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Lethal crossroads: The evolution of Taliban violence in response to counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan 2006-2021
Mccafferty, Sean ; Biagini, Erika (advisor) ; Aslan, Emil (referee) ; Kaczmarski, Marcin (referee)
Lethal Crossroads: The Evolution of Taliban Violence in Response to Counterinsurgency Strategies in Afghanistan 2006-2021. July 2022 Presented in partial fulfilment for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies Word Count: 21861 Date of Submission: 24/07/2022 Student Number Glasgow: 2188272M Dublin: 20109547 Prague: 19142078 Supervisor Dr Erika Biagini Abstract This thesis examines how the Taliban's use of the Improvised Explosive Device (IED) evolved in response to changing counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2021. The work aims to identify the role of state counterinsurgency strategies in affecting variation in IED use by insurgents. The evolution of methods of violence in Afghanistan has rarely been focused on. Yet, the Taliban's return to power in 2021 amid the withdrawal of the last coalition forces necessitates reflection on the conflict across academia and policy making. To investigate the evolution of the IED this research employs a longitudinal case study design applying qualitative research methodologies such as the constant comparative method to analyse three distinct phases of insurgent and counterinsurgent violent competition in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2021. An evolutionary theoretical framework outlined by Veilleux-Lepage...
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Unwelcome Chinese Economic, Political, and Military Influence: How Australia Serves as an Example in Combating Chinese Influence
Swindall, Molly ; Munro, Neil (advisor) ; Biagini, Erika (referee) ; Ludvík, Jan (referee)
Chinese engagement worldwide has increased significantly as the country has continued to grow. With increased engagement militarily, economically, politically, etc. concerns have increased surrounding Chinese foreign influence in other countries, particularly Western countries. While concerns are wide-ranging, this dissertation uses a qualitative case study to examine influence concerns in three key areas in Australia and what Australia is doing to combat these influence concerns. The areas are economics (investments), politics (interference through political donations), and military (concerns over Chinese activities in the Pacific). Australia was selected due to its precarious position of being strongly connected to China economically, with China being Australia's top two-way trading partner. Since China doesn't separate trade and politics, Australia stands to lose when limiting Chinese influence, but this hasn't stopped the country from responding. Australia has passed many laws, introduced new regulations, announced new initiatives, and blocked certain high-profile investments to limit influence and influence concerns. Additionally, Australia can serve as a model to other countries with similar concerns.
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Counterterrorism strategies as a consequence of terrorism: understanding United Kingdom's CONTEST 2018
Orozbakieva, Aizhan ; Aslan, Emil (advisor) ; Aliyev, Huseyn (referee) ; Biagini, Erika (referee)
The relative peace that the world citizens enjoy today keeps being sabotaged by forces that kill and injure innocent civilians via terrorist attacks. In recent times, a number of violent attacks took place between 2013 and 2017 in all parts of the world. The territories that have been affected the most are the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and Western Europe. While terrorism in the MENA region, for instance, was mostly carried out by local forces, in Western Europe it was either external powers or domestic perpetrators who have been indoctrinated by foreign radicals. Western European states started becoming more cautious and alert. As a consequence of terrorism, new counterterrorism strategies have been written and implemented. The following research project seeks to analyse and interpret the United Kingdom's counterterrorism strategy in order to understand the dynamics of the legitimisation of security- oriented policies. The UK has been selected as a case study because it has predominantly struggled with the phenomenon of Northern-Irish related terrorism, long before the infamous September 11th , 2001 attacks in the US. Post-2001, the UK has been mostly targeted by jihadi- inspired terrorism. In response to the growing threat, the country initiated and implemented strategies to reduce...
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Assessing the Digital Hegemony
Keyser, Daniel ; Vostal, Filip (advisor) ; Cheskin, Ammon (referee) ; Biagini, Erika (referee)
Assessing the Digital Hegemony Daniel Keyser Abstract This paper seeks to answer whether there exists a global superpower in regard to control of the internet. This position, drawing upon the historical and political science related position of Hegemon, is explored further through the concept of Hegemony and its related ideas to form both a theory, that of Digital Hegemony, and methodology to address the question in an empirical case study of the United States of America and the People's Republic of China. The empirical argument is based off of the amount of traffic generated by nationally based companies, the amount of control over internet based architecture and infrastructure globally, and the development of future technologies linked to the internet. The empirical findings of this paper conclude that the United States of America has control of the internet through amount of traffic generated, and amount of architecture and infrastructure globally owned by nationally based corporations, but that this Digital Hegemony is being challenged by the People's Republic of China, especially in regard to future technologies linked to the internet, arguing that the United States must increase its investment and development into these industries either by government back programs or its corporations to maintain the...
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Police Militarisation and its Implications for Policing and Crime Prevention in South Africa
Rains, Coleman Dunham ; Berg, Julie (advisor) ; Ludvík, Jan (referee) ; Biagini, Erika (referee)
The purpose of this study is to explore police militarisation, specifically in South Africa and its South African Police Service (SAPS) since their remilitarisation in 2010. The study utilises Peter Kraska's militarisation continuum as the framework to assess how the SAPS have, or have not, militarised since 2010. To conduct this research, this study is designed as an exploratory approach that utilises a case study, document and literature analysis, and secondary data set analysis as its methodologies. The findings reveal evidence of further militarisation of the SAPS according to the operational, organisational, and cultural indicators of Kraska's militarisation continuum. The findings of further militarisation, according to these indicators, include incongruity between South African government documents and what is put in practice regarding police militarisation and community policing; new and re-established paramilitary units; a weakened stance on the SAPS' use of lethal force and of the capabilities of independent oversight bodies; and an evolving strategy towards repeated, national-scale high-density militarised operations by the SAPS. These findings of further militarisation are accompanied by evidence of less militarisation according to the fourth metric of Kraska's continuum, the material...
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Financial Intelligence and Money Laundering: A Comparative Case Study of the UK and Brazil
Silveira, Louise Nathalie Vingert ; Butler, Eamonn (advisor) ; Erkomashvili, David (referee) ; Biagini, Erika (referee)
Financial Intelligence and Money Laundering: A Comparative Case Study of the UK and Brazil July 2020 Glasgow University Student ID: 2401161s DCU Student ID: 18114270 Charles University Student ID: 46010726 Louise Nathalie Vingert Silveira Presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies Word Count: 24,094 Supervisor: Dr. Eamonn Butler McIntosh Date of Submission: 29th July 2020 Abstract: Money Laundering (ML) offers criminals the means to hide their illicit proceeds allowing them to enjoy their profits or further reinvest in criminal activities. Financial intelligence provides a comprehensive and effective strategy to disrupt these criminal networks increasing security worldwide. To this purpose the use of Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs) are central in detecting suspicious transactions and providing law enforcement with useful intelligence. The international Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regime offers flexibility on the type of their institutional arrangement which have translated into four models by state practice. The aim of this dissertation is to explore this flexibility and question if the model adopted by a country influences its operations. A mix method approach consisting of document analysis and comparative...
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Examining the Internet Research Agency's Exploitation of Cognitive Biases Through its Disinformation Campaign Targeted at the US 2016 Presidential Election
Cannon, Casey ; Tesař, Jakub (advisor) ; Hardman, Helen (referee) ; Biagini, Erika (referee)
Numerous studies have been dedicated to the Kremlin-affiliated Internet Research Agency's (IRA) online disinformation effort dedicated at the US 2016 Presidential election. Research has confirmed that the effort involved a coordinated effort to influence the voting behaviour and sow discord amongst US citizens across social media networks. This paper differed from previous research in that it analysed the literature to evaluate if the IRA employed tactics designed to exploit specific cognitive processes including the vividness bias, availability heuristic, and confirmation bias. This research performs unique analysis for each bias by examining qualitatively how confirmation bias may have been exploited based on the IRA's network infiltration, performing quantitative analysis of the IRA tweet volume relative to a control dataset of humans and automated bot accounts during the pre-election period, and the vividness bias by employing a Sentiment Analysis to assess positive and negative sentiment in IRA tweets. Each bias is then evaluated in the context of Russian reflexive control doctrine and the greater IRA strategy. This paper finds that the IRA employed a savvy understanding of how cognition and social media network infrastructure influenced US users' behaviour and leveraged that knowledge to...
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Pakistani Foreign Fighters in Afghanistan, Kashmir and Syria: A Comparative Analysis of Drivers of Radicalization
Rani, Mehwish ; Bureš, Oldřich (advisor) ; Anceschi, Luca (referee) ; Biagini, Erika (referee)
This study compares the drivers of radicalization of Pakistani foreign fighters in Afghanistan, Kashmir and Syria. It tries to understand what unique drivers attract Pakistani foreign fighters to each of these conflict zones. It also examines the degree to which the existing literature on radicalization in general and foreign fighters in particular, mainly produced in a western context, can be used to understand the Pakistani foreign fighters. The study is based on twenty- two semi-structured interviews conducted with experts from police counter terrorism departments, journalists, researchers, senior officials from National Counter Terrorism Authority, and members of religious groups in Pakistan, which were then analysed to determine the relative significance of different drivers for Pakistani fighters travelling to Kashmir, Afghanistan, and Syria. The results show that many drivers that feature prominently in the existing radicalization literature, such as ideology, propaganda, and recruitment networks, are useful for explaining what draws Pakistani foreign fighters to particular conflicts. At the same time, however, the results of my analysis also identified several drivers that have not been highlighted in the Western literature on Muslim radicalization thus far, including geographical proximity...
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Black Swans in the Black Sea: Scenarios for the Future of NATO-Russia Relations in the Black Sea Region.
Wagner, Greta ; Kazharski, Aliaksei (advisor) ; Biagini, Erika (referee) ; Heuser, Beatrice (referee)
This research paper demonstrates the value of scenario analysis for the field of Security Studies, by developing an easy-to-replicate framework for "Intuitive Logics" scenario building and applying it to the case of NATO-Russia relations in the Black Sea region. While scenarios are frequently used as strategic management and planning tools in the corporate and public sector, they represent a relatively new addition to the methodological toolkit of Security Studies. Based on the example of the conflict between NATO and Russia in the Black Sea region, this paper shows how scenario analysis can foster a structured and multifaceted understanding of conflict constellations. To this end, this paper compiles a list of "drivers of change" and external forces that have the potential to impact NATO-Russia relations in the next ten to fifteen years, identifies the "critical uncertainties," and develops four different scenario narratives.
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Timely Expansion of the Security-Liberty Balance: Norm Diffusion and Convergence between the EU and UN in Counterterrorism Sanctions Regimes and the Impact of Kadi
Turcsan, Virag Imola ; Bureš, Oldřich (advisor) ; Aliyev, Huseyn (referee) ; Biagini, Erika (referee)
[Dissertation Title: Timely Expansion of the Security-Liberty Balance: Norm Diffusion and Convergence between the EU and UN in Counterterrorism Sanctions Regimes and the Impact of Kadi] [Submission Date: July 2020] [Glasgow Student Number: 2095315] [Dublin City Student Number: 18114741] [Charles Student Number: 87084963] [Student Name: Virag Imola Turcsan] Presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence, and Strategic Studies Word Count: 21990 Supervisor: Professor Oldrich Bures Date of Submission: 30.07.2020. Abstract The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks have significantly impacted the international community and its approach to counterterrorism. By prioritising security norms over those of human rights, the security-liberty balance was tipped towards security in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, resulting in long- term negative consequences for human rights and civil liberties. The United Nations and its Security Council (UNSC) was no exception to this trend and had enacted far-reaching measures within its targeted counterterrorism sanctions regimes that limited human rights guaranteed by international laws, conventions, and treaties. This thesis looks at the evolution of the UNSC targeted counterterrorism sanctions regimes from 1999...
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