|
Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
|
|
Differences between men and women in the Czech labour market
Stroukal, Dominik ; Kadeřábková, Božena (advisor) ; Pavelka, Tomáš (referee) ; Němec, Otakar (referee)
This thesis consists of five articles that apply current world research on labor economics at the Czech Republic and confirms the significant differences between men and women in this market. It shows that gender has a significant influence on the preference on the labor market and, consequently, on employment and health. First, the thesis shows that preferences are relevant determinant of career and then we study the difference in preference of salary for men and women. Subsequently it shows that gender plays a significant role in explaining the relationship between homeownership, and unemployment, as well as unemployment and health. The first chapter was able to demonstrate that the preference for a career has a positive influence on the choice of career. The influence of higher education on prioritizing career proved to be positive and significant. Probability of a career choice is reduced by the presence of children, however, is not dependent on their number, which is contrary to the theory of preferences. The second chapter shows that Czech women prefer more non-monetary rewards than men. It has also been shown that people with university education are same in the preferences of non-monetary rewards regardless of the gender of the respondents, however, compared to the world's research, the Czech higher education increases this preference. It turned out that women prefer risk less than men. The third chapter demonstrates that although the housing market undermines labor mobility and employment in the Czech Republic at the regional level, therefore, that in regions with a higher rate of home ownership is higher unemployment, at the individual level, the owners of housing are unemployed are less likely. The estimates are significantly different for men and women. Men living in owner-occupied housing have a higher likelihood of employment than women. At regional level, however, this thesis shows that the high rate of home ownership increases unemployment for both men and women, in the long run only to women. The fourth chapter showed that men transition to homeownership reduces the likelihood of unemployment next year. For women, this relationship has proved to be insignificant. In addition, as insignificant showed the opposite relationship, the transition from unemployment to the newly acquired home ownership. The last chapter shows that the change in the working status to unemployment will increase in the future probability of worse health. Influence in less than two years, however, proved to be significant. An important conclusion is that men have a significantly stronger relationship between health and unemployment than women.
|
|
Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
|
|
Permeation of VOC vapours through carbon nanotube network membranes controlled electrically
Slobodian, P. ; Říha, Pavel ; Olejník, R.
In this letter, we report the increase of permeation rates of some typical volatile organic compounds through entangled carbon nanotube networks by an electric current. The change in the permeation rate is reversible when the\ncurrent is turned off. The permeation rise is partly probably due to Joule effect and thus increased membrane temperature and vapor pressure in the vicinity of the inlet side of membrane. However, the effects of vapor polarity and electrostatic interaction of vapors and charged nanotubes seem to be also involved and contribute to the differentiation between alcohol and carbohydrate vapors permeation.
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - December 2016
Česká národní banka
Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on a major phenomenon of the day: the migration of people into Europe, and Germany in particular. In this context, we present an analysis of the effect of the increased number of refugees on the German labour market. We show, among other things, that the incoming migrants will be far from enough to cover the demand for labour in Germany and also that they will compete more with workers arriving in search of jobs in Germany from Central and Eastern European countries than with German citizens.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - October 2016
Česká národní banka
The October issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we focus in detail on the industrial producer price index (PPI), which, alongside the consumer price index (CPI), is a key indicator of inflation on the production side of the economy. We also explain the specifics of the PPI, especially in the EU, and present a model simulation indicating the sensitivity of the PPI to a change in oil prices.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
|
Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange
Hurdálek, Michal ; Procházka, Petr (advisor)
The bachelor thesis deals with trading in the forex market. The theoretical part describes the Forex market, its history, when it traded, what is traded, which entities are involved in the market and selected basic concepts, that you must know in this market. There are also basic procedures and rules as the speculative individual should behave on the market in different situations and how to distribute the funds, to avoid a large percentage losses of the capital, as the foundation of financial literacy should think about knowledge. At the conclusion of the practical part, there is the technical analysis, that justifies and predicts the future development of exchange rates. Technical analysis is followed by a practical part, which describes the transactions, that were carried out under real conditions on the currency pair EUR / USD. These transactions were carried out using two technical indicators, Moving averages and Bollinger bands. At the conclusion of the work, there is the evaluation of these two indicators, which one was more profitable for us.
|
|
Analysis breeding of milk cattle on the chosen biofarme
Plášková, Pavlína ; Toušová, Renata (advisor) ; Ducháček, Jaromír (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to evaluace the conditions of dairy cattle breeding in ecological agriculture and to compare them with concrete values taken from the chosen ecological farm Bílčice, which has been part of ecological agriculture since 2011 and which is focused on czech fleckvieh breeding and bio milk production. The first part deals with dairy cattle breed characteristic, main objectives and ecological agriculture principals, welfare problems, breed cattle and utility control, housing technology, nutrition and feeding, mechanical milking technology, milk production, reproduction, health condition and breeding economy. The practical part contains the rating of milk yield index (milk production, % proteins, % fat) and reproduction index ( meantime, perioda service, insemination index and after first parturition percentage). 650 pieces of cos were stabled at farm, from that 200 pices of dairy cos were mostly czech fleckvieh. Monitoring was made in 2013. Dayily milk production was around 2 750 kg. The milk utility for lactacion was in 2013 6 100 kg of milk, 3,89 % fat and 3,34 % proteins. The dairy cos were free stabled with high bedding, They were mechanically milked twice a day in herringbone parlours. Milk is being delivered once in twodays to Olma dairy. Cows are regularly driven out to pasture in summer feeding period. They are extra fed with 10 kg of clover silage and 6 kg of scarp (barely, wheat, triticale). Cows stays in stables for winter time. The ration consists of 45 kg of clover silage, 6 kg of scarp, 2 kg of lupine and 1 kg of corn in first time of lactacion. The cow utility in transitional form of economy at farm Bilcice was 7 477 kg of milk in 2010, a value in the Czech Republic was 7 726 kg of milk. After entering the ecological agriculture in 2013 milk yield at the farm decreased on 6 100 kg of milk and the average value in the Czech Republic increased to 8 370 kg of milk. The cow utility in transitional form was 4,03 % fat in 2010 and 3,89 % in 2013 (ecological agriculture). A diference between 2010 and 2013 is 0,14 %. Proteins were 3,39 % in 2010 and 3,34 % in 2013. There was average value for every reproduction index. The service period was 96 days and the meantime was 400 days, the insemination index was 1,8 and the after first parturition percentage was 54,2 %.
|
|
Arctic tundra dendrochronology
Lehejček, Jiří ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Monika, Monika (referee)
Historically unprecedented environmental change in the Arctic ecosystems is often given into the context of its past and possible future development. In the region where instrumental meteorological observations are scarce archives need to be investigated in order to address this issues. The comprehensive synthesis one of the archives: long-live circumpolar evergreen Juniperus communis L. shrub is presented here. 20 individuals from southwest Greenland were investigated at the cell anatomy level to understand the ecology of the species and unhide its potential for environmental and climate reconstructions. The findings are as follows:
i) Stop of exponential cross-sectional conduit-lumen widening with increasing age is in contrast with conduit-lumen nature of trees. This indicates that shrubs do not need to saturate their water and nutrient demands via traits of classical hydraulic conductivity law but rather developed different mechanisms. Extreme weather conditions result in prostrate growth form. However, different weather factors probably influence shrub growth differently: While snow and wind act mechanically (a), temperature influences the form of growth physiologically (b). a) So long as the young shrub stem has high resilience to bend back to an upright position after snow melt and so long as it can withstand the wind during the vegetation season it most likely grows upright and the conduit-lumens widen. b) Temperature, resp. freeze-thaw events are responsible for the shrubs preference of safety (finite size of conduit-lumens) over hydraulic efficiency, thus not allowing for more primary growth. All of these (and other) factors are apparently working together and the transition of vertical to more horizontal growth is gradual. As a consequence, the conduit-lumen sizes may not have to be further increased (due to ecophysiological restrictions possibly also must not) because water is no longer transported against gravity.
ii) Observed age/growth trend has to be taken into consideration for further employment of the wood anatomical parameter in paleoenvironmental studies. That is, shrub cell parameters can only be used for this purposes if correctly detrended. This allows for more accurate as well as longer reconstructions because youth trend was often neglected in reconstructions based on shrub annual-rings.
iii) The south-western Greenland Ice-Sheet (GrIS) melt rates reconstruction is presented for the whole 20th century. This part of GrIS is considered as the most active. According to the presented reconstruction current GrIS melt rates are not uncommon for the last century being comparable to first decades of 20th century. This finding is particularly important contribution to the debate on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Too high fresh water inputs into the Northern Atlantic from GrIS melting may slow down or even stop the AMOC which would result in more continental climate in Europe. Presented results indicate that this threshold lies higher than observed current melt rates of GrIS.
Fascinating Juniperus comunnis species has shown to be able to address many ecological as well as environmental open questions and due to its longevity and abundant distribution has a great potential to become an important player in the Arctic research.
|
|
Information content in vocalization of guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus): individual distinction and recognition of predators
Baklová, Aneta ; Baranyiová, Eva (advisor) ; František, František (referee)
Guinea pigs represent domesticated precocious rodents which became common pets. From the first day after birth they are fully vocal. This thesis was devoted
to the vocalization of pups. The aim of the thesis was to 1) determine the age when the vocal individuality in whistle sound is demonstrable; 2) test possible ultrasonic signals emitted by young guinea pigs; 3) study the antipredator reactions and alarm calls to aerial (bird of prey) and terrestrial (dog) predators and human (control test).
A total of 16 guinea pig pups were tested for vocal individuality, 28 pups
for ultrasonic vocalization and 27 adolescents for predator recognition. When testing vocal ontogeny during the first 9 days after birth, I observed changes in temporal, frequency and parameter of intensity . When I test vocal individuality by cross-validated discriminant function analysis (DFA) based on ten acoustic parameters, calls were classified to correct animals with following success: day 1 = 71.9%, day 3 = 58.8%, day 5 = 53.10%, day 7 = 50.60% and day 9 = 63.10%. The highest frequency in whistle was 30.03 kHz. In predator discrimination reactions as freezing, fleeing and vigilance were observed. In the presence of dog, guinea pigs reacted for the longest time and most frequently by freezing. When confronted with a bird of prey, I observed for a longest time and most often fleeing and then freezing. When exposed to a human, guinea pigs showed mostly vigilance. Almost no vocalization was observed except for two events
of alarm calls - drrr as in the presence of dog and chirrup as reaction to bird of prey.
The following conclusions can be drawn from the presented results: 1) vocal individuality of guinea pigs is demonstrable immediately after birth and the rate
of individually different vocal parameters changes with age; 2) guinea pigs are able
to produce sound up to 30 kHz, i.e. within the ultrasound range, but signals of high frequencies are not crucial for their communication; 3) guinea pigs discriminate between terrestrial and aerial predators, but they emit alarm calls rather rarely.
|
guest ::
