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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Improving logistics operations in the warehouse of Stroj Servis Plus
Feklistov, Maxim ; Vinš, Marek (advisor) ; Mervart, Michal (referee)
This bachelor thesis is focusing on the logistic operations in the warehouse of a particular organization. The objective of the thesis is to analyze logistics operations in the warehouse of Stroj Servis Plus and propose certain measures, based on selected methods, which might lead to improvement in the efficiency of the current logistics operations. This bachelor thesis is divided into two parts. In first part, theoretical part, is describing the basic theoretical concepts and principles, connected with the main field of the interest. The second part, practical part, begins with the introduction of the company Stroj Servis Plus and analyzing of the logistics operations in the warehouse. Based on the facts, discovered in the intercompany documents, own practice in the firm and theoretical knowledge propose solutions that would eliminate any disadvantages and improve logistics operations in warehouse of the selected company.
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Optimalization of material flow in automotive industry
Kolář, Tomáš ; Jirsák, Petr (advisor) ; Vinš, Marek (referee)
This master thesis is focussed on optimalization of material flow in an automotive company. First part introduce theoretical background. Automotive industry and its actual trends on global markets. Follows short introduction of the company where project of this thesis was executed. Main theoretical part describes concept of lean management, its tools in practical examples, but it is also focussed on philosophical approach to the work and mindset of the company. Follows the aplication part based on theoretical background. The whole project of this master thesis is focussed on specific area called PC store. At first this area is showed in context of overall material flow. Shortly there are introduced processes and areas where full material packaging flows. Follows deeper analysis and optimalization of PC store itself. There are three approaches of stock and lead time reduction applied. Last part shows the comparison of initial and future state including performed changes.
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Výběr a implementace open source nástroje pro řízení portfolia projektů
Marek, Jan ; Chlapek, Dušan (advisor) ; Kučera, Jan (referee)
Methods and ways of implementation of changes and innovations in companies through project management are in today's society very well established. There exists methodologies, techniques and tools for the management of individual projects. However in a role of project manager, I very often faced the fact that companies are performing the project portfolio management in very intuitive way. This in itself leads to failed and prematurely terminated projects, initiation of the wrong projects or realisation of correct projects, but at the wrong time. Very often I have also recognized, that there is lack of awareness of fact, that there are also Open Source applications that can help with the organization's portfolio. This thesis deals with the definition of requirements, search and selection of proper OSS application and subsequent implementation. In the first part of this thesis I prepare a theoretical framework about PPM, and on that basis then identify and verify a set of requirements for selection of right OSS PPM application. The next section of thesis describes searching for suitable applications from a variety of sources, assessment against the requirements and the final selection. In the last part the implementation project is drafted, which aims to serve other colleagues in project management as one of the possible implementation paths. The outputs are then continuously confronted with experts in matter of projects and project management in the field of IT in order to maximize symbiosis between theory and real life experiences. Virtually every project management methodology defines the collection of already-proven techniques, best practices or lessons learned from the previous similar implementations. The main contribution of this thesis I see in fact that it contains not only the design of the project implementation, but also describes a logical path, what leads to the result. Therefore this thesis could be used as a base or discussed best practice, when a project of implementation of PPM application in place.
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Association of Idependent Theatres of the Czech Republic – Analysis and Description of the Current State
Bodoríková, Markéta ; KAŠPAR, David (advisor) ; PROKOP, Petr (referee)
The thesis is focused on newly established Association of Independent Theaters of the Czech Republic, officially using the abbreviation AND ČR. The aim of the thesis is to describe formation of the association, its current state, future plans and its functioning. The first part examines the term “independent professional theater” and briefly characterizes selected organizations from the Czech Republic and Europe with the potential to meet with the AND ČR in the cultural area in future. In the following parts were researched needs of independent professional scene in Prague and was described the needs analysis for the field of “independent” theater from the year 2013. The thesis describes the development of AND ČR, its activities up to current stage, organizational structure and future short-term plans. In the final part of the thesis, there is defined the management system of the association and established its possible improvements so the AND ČR would become the leading organization representing independent professional theaters in the Czech Republic.
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Interpretive principles in Verdi's operas
Beneš, Andrej ; HAJÓSSYOVÁ, Magdaléna (advisor) ; VOTAVOVÁ, Yvona (referee)
The master’s thesis deals with the theme creation of the opera production of Giuseppe Verdi with the focus on his opera Falstaff and deals with significant important interpretations of this opera. This dissertation is supposed to bring a complete picture of Verdi’s opera production pointing out some details which are not commonly known nor from the public nor in the professional music world. What appears in this work is Verdi’s correspondence (letters). I consider these letters an authentic source to understand Verdi’s creative and artistic intentions. Hereafter I portray an idea of how to perceive opera Falstaff not only from my point of view but I used the lead from the Italian reviews and musicology.
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Managerial skills
Červinková, Barbora ; Kříž, Josef (advisor) ; Zdeněk, Zdeněk (referee)
The theoretical basis of this thesis explains the terms closely associated with the management and managerial skills. Introductory part relates to approach the concept itself and the executive management, we are further broken down managerial functions, which are continuously illuminates to describe other skills, such as communication, goal setting, skills and coaching. The main point is to approach the concepts of soft and hard skills that managers should possess, or which should in the course of his practice to learn. Only by careful control of both of these groups of skills can lead to good organization. For a clearer explanation of the managerial skills included graphic view, which approximates the distribution of skills. In the second part, a practical part, described the situation with the existing skills of managers in the selected company. Thanks to the questionnaire, it is possible to measure the current level of acquired skills of managers at three levels and can be evaluated, what is the interest of improving individual skills, or whether managers feel sufficiently qualified for their job positions.
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Freezing technology of bull sperm in relation to its survivability and fertilization ability
Doležalová, Martina ; Stádník, Luděk (advisor) ; Jiří, Jiří (referee)
The aim of optimalization the insemination doses production is to provide the highest fertilization ability of spermatozoa during the demanding proces of processing fresh semen and its subsequent cryopreservation. Temperature changes causes spermatozoa damage during the cooling and freezing. Spermatozoa is exposed to cold shock and many others limiting factors, which leads to cell death and therefore to decline of fertilization ability of thawed insemination doses. For increasing spermatozoa resistance, exactly the plasma membrane resistance against cold shock was fraction of egg yolk LDL cholesterol (low density lipoprotein) at various concentrations into the comercially produced diluents added. It is believed that LDL acts possitively to plasma membrane and helps to maintain the fertilization ability of spermatozoa after thawing. Following step in the proces of insemination doses production is slow cooling of diluted semen and equilibration, when the straws are store at cooling box for 30 minutes to 240 hours. This period is necessary to penetrate of certain diluent components into the spermatazoa also maintain the balance between their intracellular and extracellular concentration. Also important is subsequent freezing temperature gradient of insemination doses. The most suitable freezing method is based on computer controlled temperature decline in freezing chamber which allows the precise control of ice crystals formation that could tear and kill the cell.
During 2012 to 2016 was repeatedly collected semen from the group of breeding bulls (n = 27, Holstein and Czech Fleckvieh breed) at AI centre. Semen which fulfill the standard entrance conditions in first step was evenly into several parts divided. For dilution the three types of comercially diluents AndroMed, Bioxcell and Triladyl with and without LDL addition were used. Into the diluents AndroMed and Bioxcell the concentration of LDL 4 %, 6 % and 8% into the dilent Triladyl 6 %, 8 % and 10 % was added. Diluted semen was filled into the glass capillares with volume 0,1 ml and temperature +4 °C. Subsequently the sample was placed to cold bath (0°C) for 10 minutes. Then the volume of capillare with physiological solution (37 °C) was mixed and for next 120 minutes was incubate. The effect of cold shock to proportion of live spermatozoa was evaluated by using Eosin and Nigrosine staining technique during heat test of spermatozoa survivability after spermatozoa heating and after 120 minutes of incubation.
The more suitable semen diluents which provide the higher spermatozoa resistance against cold shock were AndroMed and Bioxcell. Together the possitive effect of LDL addition into the diluents to lower decrease of proportion of live spermatozoa during heat test was found (P<0.05). The most suitable LDL concentration which had a favorable influence at spermatozoa resistance against cold shock was 6 % in diluent Bioxcell. Values of the proportion of live sperm were higher at the beginning of the heat test (+1.31% to + 3.2%) and after 120 minute incubation (+5.82% to +8.41%) compared to other diluents with and without addition of LDL.
In the next step the process of equilibration was optimized, is an important part of insemination doses production. The effect of the length of equilibration for subsequent fertilization ability of spermatozoa was evaluated using spermatozoa motility based of CASA and proportion of live spermatozoa after thawing and during heat survival test lasting 120 minutes (37 ° C). Suitable semen was diluted by comercially used diluent AndroMed based on soya lecithin, filled into the straws (0.25 ml), cooled and equilibrated in cooling box for 30, 120 and 240 minutes and freezed in programmable freezing box applying four types of freezing curves differing in temperature rate decline. There was used standard and by producer recommended 3. phase freezing curve, then 2. phase freezing curve, and 3. phase freezing curve with slower as well as rapid decline of temperature rate in freezing chamber, compared with standard freezing curve. The highest spermatozoa motility was found using 240 minutes of equilibration by +2.72% and +4.58% compared to other lengths of equilibration (P <0.05 to 0.01). The highest proportion of live spermatozoa was found using 120 minutes of equilibration (+6.87 % and +8.68 %). The highest average spermatozoa motility during heat test after thawing was achieved by using 2. phase freezing curve (from +2.97% to +10.37%, P <0.05), also in the proportion of live spermatozoa (from + 4.37% to +8.82%, P <0.01). When evaluating interaction between the length of equilibration and freezing curve (standard 3. phase and 2 . phase freezing curve), the highest average spermatozoa motility and proportion of live spermatozoa using 240 minutes of equilibration by both freezing curves was reached, there was no statistically significant differences. As well as, in all evaluated parts of this study the individual differences between ejaculate of bulls and within semen from one bull (P <0.05) as secondary effect were found.
To maintain good fertilization ability of semen during cryopreservation is necessary to increase the spermatozoa resistance against cold shock using addition of correct concentration of LDL into the commercially used diluents AndroMed and Bioxcell. Subsequently the fertilization ability of insemination dose is influenced by cooling, the length of equilibration and freezing. The length of equilibration 120 minutes and more as well as gentle way of freezing according to freezing curve, which ensures a gradual decrease of temperature in freezing chamber provided the higher average spermatozoa motility and proportion of live spermatozoa.
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Total contents and speciation of arsenic and selenium in plants growing in soils with different physico-chemical properties
Tremlová, Jana ; Száková, Jiřina (advisor) ; Vymazal, Jan (referee)
This dissertation thesis deals with uptake, accumulation and transformation of arsenic and selenium in plants growing on soils with different chemico-physical soil properties. The contents of arsenic were investigated in 99 wild plant species, coming from 27 different families and 6 different vegetables growing in arsenic contaminated soils. The results suggest that there are species-specific mechanisms which protects certain plants from the excessive uptake of arsenic from the soil. On the other hand, there are plants using a strategy of accumulation, which theoretically may increase the risk of arsenic entry into the food chain, whether through grazing cattle and wildlife or through consumption of vegetables growing on arsenic contaminated soils. The most prevalent arsenic compounds are AsV and AsIII. Other arsenic compounds occure as minor species. An important finding was detection of arsenobetaine in Plantago lanceolata L. and Carex praecox Schreb ..
The contents of selenium were examined in 73 species of wild plants, coming from 29 different families. The results suggest that naturally low levels of selenium in the soil of selected locations along with a low capability of selenium uptake via collected plant species lead to the low content of selenium in plant biomass which may contribute to selenium deficient throughout the food chain. Foliar application of selenate on wild plant communities and on some types of vegetables in our case Brassica oleracea var. italica can have a positive impact on increasing the selenium content in the aboveground biomass of these plants and by extension, increase the selenium content in the human diet. Dominant selenium compounds in the aboveground biomass of the analyzed plants were SeVI and selenomethionine, with variable proportion of other commonly occurring organic selenium compounds, which is mainly affected by plant species.
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Crime prevention at secondary vocational school
Hofbauerová, Soňa ; Jirsáková, Jitka (advisor) ; Miroslava, Miroslava (referee)
The bachelor thesis focuses on hazardous behaviour of adolescentsand crime prevention at vocational school. Theoretical part explains concepts related to adolescence, describes causes and exanples of juvenile crime and clarifies types of crime prevention.
Empirical part of the thesis contains basic information on Secondary Vocantional School of Energy in Chomutov. Further, a quantitative questionnaire survey, conducted at the mentioned school, is processed an evaulated. On the basis of results of the survey recommendations leading to improve the crime prevention are suggested in the conclusion.
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