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Linear relation in stock time series
Nemčíková, Lucia ; Bašta, Milan (advisor) ; Helman, Karel (referee)
The aim of this Bachelor's Thesis is to verify the hypothesis of absence of linear relations between logarithmic returns in the stock time series, determined from the efficient markets hypothesis and the existence of linear relations between the squares of returns. I used regression analysis and conditional heteroskedasticity ARCH test of linear type, to achieve the results. My own analysis proved that even if there is a linear relation between logarithmic returns, the relation is not significant. On the other hand the linear relation between squares of returns is significant with tendency to be strong, what is a necessary condition for the use of a linear model of volatility.
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Opční strategie
Berezkin, Áron ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on a detailed analysis of the option strategy Iron Condor. In the introductory chapter the reader is sufficiently familiarized with basic functioning of the options and with influences that affect their value. Furthermore, detailed description of the strategy Iron Condor is provided including the strategy related context, which a trader needs to be aware of in order to be able to execute the strategy. In conclusion, the strategy is backtested on the U.S. index RUT and the results are analyzed.
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Valuation of options with stochastic volatility
Duben, Josef ; Málek, Jiří (advisor) ; Hudec, Patrik (referee)
The thesis is dealing with option pricing. The basic Black-Scholes model is described, along with the reasons that led to the development of stochastic volatility models. SABR model and Heston model are described in detail. These models are then applied to equity options in the times of high volatility. The models and their application are then evaluated.
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Extrakce volatility pomocí Kalmanova filtru
Kuchyňka, Alexandr
This paper focuses on the extraction of volatility of financial returns. The volatility process is modeled as a superposition of two autoregressive processes which represent the more persistent factor and the quickly mean-reverting factor. As the volatility is not observable, the logarithm of the daily high-low range is employed as its proxy. The estimation of parameters and volatility extraction are performed using a modified version of the Kalman filter which takes into account the finite sample distribution of the proxy.
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Option strategies
Čech, Petr ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on the analysis of option strategies with emphasis on practical aspect of the matter. At the beginning, there is brief introduction to theoretical basis of options, which is required for the advanced topics in this work. The following chapters concentrate mainly on the stock options, but the explained concepts can be used for options with another underlying asset as well. In the second chapter, various option strategies are discussed there. To a number of them, there is stated example from the real market situation. The next part accents the importance of implied volatility on option strategies. The last part briefly summarizes utilization of option strategies in diverse market situations.
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Comparision of spot and option market developement during a financial crisis
Buksová, Jana ; Dvořák, Petr (advisor) ; Jablonský, Petr (referee)
This graduation thesis analyses the spot and forward markets; the focus is on stock and stock-call options for two German companies -- Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. Price movement and evaluation/devaluation for the financial instrument are measured over a specific period of time. The closing chapter compares both markets using three criteria -- leverage effect, analysis of volume and traded contracts, and how volatility affects the call option price.
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The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Czech Real Export
Jurečka, Peter ; Brůžek, Antonín (advisor) ; Zahradník, Petr (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the impact of real exchange rate volatility on real export of the Czech Republic. In the first part, theoretical aspects of this relationship are examined, explaining both - positive and negative ? effects on bilateral and aggregate trade flows. Further on, empirical data and econometric tools are employed to capture the relationship between real export and its main determinants for the case of Czech Republic in the past decade. After the brief theoretical introduction to time series econometrics, the particular export demand model is proposed and various cointegration techniques are explained and applied to examine the long-run equilibrium but also short-run dynamics.
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Structure and properties of GARCH(1,1) model
Maštalíř, Jakub ; Pígl, Jan (advisor)
The aim of this thesis is to introduce the reader an econometric approach to financial time series volatility modeling and scrutinize construction, properties and constraints of the popular GARCH(1,1) model when applying it on real market data and in wider sense than it's usually presented in reference literature. In the section 1 we'll repeat some important statistical terms of time series econometrics, which will be needed in next sections. We'll talk a little bit more generally about volatility of an asset, its modeling and measuring at all, because the true values are actually unknown and we observe just its demonstration on the markets. We'll mention some important statistical tools operating as an irreplaceable component of the GARCH(1,1) model, which will be introduce in the section 2. We'll scrutinize its specific properties, advantages, constraints and indeed the statistical inference. Because it's considered as a flexible model with rather general structure we'll also discuss some complications which can occur during its applications and convenient ways to solve them. Implementation of the model will be presented in the section 3. We'll use real market data and show clear demonstration of the scrutinized properties. At the end we'll verify how the model is significant when explaining the volatility of an asset.
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