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Fiscal Policy Rules
Prušvic, David ; Izák, Vratislav (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee) ; Žák, Milan (referee)
Předkládaná práce zachycuje komplexnějším způsobem problematiku fiskálních pravidel, včetně vybraných v realitě používaných typů, s cílem přispět na základě analýzy současného stavu fiskálních rámců v Evropské unii a v České republice k diskusi o volbě vhodného fiskálního pravidla pro české veřejné finance a českou ekonomiku. Stěžejní typy fiskálních pravidel byly komparovány jednak vzájemně, jakožto i ve vztahu k osmi fundamentálním atributům ideálního fiskálního pravidla. Pozornost byla rovněž věnována chování pravidel v rámci hospodářského cyklu. Ze srovnávaných pravidel bylo celkově nejlépe hodnoceno pravidlo výdajové. Jelikož primárním fiskálním rámcem po české veřejné finance je Pakt stability a růstu, byla spolu s Maastrichtskými fiskálními kritérii hodnocena jeho účinnost. Metodou pro hodnocení byla vybrána panelová regresní technika nejmenších čtverců s fixními efekty. Výsledek ekonometrické verifikace potom naznačil, že pravidlo Paktu účinné skutečně bylo, avšak že je funkční pouze tehdy, je-li skutečně vynutitelné (citelná ztráta z nečlenství v ?euro klubu?). Další část práce se teoreticky věnujeme otázce koordinace politiky fiskální a měnové. Analýza se ubírá směrem malých otevřených ekonomik cílujících míru inflace s deficitním omezením, čili k problematice relevantní pro českou ekonomiku. Sestavujeme tak teoretický model, kterým ukazujeme, jak tyto dva stěžejní elementy hospodářské politiky reagují na chování druhé autority sledujíce svůj zájem vyjádřený tzv. ztrátovou funkcí příslušné autority a kdy je možné dosáhnout bodu stálého stavu v prostoru nástrojů měnové a fiskální politiky. Řešíme rovněž otázku koordinace těchto dvou makropolitik po vstupu české ekonomiky do společného měnového prostoru a pomocí dedukce pak z nastolených premis modelu usuzujeme na důležitost fiskálního pravidla v malých ekonomikách pro jejich ?zdravý? fiskální vývoj. Na závěr práce syntetizujeme získané poznatky a vyvozujeme patřičné závěry pro českou hospodářskou politiku, které ústí do návrhu vlastního, resp. modifikace, fiskálního pravidla vhodného pro české veřejné finance v kontextu evropského Paktu stability a růstu.
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Doors and Door Handle Localization for PR2
Botka, Roland ; Španěl, Michal (referee) ; Kapinus, Michal (advisor)
The aim of this work is to design and create a module for locating doors and handles for the robotic platform PR2. Finding the doors should be done separately, which means that the robot finds a door in the room without assistance. Handle position is stored in a file which the data are read from based on the AR code affixed to the door. The result of this module should be a program for the Robotic operating system that will locate the door in the room, and give information about them. These informations will be the basis for the work of another module, which open the door. The final test took place in a faculty robotic laboratory
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Decompilation of High-Level Constructions in C++ Binaries
Jakub, Dušan ; Křivka, Zbyněk (referee) ; Matula, Peter (advisor)
The thesis addresses the decompilation of high-level object-oriented C++ language from a machine code. The term reverse engineering is defined and existing decompilers are described with emphasis on their ability to reconstruct C++. AVG decompiler project is introduced, to which this thesis contributes. C++ language is analysed, both on a logical level and in the machine code and existing methods of decompilation are described. On this basis a novel method is introduced, capable of decompiling classes, their hierarchy, constructors, destructors and definitions and usages of virtual methods. The method is implemented, tested and evaluated. In the conclusion, several suggestions for future development of this project are presented.
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Methods of volatility estimation
Hrbek, Filip ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Fičura, Milan (referee)
In this masterthesis I have rewied basic approaches to volatility estimating. These approaches are based on classical and Bayesian statistics. I have applied the volatility models for the purpose of volatility forecasting of a different foreign exchange (EURUSD, GBPUSD and CZKEUR) in the different period (from a second period to a day period). I formulate the models EWMA, GARCH, EGARCH, IGARCH, GJRGARCH, jump diffuison with constant volatility and jump diffusion model with stochastic volatility. I also proposed an MCMC algorithm in order to estimate the Bayesian models. All the models we estimated as univariate models. I compared the models according to Mincer Zarnowitz regression. The most successfull model is the jump diffusion model with a stochastic volatility. On the second place they were the GJR- GARCH model and the jump diffusion model with a constant volatility. But the jump diffusion model with a constat volatilit provided much more overvalued results.The rest of the models were even worse. From the rest the IGARCH model is the best but provided undervalued results. All these findings correspond with R squared coefficient.
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AI techniques in algorhitmic trading
Šmejkal, Oldřich ; Pavlíčková, Jarmila (advisor) ; Berka, Petr (referee)
Diploma thesis is focused on research and description of current state of machine learning field, focusing on methods that can be used for prediction and classification of time series, which could be then applied in the algorithmic trading field. Reading of theoretical section should explain basic principles of financial markets, algorithmic trading and machine learning also to reader, which was previously familiar with the subject only very thoroughly. Main objective of application part is to choose appropriate methods and procedures, which match current state of art techniques in machine learning field. Next step is to apply it to historical price data. Result of application of selected methods is determination of their success at out of sample data that was not used during model calibration. Success of prediction was evaluated by accuracy metric along with Sharpe ratio of basic trading strategy that is based on model predictions. Secondary outcome of this work is to explore possibilities and test usability of technologies used in application part. Specifically is tested and used SciPy environment, that combines Python with packages and tools designed for data analysis, statistics and machine learning.
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Aplikace optimalizačních metod na problémy výroby elektřiny
Šumbera, Jiří ; Dlouhý, Martin (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee) ; Hančlová, Jana (referee)
This thesis deals with application of optimisation methods based on linear and mixed-integer linear programming to various problems in the power sector related to electricity production. The thesis goal is to test the applicability of such methods to formulating and solving various instances from the class of real-world electricity production problems, and to find the advantages and disadvantages associated with using these methods. Introductory chapters describe the main characteristics of power markets, including the historical and regulatory context. Fundamental properties of power markets on both demand and supply side are also described, both from a real-world and a modelling point of view. Benefits of optimisation and modelling are discussed, in particular the solution feasibility and optimality as well as insights gained from sensitivity analysis which is often difficult to replicate with the original system. In the core of the thesis, optimisation techniques are applied to three case studies, each of which deals with a specific problem arising during electricity production. In the first problem, the profit of gas-fired power plant in Slovakia from selling power on the day-ahead market is maximised. The model is set up using both technical and commercial constraints. The second problem deals with the problem of representing a two-dimensional production function which primarily arises for a hydro generator with large variations in the level of its reservoir. Several representations of the original function using piecewise linear subsets are presented, compared, and characterised by their computational intensity both theoretically and practically. In the third problem, the prices on the German day-ahead market in 2011 are modelled. Contrary to the previous two models, the model does not capture an optimisation problem faced by a single producer, but incorporates a large subset of the whole market instead. Consequently the model is formed out of generic constraints relevant to all power plants whose parameters are estimated. By combining information about the aggregate availability of power plants with the estimated efficiencies a full supply curve for each day is created. Different scenarios are analysed to test the impact of uncertain inputs such as unknown or estimated constraints. The choice of the investigated problems stems from the attempt to cover electricity production problems from the point of view of multiple criteria. The three investigated electricity production problems span a broad range from the decisions of a single power plant to the modelling a power market as a whole. Formulations of the production function with different level of detail are presented ranging from a simple linear relationship to several bivariate function formulations. While each problem answers a specific question, they all illustrate the ease with which various electricity production problems can solved using optimisation methods based on linear and mixed-integer linear programming. This is mainly due to the ability of these methods to approximate even non-linear functions and constraints over non-convex domains and find global solutions in reasonable time. Moreover, models formulated with these methods allow sensitivity and scenario analyses to be carried out easily as is illustrated in each of the case studies.
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Vliv hazardu na kriminalitu: evidence z České Republiky
Lupač, Milan ; Dušek, Libor (advisor) ; Špecián, Petr (referee)
The focus of this thesis is to examine the relationship between gambling and crime in the Czech environment, where gambling is broadly available. Data about the individual gambling machines and tables together with the data about offenses in particular police districts were used in order to estimate the effect of gambling on crime. The final dataset observes 388 geographical units over the life span between April 2013 and December 2015. The study employs three estimation techniques the OLS, Poisson regression and Negative binomial regression to estimate the effect of gambling on crime. The main variable representing the size of gambling is the number of slot machines as these are the most broadly available type of gambling. The final estimated relationship between crime and slot machines is that one additional slot machine is associated with an increase in crime by 0.3-0.5% depending on the method and frequency. On the contrary, the effect of casino games, electromechanical roulettes, and dice devices on crime was found to be statistically insignificant. In addition, the study also analyses particular types of crimes, finding that gambling has an impact particularly on crimes that involve material benefits as opposed to the violent crimes. Moreover, it also conducts a what-if analysis demonstrating the estimated impact of reduction of gambling on the substantial drop of the number of offenses over the observed period was rather limited and account for 937 offenses.
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Powertrain Vibration Modelling using Virtual Prototypes
Prokop, Aleš ; Bauer, František (referee) ; Dundálek, Radim (referee) ; Novotný, Pavel (advisor)
This work deals with the matter of powertrain vibration reduction, focusing on the transmission. These units, depending on the purpose of utilization, consist of a high number of dimensionally complex components. These need to possess features, selected already in the design phase, which would guarantee smooth and quiet operation. A properly designed tooth profile and the related specified accuracy of manufacturing are one of the most important features. The basic function and the purpose of transmissions application indicate a relatively wide range of operating speeds and transmitted loads. Moreover, combination of both loading with improperly designed string’s parameter can cause a number of various problems. The vibration initiation with related noise from gear mesh belong to the most significant sources of issues. There are multiple mechanisms of oscillation initiation. Even when using the latest trends in the development of teeth, when their shape is upgraded and developed to meet specifically given load range, the above mentioned irregularity of transferred torque cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, it is necessary, already in the design phase, to eliminate the transmission paths by which are vibrations transmitting to other components. People perceive this action in the form of vibration, noise, or temperature change in the surroundings. With the increasing comfort levels and number of produced vehicles the reduction of vibration and noise of machinery parts becomes stricter, including gears. The experimental approach is primarily used to assess the accuracy of designed gearboxes, but it is a very expensive and a time consuming method. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a process that utilizes both numerical simulation and experimental approach but also combines the advantages of both, particularly time and cost savings and comparability of results. For this purpose, the experimental gearbox is designed and manufactured including the single-stage gear enabling variable configurations in terms of the ratio change. The gearbox is subjected to numerical simulation of different complexity levels, as well as technical experiment. Furthermore, the universal virtual prototype in Multi-Body System ADAMS is created, which reflects the impact of several key parameters for proper functionality, such as axial distance, backlash, gear mesh stiffness, shaft mounting stiffness (bearings) and modal properties of the shafts and gearbox housing. Last but not least, the impact of imbalance or irregularity of input shaft speed is incorporated. The last part focuses on a brief description of the application of the presented methodology – modelling of vibrations on the tractor gearbox.
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The economic importance of energy in the Czech Republic
Štěpánková, Nicole ; Urbánková, Erika (advisor) ; Jitka, Jitka (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the economic importance of energy in the country. Along with this theme are reviewed macroeconomic indicators, which are compared with some of the attributes of the energy sector, so that they can assess their significance and coherence. Impact on GDP is reviewed in terms of electricity production, and also by means of the export of electricity. Impact of energy on the unemployment rate is evaluated from the perspective of people employed in the field of energy. The overall trade balance is evaluated in terms of import and export of electricity and natural gas. Finally, assessment of inflation through the development of prices of both commodities in the wholesale market. To evaluate these indicators are used statistical methods such as regression and correlation analysis. In conclusion, the thesis explains predetermined hypothesis and comprehensive assessment of the actual importance.
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Economic impacts of development of graduate unemployment on the national economy of Czech Republic
Jirský, Aleš ; Urbánková, Erika (advisor) ; Jitka, Jitka (referee)
The presented thesis addresses the challenges associated with the development of graduate unemployment and its impact on the national economy. Graduates are taken as one of the vulnerable groups in the labor market. Their lack of work experience and low employee morale threatens their possible applicability in the labor market. The underlying data was taken from the Czech Statistical Office and the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, which were monitored over a time horizon of ten years. The observation was focused on development of total number of graduates, altogether with total number of vacancies intended for them I have analyzed the state's spending on national employment policy and structure. Furthermore, I examined the number of graduates in relation to the total number of graduates, who should show their adaptability in the labor market. Another outcome was to build an econometric model which I've confronted with economic theory obtained by studying the literature review. The resulting outputs confirmed 3 of 4 theoretical assumptions. The only prerequisite was not met and that the increased number of graduates did not significantly affect the overall unemployment rate.
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