Original title:
Modeling Rwanda
Authors:
Auda, O. ; Bečičková, H. ; Cincibuch, M. ; Čižmár, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kameník, O. ; Katreniaková, D. ; Kejak, Michal ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Machala, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Musil, K. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vávra, D. ; Vlček, J. ; Zemčík, Petr Document type: Research reports
Year:
2011
Language:
eng Abstract:
The report consists of four chapters. Chapter 1 assesses the historical performance of forecasts for Rwanda. Historical forecasts since January 2010 are compared with the actual data as well as with projections of other institutions. Chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model, its changes compared to the December 2009 version, and its properties captured by impulse-response functions and by variance decompositions of model’s variables in terms of the model shocks. Important is the part on the model-consistent interpretation of the recent economic Rwanda history. The section describing Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting concludes. Chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. On the contrary to Chapter 1, the forecasting power is assessed both in the sample as well as by using an out-of-thesample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison. The last chapter gives an overview of the considerable country database that has been compiled.
Keywords:
forecasting and policy analysis system; Rwanda Project no.: LF11018 (CEP) Funding provider: GA MŠk
Institution: Economics Institute AS ČR
(web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at the institute of the Academy of Sciences. Original record: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0232257