Original title: Modeling Kenya
Authors: Auda, O. ; Bečičková, H. ; Cincibuch, M. ; Čižmár, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kameník, O. ; Katreniaková, D. ; Kejak, Michal ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Machala, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Musil, K. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vávra, D. ; Vlček, J. ; Zemčík, Petr
Document type: Research reports
Year: 2011
Language: eng
Abstract: The report has three chapters. Chapter 1 summarizes the main features of the Kenyan economy relevant for building the FPAS. Chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model and its properties captured by the decompositions of variances of the model’s variables in terms of the model shocks and by its impulse-response functions. This chapter also describes Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting. Chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed both in the sample and by using an out-of-the-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
Keywords: forecasting and policy analysis system; Kenya
Project no.: LF11018 (CEP)
Funding provider: GA MŠk

Institution: Economics Institute AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at the institute of the Academy of Sciences.
Original record: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0232221

Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-172541


The record appears in these collections:
Research > Institutes ASCR > Economics Institute
Reports > Research reports