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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Communications Intercultural Aspect in Working Environment of a chosen Firm
Jenšovský, Šimon ; Hiršová, Miloslava (advisor) ; Balgová, Dagmar (referee)
The thesis covers cultural differences among employees of a multi-national corporation in relation to communication and task execution. Thesis aims to construct a theoretical framework to map these cultural differences and apply gathered insights in practical research targeting the effect of cultural differences on communication and task execution. Research questionnaire replicates Hofstede's work and also builds on practical application of Hofstede's work by several authors. Research data were gathered via digital questionnaire. Data refinement and evaluation was conducted using frequency description and statistical methods of structure comparison. The thesis provides a set of practical recommendations as a result. These are aimed to help reduce or possibly eliminate negative effects of cultural differences in the workplace.
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Aspects of the virtualization of higher education and its comparison in the CZ and US
Dlauhá, Dominika ; Šedivá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Pour, Jan (referee)
The topic of this thesis is the evolution of online higher education in the CZ and US, from its beginnings to its current state. Emphasis is placed on describing MOOCs and virtualization in education, ranging from technological, pedagogical and didactic aspects to legislature and finance. A survey was conducted to determine the interest in online courses at the University of Economics, Prague and experience with online learning, resulting in an outline of the future development in this area.
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Evaluation of chat bots
Hazdra, Jan ; Sigmund, Tomáš (advisor) ; Čermák, Radim (referee)
This thesis deals with the evaluation of theability of machines to imitate human behavior. Presents a brief history of the development on the field of artificial intelligence and intelligent machines, specifically chat botsand describes their evolution throughout the 20th century. It describes the most important features and building blocks of chat bots, including the most widely used programming languages for creating them.It also describes the theory of A. Turing, the test and the imitation game, on which is based methodology for evaluating chat bots. Then it also examines the criticism of the Turing's test by J. R. Searle's chinese room argument that is used for its better understanding and finding its boundaries. The work also describes H. Dreyfus's assumptions, which led to optimism in the late 90s in development in artificial intelligence and limits of artificial intelligence, on which he pointed out. The main objective is the metodology proposed in the second part, which is used for comparing selected chat bots and then used for their evaluation. Overall evaluation consists of evaluations in the sub-categories in which will be individual chat bots scored. The methodology is based on the Turing test, which slightly modifies, but also extends thanks to the ideas of other authors.
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Spain as a tourist destination
Zbořilová, Kristýna ; Abrhám, Josef (advisor) ; Havlíčková, Blanka (referee)
This Bachelor's Thesis deals with tourism in Spain. The topic is quite broad so the main aim of the thesis is to evaluate tourism in two significantly different regions - Andalusia and Basque Country. The first chapter defines terms related to tourism that are essential to coherently understand this thesis. For example, this part defines the term tourism and its typology. The second chapter focuses on tourism in all of Spain. In particular, Spain is described in terms of history and how tourism is evaluated. In addition, Spain's most attractive places are presented. The second to last, and final chapter are similar in structure in order to perform a comparison of the chapters. The first part of both chapters describes the regions. Then, tourism is evaluated by using statistics from incoming tourists. Finally, SWOT analysis is used to comprehensively evaluate the previously mentioned information.
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Finanční analýza společnosti United Parcel Service Czech Republic, s. r. o. a srovnání s konkurenty
Roudnická, Markéta ; Staňková, Anna (advisor) ; Marek, Petr (referee)
This thesis is focused on the financial analysis of United Parcel Service Czech Republic, s. r. o. during the period from 2010 to 2014 and the subsequent comparison of its results with selected comparable companies. The thesis is divided into two parts. In the theoretical part the methods of the financial analysis are defined and the optimal values of each financial indicator are determined. In the second part the company is introduced and the specific values of the described indicators are calculated as well as there is an intercompany comparison realized. The conclusion of this thesis is dedicated to an accurate description of the current situation of the company in the context of both optimal values and values which are usually achieved by comparable companies.
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Bank fees in Czech Republic
Burešová, Adéla ; Steininger, Michal (advisor) ; Eva, Eva (referee)
This thesis deals with bank fees in the Czech Republic, which has been a topical issue in recent years. The objective of this thesis is to analyse and compare bank fees in the Czech Republic. It also aims to evaluate selected bank fees in terms of their importance for generating profit for the banks as well as from the clients perspective. The introduction to the theoretical part describes the basic characteristics of the banking system. The thesis then presents bank products and services, bank fees and the bank fee policy. The work includes a survey and analysis of the banking market in term of banking institutions in the years 2007 to 2014. It also includes a financial analysis for the years 2007 to 2015 and an analysis of the banking market from the perspective of the client, which compares selected banking institutions on the basis of charges and selected banking products based on fees. It defines three sample groups for which the most suitable banking products and banking institutions are recommended. In conclusion, the results are formulated together with recommendations for banks and clients. For the client Student came out best a current account UniCredit Bank, U Konto for youngsters. The Active client is also recommended by UniCredit Bank with banking product of U Konto. For target group Pensioner is the most suitable banking institution mBank where the monthly cost is CZK 70. The client can save thousands of CZK per year by making the right choice.
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Comparison of single-family house prices in Nový Jičín and its surroundings in 2015 and 2016
Žemlová, Eva ; Gardášová, Alena (referee) ; Lorencová, Marie (advisor)
The thesis deals comparison of house prices in Nový Jičín and its surroundings in 2015 and 2016. This family house is located in the village Starý Jičín and then for comparison will be moved to the center of Nový Jičín. In given locations we have to determined observed price and market value. In theoretical part is explained basic terminology, the main legislation which was used and methods of valuation of immovable property. The result of this work is getting to know the influences of locations of family house and it´s price. and identify factors that influence these prices.
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Subspace Modeling of Prosodic Features for Speaker Verification
Kockmann, Marcel ; Kenny, Patrick (referee) ; Nöth, Elmar (referee) ; Černocký, Jan (advisor)
Předložená disertační práce se zabývá ověřováním mluvčího pomocí prozodických příznaků zahrnujících hodnoty základního tónu, energie a délek řečových úseků. Studovali jsme dvě rozdílné techniky pro parametrizaci: první vede k dobře definované sadě menšího počtu příznaků, druhá k vysoko-dimenzionální sadě heterogenních prozodických příznaků. První část práce se věnuje vývoji příznaků reprezentujících prozodické kontury, zde jsme vyvinuli a ověřili několik modelovacích technik, s důrazem na modelování v reprezentativních podprostorech. Druhá část práce se zaměřuje na nové pod-prostorové modelovací techniky pro heterogenní prozodické parametry s velkou dimenzionalitou. Model je teoreticky odvozen a experimentálně ověřen na oficiálních datech z NIST evaluací ověřování mluvčího (NIST Speaker Recognition Evaluation). Ve srovnání s ostatními současnými prozodickými jsme dosáhli podstatně lepších výsledků. Na konci práce presentujeme také novou techniku pro elegantní kombinaci dvou prozodických systémů. Tato technika může být použita rovněž pro fúzi prozodického systému se standardním přesným cepstrálním systémem, což vede k dalšímu podstatnému zvýšení úspěšnosti verifikace.
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