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Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics
Rychalovska, Y. ; Slobodyan, Sergey ; Wouters, R.
The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey information improves the model forecast for inflation and for other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on an Adaptive Learning setup can exploit survey information more efficiently than their Rational Expectations counterparts. The resulting time-variation in the perceived inflation target, in inflation persistence, and in the sensitivity of inflation to various shocks provide a rich and consistent description of the joint dynamics of realized and expected inflation. Our framework produces a reasonable interpretation of the post-Covid inflation dynamics. Our learning model successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge.
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Financial skills and search in the mortgage market
Cota, Marta ; Šterc, Ante
Are households with low financial skills disadvantaged in the mortgage market? Using stochastic record linking, we construct a unique U.S. dataset encompassing a rich set of mortgage details and borrowers’ characteristics, including their objective financial literacy measure. We find that households with low financial literacy are up to 4% more likely to search less and lock in at 15-20 b.p. higher rates. Upon origination, unskilled borrowers face a 35-45% higher mortgage delinquency and end up with a 30% lower likelihood of refinancing. Overall, for a $100,000 loan, the potential losses from low financial literacy are more than $9,329 over the mortgage duration. To understand how financial education, more accessible mortgages, or mortgage rate changes affect households with low financial literacy, we formulate and calibrate a mortgage search model with heterogeneous search frictions and endogenous financial skills. Our model estimates show that search intensity and financial skill variations contribute to 55% and 10% of mortgage rate variations, respectively. We find that i) more accessible mortgages lead to a higher delinquency risk among low-skilled households, ii) financial education mitigates the adverse effects of increased accessibility, and iii) low mortgage rates favor high-skilled homeowners and, by reinforcing refinancing activity, deepen consumption differences across different financial skill levels.
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Rizika reformy doktorského studia
Grosman, Jiří ; Jurajda, Štěpán ; Münich, Daniel
Systém financování doktorského studia v České republice je dlouhodobě neefektivní. Dokončovaná reforma má za cíl efektivitu systému výrazně zvýšit. V tomto krátkém textu upozorňujeme na potenciální problémy spojené s rozdělováním veřejné finanční podpory doktorského studia mezi vysoké školy. Problematické by bylo rozdělování podpory založené dominantně na míře úspěšného dokončování studií. Alokace veřejné podpory doktorského studia by vedle opodstatněných národních oborových priorit měla zohledňovat výsledky hodnocení kvality vědy na vysokých školách a úspěšnost v kariérním umisťování absolventů.
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(Ne)zájem žáků o učitelskou profesi: mezinárodní srovnání
Federičová, Miroslava
Mnoho evropských zemí včetně Česka se v současnosti potýká s nedostatkem učitelů, těch kvalitních obzvlášť. Jedním z řešení je podpora učitelských profesních aspirací už u mladých během jejich studia na základní a střední škole. Tato studie empiricky mapuje učitelské aspirace v evropských zemích mezi 15letými žáky na základě dat z mezinárodního šetření PISA.
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Analýza příjmů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019
Janský, Petr ; Kolář, Daniel
Tato analýza srovnává plánované příjmy státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mapuje období, během něhož na českou ekonomiku a veřejné rozpočty silně dopadly jak důsledky několika zásadních krizí (koronavirus, napadení Ukrajiny a válka, energetická krize a inflační vlna), tak výrazné parametrické změny českého daňového systému. Rok 2019 lze považovat za poslední předkrizový a rok 2024 za první pokrizový, takže odpovídají ‘normálním časům‘ lépe než roky mezi nimi. Tato analýza svým pojetím navazuje na předchozí analýzu vývoje výdajů státního rozpočtu mezi roky 2019 a 2024 a obsahuje i stručnou syntézu zjištění o vývoji příjmů a výdajů.
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COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
Bičáková, Alena ; Jurajda, Štěpán
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.
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Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Kashkarov, Daniil ; Artemev, V.
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive occupations goes through middle-skilled routine occupations, with the majority going through a subset of routine cognitive occupations. We then argue that the decline in employment in routine cognitive occupations due to routine-biased technological change can negatively affect the chances of younger cohorts joining high-skilled occupations. To test this hypothesis, we develop a structural occupational choice model that endogenously generates realistic career paths and estimate it using PSID data and job ad data from three major US outlets covering the period from 1940 to 2000. Our estimations suggest that, on average, 6% of workers ending up in non-routine cognitive occupations use routine cognitive occupations as stepping stones that allow them to maintain and accumulate human capital and experience relevant for later employment in high-skilled occupations. A fall in employment opportunities in routine cognitive occupations over the period of the most intensive routine-biased technological change led to at least 1.37 million lost high-skilled workers who got stuck in less skilled occupations.
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Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
Alfaro-Ureña, A. ; Zacchia, Paolo
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of production network formation, we characterize the assumptions that enable a transformation of the multinomial logit likelihood function from which the seller fixed effects, which encode the seller marginal costs, vanish. This transformation conditions, for each subnetwork restricted to one supplier industry, on the out-degree of sellers (a sufficient statistic for the seller fixed effect) and the in-degree of buyers (which is pinned down by technology and by “make-or-buy” decisions). This approach delivers a consistent estimator for the effect of dyadic explanatory variables, which in our model are interpreted as matching frictions, on the supplier choice probability. The estimator is easy to implement and in Monte Carlo simulations it outperforms alternatives based on group fixed effects. In an empirical application about the effect of a major Costa Rican infrastructural project on firm-to-firm connections, our approach yields estimates typically much smaller in magnitude than those from naive multinomial logit.
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