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Essays on Economics of Adaptive Learning and Imperfect Monitoring
Janjgava, Batlome ; Slobodyan, Sergey (vedoucí práce) ; McGough, Bruce (oponent) ; Kasa, Kenneth (oponent)
Tématem této dizertační práce je výběr rovnováhy v modelech s neúplnými a nedokonalými informacemi. Práce se skládá ze tří kapitol, z nichž první dvě zkoumají problémy firem s rozhodováním během strukturální nejistoty a nedokonalého monitorování. První kapitola, jejímž spoluautorem je Sergey Slobodyan, se zabývá trhem, na kterém dvě firmy soutěží nabíd- kou množství. Firmy si nejsou jisty parametry poptávky a musí je poznávat prostřednictvím cenových signálů. Přestože Cournotův výstup je v našem modelu Nashova rovnováha, identi- fikujeme nejen podmínky, za kterých může nastat spolupráce z důvodu poznávání, ale rovněž nalézáme endogenní cenový práh, který takovéto chování spouští. Ukazujeme, že spolupráce je pravděpodobnější na trzích s větší přesností šoků specifických pro firmu. V druhé kapitole se zabývám sociální efektivitou volného vstupu na trhy s homogenními produkty. Volný vstup je zpravidla vnímán jako žádoucí z důvodu společenského blahobytu, díky kterému jej tradičně uznává i ekonomická profese. Mnozí ekonomové však tento názor zpochybňují s ohledem na Cournotovův oligopol s fixními zřizovacími náklady, kdy rovnováha s volným vstupem vždy způsobuje nadměrný vstup na trhy s homogenními produkty, což je známo jako teorém nadměrného vstupu. V této kapitole znovu...
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Modeling Uganda
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Bečičková, H. ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, T. ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vlček, J.
The report has three chapters. The chapter 1 summarizes main features of the Ugandan economy relevant for building the FPAS. The chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model and its properties captured by decompositions of variances of the model’s variables in terms of the model shocks and by its impulse-response functions. The chapter also describes Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting. The chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed both in the sample as well as by using an out-of-the-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling South Africa
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the South African economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in South Africa through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Russia
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Russian economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Russia through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Myanmar
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model which lies at heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Myanmar economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Myanmar through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Moldova
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model which lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Moldovan economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Moldova through the lens of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Kyrgyzstan
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 - Introduction is concluded with a short description of Kyrgyz economy and some of the stylized facts. The report continues with two chapters. Chapter 2 describes the structural model which lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Kyrgyz economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Kyrgyzstan through the lenses of the model. Chapter 3 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Kazakhstan
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Baksa, D. ; Bečičková, Hana ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, Hynek ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lukáč, J. ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, Tomáš ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Remo, A. ; Szilágyi, K. ; Vlček, J.
The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Kazah economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Kazakhstan through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is as- sessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We con- clude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
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Modeling Rwanda
Auda, O. ; Bečičková, H. ; Cincibuch, M. ; Čižmár, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kameník, O. ; Katreniaková, D. ; Kejak, Michal ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Machala, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Musil, K. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vávra, D. ; Vlček, J. ; Zemčík, Petr
The report consists of four chapters. Chapter 1 assesses the historical performance of forecasts for Rwanda. Historical forecasts since January 2010 are compared with the actual data as well as with projections of other institutions. Chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model, its changes compared to the December 2009 version, and its properties captured by impulse-response functions and by variance decompositions of model’s variables in terms of the model shocks. Important is the part on the model-consistent interpretation of the recent economic Rwanda history. The section describing Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting concludes. Chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. On the contrary to Chapter 1, the forecasting power is assessed both in the sample as well as by using an out-of-thesample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison. The last chapter gives an overview of the considerable country database that has been compiled.
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Modeling Ethiopia
Auda, O. ; Bečičková, H. ; Cincibuch, M. ; Čižmár, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kameník, O. ; Katreniaková, D. ; Kejak, Michal ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Machala, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Musil, K. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vávra, D. ; Vlček, J. ; Zemčík, Petr
The report has three chapters. Chapter 1 summarizes the main features of the Ethiopian economy relevant for building the forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS). Chapter 2 presents the structural model, and near-term forecast models. Chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically.
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