thesis engage in creation of strategy for trading of commodity futures on gold and silver, which is the basic element for the final investment suggestion.
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Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices
Kubaštová, Magdaléna ; Fičura, Milan (advisor) ; Galuška, Jiří (referee)
This master thesis, Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices deals with macroeconomic variables that drive the price of gold. This paper is divided into three chapters: Possible investment forms in gold, Fundamental analysis of commodities, and lastly Analysis of impact of strong economies and their influence on gold prices. In the first chapter, emphasis is put on the Efficient Market Theory that plays an important role in success or failure of investment strategies such as technical and fundamental analysis. The second chapter illustrates the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and how it is used as a tool to predict the movement of gold prices. This chapter also discusses other large drivers effecting gold prices such as financial and geopolitical stability, inflation, interest rates, Central Banking operations, the value of the US dollar, and other influences. The final chapter analyzes the impact of announced fundamental news in the United States, China, and Europe on the price of gold. The empirical part of this paper analysis the impact of announced fundamental news in United States, China and Europe on gold prices. With the use of the linear regression method, we can test whether the macroeconomic variables significantly influence the return on gold investments immediately after their announcement, or over long periods of time. If this new public data was calculated into gold prices directly, investors would not be able to achieve additional returns by using fundamental analysis. The major findings are summed up at the end of the last chapter.
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Strategies for Spread Trading using Futures Contracts
Gottlieb, Oskar ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
The focus of this thesis are futures spreads, more specifically trading strategies based on two approaches - cointegration tested on inter-commodity spreads and seasonality observed amongst calendar spreads. Commodity pairs which we identify to be cointegrated are tested for four mean reversion strategies, three of them being based on fair value approach, the fourth on the relative value approach. Similarly calendar spreads exhibiting seasonality are optimized for naive buy and hold trading strategies. Both approaches are tested on in-sample and out-of-sample data. Amongst seasonal strategies we have not found a pattern yielding sufficiently profitable signals in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods. Inter-commodity spreads on the other returned profitable strategies on cointegrated spreads which were also similar in physical nature. The exception to that rule were spreads known well in the industry, which failed to deliver positive results in the out-of-sample period.
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Growing Role of Switzerland in Commodity Trade
Sláma, Ondřej ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Fišerová, Tereza (referee)
Growing Role of Switzerland in Commodity Trade Ondřej Sláma Abstract This thesis assesses causes and consequences of Switzerland becoming the world's leading commodity hub. In both the replication and the extension of existing esti- mates, I find support for the hypothesis that Switzerland declares unusually higher (re-)export prices for commodities which are also on average under-priced as devel- oping country exports to Switzerland. The transfer pricing manipulation process implies a potential capital loss for commodity exporting countries along with other movement of either illicit or illegal financial flows. The highest annual estimate of $117 billion loss for developing countries trading with Switzerland suggests substan- tial issue in times of development aid turmoil. I attribute such grievous matters to Switzerland's low effort to meet international norms of international trade and trade transparency. The transfer pricing manipulation might also serve as a vehicle for money laundering, terrorist financing, corruption, or tax and tariff evasion and avoidance, as the data imply. JEL Classificiation F14, F23, F39, F62, F63, O24 Keywords illicit financial flows, transfer pricing manipulation, transparency, commodities Author's email slama.ondrej@gmail.com Supervisor's email jansky.peta@gmail.com 1
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Mapping of a consumption basket for school canteens in selected elementary schools in Český Krumlov
SMĚŠNÁ, Alena
The aim of a bachelor's thesis is to map a performance of consumer basket standards in selected elementary school canteens in Český Krumlov. Theoretic part consists of information about the history and legislative of school canteens, definition of a consumer basket and its commodity and general information about selected elementary schools and their school canteens. Practical part contains gathered datas of consumer baskets in selected school canteens in a period 2012-2015 and evaluation of the observance of given consumer basket standards. A document analysis and method of a quantitive processing of gained figures was employed to acquire presented datas.
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