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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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Decision making of Prague moviegoers
Macháček, Ivan ; Hanzlík, Jan (advisor) ; Zelený, Martin (referee)
The aim of this work is to analyze attitudes of Prague film viewers towards watching films at the cinema and at home and to find out on what factors do they base their decision to watch a particular film. The means to achieve this goal are research of existing literature related to this subject and my own research through a questionnaire survey on a sample population of Prague with a corresponding demographic composition. The most crucial conclusions from this investigation are related to the frequency of watching movies in the cinema and at home, attitudes towards the origin and localization of movies, attitudes towards various genres, factors influencing the choice of a film and comparing the results of various demographic groups (by gender, age and education) within these topics.
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Řízení IS/ICT se zaměřením na sourcing služeb informačního systému
Šebesta, Michal ; Voříšek, Jiří (advisor) ; Havlíček, Zdeněk (referee) ; Příklenk, Oldřich (referee) ; Král, Jaroslav (referee)
Research on outsourcing has been around for several decades, while recent evolution in the information systems discipline towards ICT service commoditization significantly changes the context of decision-making. Services that are available on-demand via the Internet allow organizations implementing functions they demand in a fraction of time. This trend represents a chance for organizations seeking to use advanced ICT services without a need of major investments. Problem is the current lack of guidelines and tools for managing ICT services and their outsourcing. Given the trends on the ICT service market, it is expected that much of the IT management in the future will encompass the ICT services and utilize service-level structures. Methods currently available are either too broad or encompass only small part of the whole problem. Ad-hoc or unsound decisions in this area might cause major complications in terms of quality, usability, integration, and consequently influence total cost of organizational IT. Organizations need to either revise existing models or propose and implement completely new models to manage their IS/ICT. This thesis deals with the management of IS/ICT with focus on the ICT services outsourcing. It discusses available sourcing models in the literature and links them to the various interconnected areas. Based on these areas, it presents an integrated view on IT outsourcing strategies. Most importantly the thesis proposes an original concept for decision-making about outsourcing of ICT services named the SOURCER framework. This approach utilizes the presented outsourcing strategies, and introduces a complex methodology and decision-making criteria that will assist organizations with selection of ICT services in order to maintain and manage a most suitable ICT service portfolio. The decision-making is based on four essential viewpoints: function, costs, time, and quality. These viewpoints are discussed, individually analyzed, and serve as a basis for further research. The whole framework is developed and validated according to Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM). Individual components are evaluated using a survey among a group of selected IT managers. Proof of concept is then established by a case study on framework use in a real organization. This case study covers strategy specification, business--IT alignment, specifying service architecture and its interconnections, outsourcing, and management of the ICT service portfolio.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Phishing in the gaming industry
Nguyen Van, Thanh ; Luc, Ladislav (advisor) ; Veber, Jaromír (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with a currently major issue of cyber security, which is phishing. The study is also specific in that it is focused on the gaming industry, which is subjected to a detailed analysis. The first goal of thesis is to acquaint the reader with problems of security risks of phishing in general and in game related fields. To achieve this goal, in the introduction of the theoretical part of the work, the general problem of phishing with a view on historical development and expansion is presented. Furthermore is described topic of gaming industry, its trends of videogames and security risks of online trading. The second goal is to give future and existing Steam users an overview of common phish-ing attacks and countermeasures. To achieve this goal, in the analytical part of the work, a specific gaming platform in online trading and distribution of game is selected, Steam from Valve. In the practical part of the work, eight selected phishing attacks are conducted to brief analysis and completed into a final evaluation and countermesures of all attacks.
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Analysis, design and implementation of CRM solutions for selected company
Ilavský, Dávid ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Šedivá, Zuzana (referee)
Bachelor thesis focuses on the area of information systems, which are used to support customer relationship management in companies. The main objective of this work is to provide a sample of solution for CRM system implementation for real customer from the banking sector. The first part defines basic functional areas of any CRM application. Each of these areas is described in more detail in terms of its primary use and tasks that within the CRM as a whole performs. Further is described the analytical area of CRM application (or Customer Intelligence), which is gradually playing a key role in the entire CRM system in past few years. It includes its potential uses in various fields. At the end of the theoretical part, the author compares the fundamental differences between cloud model of deployment and traditional on-premise solution. The practical part focuses on the main objective of the thesis and description of the supplied solution in the form of a module, which extends the existing CRM application with the option for business partners registration of Hypoteční banka, a. s. and ČSOB Pojišťovna, centralized in one system. The requirement is build in Microsoft Dynamics CRM 2011 and as the source system it is used CRM system of Hypoteční banka, a. s..
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Zjednodušení kvantových obvodů pro modulární umocňování
Fišer, Petr ; Ivánek, Jiří (advisor) ; Nentvich, Libor (referee)
This thesis is based on top of the previous thesis "Security of modern encryption protocols" where we introduced a new paradigm for constructing quantum circuits. We have built circuits for modular arithmetic (addition, multiplication and exponentiation) in order to break El-Gamal asymmetric cryptosystem. Current thesis reviews all proposed circuits and discusses possibilities of their further optimization in goal of lowering the number of used qbits at least by an order of magnitude. It also shows that this is not possible due to existence of COPY gates which make the design inherently unoptimizable. Getting rid of COPY gates is, however, not possible without substantial rewrite of the whole paradigm. The overall estimate of number of qbits used in circuits thus remains O(log(m)log^2(N)) where m is a processed number and N is a modulus. The thesis also proposes optimization of the modular multiplication circuit that, if issues with COPY gates are resolved, allows us to lower the number of used qbits by about O(log(m)) at the price of a longer execution time.
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CRM System Optimization
Fučík, Ivan ; Mildeová, Stanislava (advisor)
This thesis is focused on CRM solutions in small and medium-sized organizations with respect to the quality of their customer relationship. The main goal of this work is to design an optimal CRM solution in the environment of real organization. To achieve this goal it is necessary to understand the theoretical basis of several topics, such as organizations and their relationship with customers, CRM systems, their features and trends. On the basis of these theoretical topics it is possible to analyze current CRM solution in the organization. From the data obtained by the methods of observation and controlled interview it was possible to prepare a design for optimal CRM solution. This optimal solution comes also from user and organization requirements. The optimal CRM solution saves time and costs associated with current CRM solution and replaces existing and ineffective CRM tools.
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Marketing strategy of the company 3M in social media
Němec, Tomáš ; Halík, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Luňáčková, Michaela (referee)
Diploma thesis focus on social media as a phenomenon of modern times and their use in a marketing. I will introduce four most frequently used social media - Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and YouTube as well as an outline the possibility of their use in marketing. Marketing strategy in social media I decided to introduce through a concrete example - an international company 3M. This company I chose mainly because it operates in the market of industrial products, where online marketing is not as much used and also because it cooperates with University of Economics. After introducing the basic marketing theories and explanations of basic terms I will analyze an existing 3M marketing strategy in social media and on the basis of the analysis and obtained data I will suggest my own possible marketing strategy for the company 3M, which connects all the aforementioned social media.
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