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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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The tax system reduces motivation to return to work among mothers with young children: recommendations and evaluation
Šatava, Jiří
In the Czech Republic, the overall taxation of work, i.e individuals' income tax together with social security and health insurance contributions, places a heavy burden even on the relatively low earnings of so-called second earners in households, i.e. partners with lower earnings. These peoples' work activity is, however, generally very sensitive to the level of taxation. A large group of these earners is made up of mothers with young children. Mothers who are the second earner in their household are subject to a participation tax rate (PTR) up to 30 % higher than their partners, and yet a higher PTR results in lower motivation to work. Women with children and low earning potential are subjected to the highest PTRs in comparison with their partners.
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Awareness of women about nutrition problems such as breast cancer prevention
STAŇKOVÁ, Denisa
This thesis focuses on the awareness of women of the nutrition issue as the prevention of breast cancer. The aim of this thesis is to find out whether the women have enough information about nutrition and life style as the prevention of breast carcinoma, where they look for information, if they are interested in this issue and whether they consume food that could work as the prevention. Another goal is to detect possible differences in the attitude to the prevention between women without the potential risk and women with the increased risk, i.e. women over 45. Research questions were determined as follows: "What is the knowledge of women about the issues of nutrition as the prevention of breast cancer?", "What is the proportion of the food that has preventive effect on the rise of breast carcinoma and, on the contrary, the food that supports the tumour growth in the eating habits of women?", "Where do women get information on this issue?", "What is the difference in awareness and consumption of food between women without the potential risk and women with the increased risk, i.e. over 45. The thesis is divided into two parts, a theoretical and a practical one. In the theoretical part I focus on the breast anatomy, basic information on breast cancer and risk factors that are divided into influenceble ones and non-influenceble ones. In the most extensive part of my thesis focuses on the influenceble factors, that is nutrition and life style. I focus especially on nutriments, food and other life style factors that are most connected with breast cancer and have antitumour effects or, conversely, support the tumour growth. The practical part was made by means of a questionnaire which I placed on the Internet and handed out in the waiting room at the general practitioner. The questionnaire was anonymous with 34 questions of a closed and semi-enclosed type. Questions concerned nutrition and life style in relation to the risk of breast cancer and were devised to answer previously defined research questions. The questionnaire survey took place in January and February 2013. I acquired 105 filled in questionnaires from which I randomly chose 86 to obtain two numerously equal groups of women without the potential risk and with the increased risk, i.e. over 45. The result of the research part is that women do not have much information on the life style in connection with the breast cancer. Some respondents, while selecting food with preventive effect, were only guessing and often also marked food which was not related to the breast carcinoma at all. About one third of the respondents even believe that nutrition and other factors are not related to this disease at all. One third of the respondents also stated that they had no interest in learning more information on this issue. Women that have some information usually get it from the magazines and from the Internet. In terms of eating habits, the food of most respondents does not reach the needed quantity to have preventive effects. On the other hand, the food and drinks that support tumour growth do not occur on the menu of the respondents very often. While comparing answers of the women younger 45 and the older group of respondents, it was found out that the younger respondents showed greater unawareness of this issue. No significant differences were recorded in other questions. The results of the survey are graphically processed and evaluated in the final part of this thesis. I suppose this thesis is the contribution to clarifying the current situation of this issue. I believe that the topic of my thesis is up-to-date and that I managed to summarize the most significant information regarding this topic and fulfil the aims I set down. I would be very glad if my work led to the contemplation of this issue and subsequently to a more extensive propagation of the breast cancer prevention.
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Assesment of Ethiopian Monetary Policy: The Prospect of Inflation Targeting Using Monetary Var
Jehar, Mustofa Seid ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Šolc, Jan (referee)
This paper tries to assess the Ethiopian monetary policy, in order to investigate the prospect of inflation targeting. The paper starts by reviewing the literature on the evolution of Ethiopian monetary policy and Macroeconomy. This is followed, by the requirements of adopting inflation targeting and the practical experience of inflation targeting countries; finally the paper focuses on the requirement to have a stable and persistent relationship between the policy instrument and price level. Vector auto regression model with some monetary policy instrument and macroeconomic variables was used. To explore different transmission mechanism i have analyzed the Granger causality, impulse response, and Variance decomposition. Result showed that, there is a weak relationship among prices, interest rate and exchange rate channel. The paper, therefore, recommended it is not the right time to adopt the full-fledged inflation targeting. Rather, better try to adopt inflation targeting as an implicit policy.
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Arctic tundra dendrochronology
Lehejček, Jiří ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Monika, Monika (referee)
Historically unprecedented environmental change in the Arctic ecosystems is often given into the context of its past and possible future development. In the region where instrumental meteorological observations are scarce archives need to be investigated in order to address this issues. The comprehensive synthesis one of the archives: long-live circumpolar evergreen Juniperus communis L. shrub is presented here. 20 individuals from southwest Greenland were investigated at the cell anatomy level to understand the ecology of the species and unhide its potential for environmental and climate reconstructions. The findings are as follows:
i) Stop of exponential cross-sectional conduit-lumen widening with increasing age is in contrast with conduit-lumen nature of trees. This indicates that shrubs do not need to saturate their water and nutrient demands via traits of classical hydraulic conductivity law but rather developed different mechanisms. Extreme weather conditions result in prostrate growth form. However, different weather factors probably influence shrub growth differently: While snow and wind act mechanically (a), temperature influences the form of growth physiologically (b). a) So long as the young shrub stem has high resilience to bend back to an upright position after snow melt and so long as it can withstand the wind during the vegetation season it most likely grows upright and the conduit-lumens widen. b) Temperature, resp. freeze-thaw events are responsible for the shrubs preference of safety (finite size of conduit-lumens) over hydraulic efficiency, thus not allowing for more primary growth. All of these (and other) factors are apparently working together and the transition of vertical to more horizontal growth is gradual. As a consequence, the conduit-lumen sizes may not have to be further increased (due to ecophysiological restrictions possibly also must not) because water is no longer transported against gravity.
ii) Observed age/growth trend has to be taken into consideration for further employment of the wood anatomical parameter in paleoenvironmental studies. That is, shrub cell parameters can only be used for this purposes if correctly detrended. This allows for more accurate as well as longer reconstructions because youth trend was often neglected in reconstructions based on shrub annual-rings.
iii) The south-western Greenland Ice-Sheet (GrIS) melt rates reconstruction is presented for the whole 20th century. This part of GrIS is considered as the most active. According to the presented reconstruction current GrIS melt rates are not uncommon for the last century being comparable to first decades of 20th century. This finding is particularly important contribution to the debate on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Too high fresh water inputs into the Northern Atlantic from GrIS melting may slow down or even stop the AMOC which would result in more continental climate in Europe. Presented results indicate that this threshold lies higher than observed current melt rates of GrIS.
Fascinating Juniperus comunnis species has shown to be able to address many ecological as well as environmental open questions and due to its longevity and abundant distribution has a great potential to become an important player in the Arctic research.
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Population genetic analysis of Old Kladruber horse
Vostrá Vydrová, Hana ; Majzlík, Ivan (advisor) ; Karel, Karel (referee)
The Old Kladruber horse, along with the Lipizzaner horse, Andalusian horse and Lusitano horse, is of the original Italo-Spanish type. The Old Kladruber horse is kept in two colour varieties (grey and black). Because the population is closed, there is a concern about the loss of genetic variation. The genetic diversity and population structure were analysed in the Old Kladruber horse breed based on the pedigree information of animals that were registered in the Studbook to identify factors that may have affected the genetic variability of the breed. Pedigree records collected from 1729 to 2013 contained information on 7971 animals that were used in the analyses. The pedigree depth was up to 33 generations, with an average of 15.1 complete generations. The effective number of founders and ancestors contributing to the current genetic pool was 92.69 and 17.16, respectively. The average values of the inbreeding coefficient were as follows: 13% (with a maximum value of 29%) for the reference population (individuals that can currently take part in reproduction, n=612), 11% for the grey variety (with a maximum value of 25%) and 15% for the black variety (with a maximum value of 29%). The proportion of inbred animals was high (99%). The average rate of inbreeding in the reference population was 1%: 0.8% for the grey variety and 1.1% for the black variety, and the respective estimates of the effective population sizes were 52 for the reference population, 62 for the grey variety and 45 for the black variety. The estimated percentage of genetic diversity lost due to non-random mating within subpopulations and the reference population was 1.0, 1.0 and 1.2%, respectively. The total loss of genetic diversity in the reference population, in the grey variety and in the black variety was 11%, 13% and 17%, respectively.
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Information content in vocalization of guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus): individual distinction and recognition of predators
Baklová, Aneta ; Baranyiová, Eva (advisor) ; František, František (referee)
Guinea pigs represent domesticated precocious rodents which became common pets. From the first day after birth they are fully vocal. This thesis was devoted
to the vocalization of pups. The aim of the thesis was to 1) determine the age when the vocal individuality in whistle sound is demonstrable; 2) test possible ultrasonic signals emitted by young guinea pigs; 3) study the antipredator reactions and alarm calls to aerial (bird of prey) and terrestrial (dog) predators and human (control test).
A total of 16 guinea pig pups were tested for vocal individuality, 28 pups
for ultrasonic vocalization and 27 adolescents for predator recognition. When testing vocal ontogeny during the first 9 days after birth, I observed changes in temporal, frequency and parameter of intensity . When I test vocal individuality by cross-validated discriminant function analysis (DFA) based on ten acoustic parameters, calls were classified to correct animals with following success: day 1 = 71.9%, day 3 = 58.8%, day 5 = 53.10%, day 7 = 50.60% and day 9 = 63.10%. The highest frequency in whistle was 30.03 kHz. In predator discrimination reactions as freezing, fleeing and vigilance were observed. In the presence of dog, guinea pigs reacted for the longest time and most frequently by freezing. When confronted with a bird of prey, I observed for a longest time and most often fleeing and then freezing. When exposed to a human, guinea pigs showed mostly vigilance. Almost no vocalization was observed except for two events
of alarm calls - drrr as in the presence of dog and chirrup as reaction to bird of prey.
The following conclusions can be drawn from the presented results: 1) vocal individuality of guinea pigs is demonstrable immediately after birth and the rate
of individually different vocal parameters changes with age; 2) guinea pigs are able
to produce sound up to 30 kHz, i.e. within the ultrasound range, but signals of high frequencies are not crucial for their communication; 3) guinea pigs discriminate between terrestrial and aerial predators, but they emit alarm calls rather rarely.
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Freezing technology of bull sperm in relation to its survivability and fertilization ability
Doležalová, Martina ; Stádník, Luděk (advisor) ; Jiří, Jiří (referee)
The aim of optimalization the insemination doses production is to provide the highest fertilization ability of spermatozoa during the demanding proces of processing fresh semen and its subsequent cryopreservation. Temperature changes causes spermatozoa damage during the cooling and freezing. Spermatozoa is exposed to cold shock and many others limiting factors, which leads to cell death and therefore to decline of fertilization ability of thawed insemination doses. For increasing spermatozoa resistance, exactly the plasma membrane resistance against cold shock was fraction of egg yolk LDL cholesterol (low density lipoprotein) at various concentrations into the comercially produced diluents added. It is believed that LDL acts possitively to plasma membrane and helps to maintain the fertilization ability of spermatozoa after thawing. Following step in the proces of insemination doses production is slow cooling of diluted semen and equilibration, when the straws are store at cooling box for 30 minutes to 240 hours. This period is necessary to penetrate of certain diluent components into the spermatazoa also maintain the balance between their intracellular and extracellular concentration. Also important is subsequent freezing temperature gradient of insemination doses. The most suitable freezing method is based on computer controlled temperature decline in freezing chamber which allows the precise control of ice crystals formation that could tear and kill the cell.
During 2012 to 2016 was repeatedly collected semen from the group of breeding bulls (n = 27, Holstein and Czech Fleckvieh breed) at AI centre. Semen which fulfill the standard entrance conditions in first step was evenly into several parts divided. For dilution the three types of comercially diluents AndroMed, Bioxcell and Triladyl with and without LDL addition were used. Into the diluents AndroMed and Bioxcell the concentration of LDL 4 %, 6 % and 8% into the dilent Triladyl 6 %, 8 % and 10 % was added. Diluted semen was filled into the glass capillares with volume 0,1 ml and temperature +4 °C. Subsequently the sample was placed to cold bath (0°C) for 10 minutes. Then the volume of capillare with physiological solution (37 °C) was mixed and for next 120 minutes was incubate. The effect of cold shock to proportion of live spermatozoa was evaluated by using Eosin and Nigrosine staining technique during heat test of spermatozoa survivability after spermatozoa heating and after 120 minutes of incubation.
The more suitable semen diluents which provide the higher spermatozoa resistance against cold shock were AndroMed and Bioxcell. Together the possitive effect of LDL addition into the diluents to lower decrease of proportion of live spermatozoa during heat test was found (P<0.05). The most suitable LDL concentration which had a favorable influence at spermatozoa resistance against cold shock was 6 % in diluent Bioxcell. Values of the proportion of live sperm were higher at the beginning of the heat test (+1.31% to + 3.2%) and after 120 minute incubation (+5.82% to +8.41%) compared to other diluents with and without addition of LDL.
In the next step the process of equilibration was optimized, is an important part of insemination doses production. The effect of the length of equilibration for subsequent fertilization ability of spermatozoa was evaluated using spermatozoa motility based of CASA and proportion of live spermatozoa after thawing and during heat survival test lasting 120 minutes (37 ° C). Suitable semen was diluted by comercially used diluent AndroMed based on soya lecithin, filled into the straws (0.25 ml), cooled and equilibrated in cooling box for 30, 120 and 240 minutes and freezed in programmable freezing box applying four types of freezing curves differing in temperature rate decline. There was used standard and by producer recommended 3. phase freezing curve, then 2. phase freezing curve, and 3. phase freezing curve with slower as well as rapid decline of temperature rate in freezing chamber, compared with standard freezing curve. The highest spermatozoa motility was found using 240 minutes of equilibration by +2.72% and +4.58% compared to other lengths of equilibration (P <0.05 to 0.01). The highest proportion of live spermatozoa was found using 120 minutes of equilibration (+6.87 % and +8.68 %). The highest average spermatozoa motility during heat test after thawing was achieved by using 2. phase freezing curve (from +2.97% to +10.37%, P <0.05), also in the proportion of live spermatozoa (from + 4.37% to +8.82%, P <0.01). When evaluating interaction between the length of equilibration and freezing curve (standard 3. phase and 2 . phase freezing curve), the highest average spermatozoa motility and proportion of live spermatozoa using 240 minutes of equilibration by both freezing curves was reached, there was no statistically significant differences. As well as, in all evaluated parts of this study the individual differences between ejaculate of bulls and within semen from one bull (P <0.05) as secondary effect were found.
To maintain good fertilization ability of semen during cryopreservation is necessary to increase the spermatozoa resistance against cold shock using addition of correct concentration of LDL into the commercially used diluents AndroMed and Bioxcell. Subsequently the fertilization ability of insemination dose is influenced by cooling, the length of equilibration and freezing. The length of equilibration 120 minutes and more as well as gentle way of freezing according to freezing curve, which ensures a gradual decrease of temperature in freezing chamber provided the higher average spermatozoa motility and proportion of live spermatozoa.
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