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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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The impact of the economic cycle to finance the defense of the Czech republic in years 2004-2014
Heres, Ondřej ; Chmelová, Pavla (advisor) ; Strejček, Ivo (referee)
This bachelor work examines the impact of economic performance on financing the defense sector in the Czech Republic in the years 2004-2014. The main questions are whether this influence is clear and the extent to which is essential for funding this sector. The work also provides a basic overview about development and structure of the Ministry of Defence budget in these years. The theoretical part contains theories of business cycle and public sector and briefly introduces the basic institutions that are tasked to provide a defense. The analytic part analyzes the expenditures and revenues of the Ministry of Defence and assesses their mutual influence and simultaneously the influence of GDP on these indicators. To compare with previous findings, the GPD growth rate and the growth rate of defense expenditures in selected countries of NATO are analyzed in brief in the last chapter. While findings based on data from the Ministry of Defence have rather anticyclical development of defense expenditures, in selected countries of NATO, the development is more procyclical. It highlights the very ambiguous impact of the economic cycle on expenditures in the defense sector.
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Transport of Dangerous Substances in the Czech Republic
VANDAS, David
The topic of the diploma written assignment is "Transport of Dangerous Substances in the Czech Republic" and it was chosen for elaboration of the wholesome view on the road, train, ship and plane transportation of the hazardous materials and mixtures. These transportations represent a possible risk of damage to life, health, property or environment for the society. Hazardous materials and mixtures nowadays are being transported in large measures and there is an assumption in the future that the volume of the transported hazardous materials and mixtures will increase. For elaboration of this written assignment three hypothesis were given: a) Legal regulations of the European Union and the Czech Republic solve the problematic of the transportation of hazardous materials and mixtures well enough. b) The public has enough information about the transportation of the hazardous chemical substances or mixtures. c) People that work in the field of the transportation of hazardous materials or mixtures are well informed about the transportation of hazardous chemical substances or mixtures. For determining whether the legal regulations solve the problematic of the transportation of hazardous materials and mixtures well enough the literary sources which deal with this issue, legal regulations of the Czech Republic and the European Union and other international agreements were used. After working through these sources it was found out that the international, the EU and Czech legal regulations or agreements solve this issue well enough and emphasis is given on convergence of legal regulations of all transportations. Implementation of international agreements and legal regulations of the European Union into the legal regulations of the Czech Republic happens in the present time very fast and without failures. For figuring out the awareness of the public and awareness of the people working in the field of the transportation of hazardous materials and mixtures for the diploma written assignment on the topic of "The Transportation of Hazardous Materials and Mixtures on the Territory of the Czech Republic" there was a quantitative research made. The quantitative research was made with the help of handed out questionnaires. The public was represented by the employees of the Regional Municipalities of the Czech Republic. Both of the groups were given the same questionnaires. The results of the questionnaire research were evaluated, expressed in percentage and statistically assessed. For the statistical assessment the double selection T-test was used to find out whether the difference between the assessed groups is statistically important. People working in the transportation of hazardous substances and mixtures have sufficient information which was confirmed by the questionnaire research. By the made statistical assessment it was found out that the difference between the groups is statistically significant and so the public does not have sufficient information related to the transportation of hazardous substances and mixtures. Due to the results of the questionnaire research and mainly that the hypothesis b) - The public has enough information about the transportation of hazardous chemical substances or mixtures was not confirmed. In the conclusion of the written assignment there are a couple of suggestions for improvement of the awareness of the public. For example as a part of education at primary and high schools and training schools where this education is already running as a part of The Protection of Human during Incidents. This education has been going on since 2003. And that is why the older people in the public are not well met with this issue and they should be introduced to it by for example a media campaign by means of short TV spots on public television channels or by means of spots that already the Independent BESIP Department of the Ministry of Transportation makes up. These spots are called Besipky.
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Civil emergency planning in Czech republic and its developement and role within North Atlantic Treaty Organization
POPELÁŘ, Ondřej
The presented Thesis deals with Civil Emergency Planning (CEP) in the Czech Republic and its evolution and role within the Alliance. The theoretical section of the main body focuses on CEP at NATO and Czech national levels. In relation to NATO, this Thesis explains the concept of CEP, its origin and evolution within the Alliance. It describes the course of CEP development as NATO strategy concepts, priorities and CEP aims changed over the time due to changes in political situation. The important point to understand the whole issue is the depiction of tasks to be met by CEP within the Alliance, and the Ministerial Guidance being the primary CEP related document. Five basic tasks applicable from the very first edition of the Ministerial Guidance till now have been described in detail. An integral part of the NATO CEP is the visualisation of the organisational structure which is necessary for understanding the practical portion. The other section of the main body focuses on CEP as designed for the Czech Republic. At this level, the CEP is a methodological tool for management of incident and crisis planning guaranteeing their interaction and preventing duplicities with defence planning. It defines CEP´s areas of interest and it depicts legislative and institutional support. The practical portion is mainly focusing on meeting basic tasks by individual responsible entities working within four basic planning groups. To get the best possible view of tasks fulfilled based on the Ministerial Guidance, the following method has been chosen: main tasks defined by the Ministerial Guidance have been divided into three main parts in compliance with the task categories of the Ministerial Guidance. The tasks are coped with within the four planning groups. The planning groups are then assigned to ministries that are the responsible entities in terms of the Czech Republic. The result is a clear picture showing main tasks of public administration central bodies, and how these tasks are met within the Alliance plus their translation into the terms and conditions of the Czech Republic. The system also shows the history of each task depicting its conclusion or processing in which case it is transferred into the period of the next Ministerial, now Political, Guidance. The discussion analyses the issue of task fulfilment and importance of financial support to the CEP. The discussion concludes highlighting the necessity of interconnection between the national and NATO levels. This is ensured via permanent representatives in CEPC and representatives in individual planning groups. An example of some member nations shows, how the communication between CEP representatives works (or does not work) at various levels. The end of this Thesis evaluates legislative and institutional CEP interlinking of the Czech Republic and NATO. Unlike the institutional interlink, the legislative interlink is insufficient. The system of interlinking underlines the important role of the permanent representative in CEPC and representatives in planning groups. The main part of conclusion is dedicated to the facts resulting from outcomes and discussion giving clue whether the aims of this Thesis have been reached. The system, how the Czech CEP is working, has been found very efficient even in comparison with long-term members like Great Britain or France. Despite its clear quality and efficiency, it would be desirable to integrate the CEP into the legal system of the Czech Republic and thus to achieve its self-contained legal form. This change would not impact the work itself, but it could add to CEP´s political importance. At the end, a positive response is given to the research question evaluating whether the current status of CEP functioning in the Czech Republic is covering the needs of NATO.
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Makroekonomický dopad mateřské (a rodičovské) dovolené ve srovnání České Republiky s Brazílií
Kalkusová, Marie ; De Castro, Tereza (advisor) ; Neumann, Pavel (referee)
This thesis aims to estimate the macroeconomic impact of maternity and parental/paternal leave in the Czech Republic and Brazil. In addition, the thesis stresses out the costs of Czech model application to Brazil and vice-versa. The first chapter brings a theoretical framework. It compares the analyzed policies in both countries and introduces the relevant terms. The second chapter estimates the costs of maternity and parental/paternal leave related to public expenditure and GDP for the years 2005-2014 and brings own simulation model for Czech model application to Brazil and vice-versa. The third chapter analyses the inefficiencies and suggest possible mitigation. The results show the costs of 0.71% of GDP and 1.66% of public expenditure in the Czech Republic and 0.50% GDP and 2.27% of public expenditure in Brazil in 2014. The Czech model applied in Brazil would be very costly and the opposite scenario would lead to the decrease of macroeconomic burden in the Czech Republic. The thesis also analyzes the influence of maternal and parental leave in other areas, such as labor market, where the current structure may penalize Czech women in long term. By this analysis, the thesis contributes to the current debate about the impact, the length and costs of maternity and parental leave.
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Možnosti využití sociálních sítí pro podporu podnikání v autoservisech
Mischaniuk, Mykhailo ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Gála, Libor (referee)
The diploma thesis deals with the problem of using social networks in the field of car repair services. The primary aim is to provide the recommendations for businesses in a structured way on how to better utilize these networks to get better competitiveness. This work is divided into three parts. The first theoretical part deals with basic description of networks and their statistics. This part also covers some basic tools that we can use to analyze and maintain social network platforms. The second analytical part deals with competitive analysis in car repair services and gives an overview of the most popular Runet social network platforms. The third practical part provides structured view on all important aspects of social platform maintenance and behaviour. In this section, you can find the description of various views and the recommendations I give to the specific car repair service.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Analysis of readiness of the Czech Republic for entry into the Eurozone
Skála, Martin ; Pavelka, Tomáš (advisor) ; Krameš, Jaroslav (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyze readiness of the Czech Republic for accession to the European Monetary Union. Although we celebrated 12th anniversary of our membership in the European Union, the Czech government still has not set a date of entrance to the Eurozone. The theoretical part of my thesis focuses on analysis of fulfillment of Maastricht criteria, which had to be fulfilled by each candidate country for membership in the currency union. In the practical part of this thesis I will evaluate the macroeconomics impacts of adapting the common European currency in new member countries. In conclusion, I will try to outline benefits and costs of membership of the Czech Republic in the Eurozone.
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Creation of the Enterprise Architecture model according to the TOGAF framework
Čapek, Jan ; Doucek, Petr (advisor) ; Zeman, Petr (referee)
The present diploma thesis aims at introducing the Enterprise Architecture and creating an abstract model of a company. The primary focus is on application and process layers as defined in the architecture framework TOGAF. The thesis is divided into theoretical and practical part. The theoretical chapter starts with a business model analysis which means to describe mission vision and companys values as a part of the strategy framework. Furthermore the business processes are described in the latter part of this section. This chapter attempts to explain how to map a business process and to categorize it by nature and maturity level. Penultimate chapter introduces the Enterprise Architecture in general. This section includes arguments as to why the companies should be concerned with the Enterprise Architecture advantages of the Enterprise Architecture implementation into the companys documentation relationship of companys core business and IT and examples of the Enterprise Architecture frameworks. The last chapter deals with the TOGAF framework where Architecture Development Method is described. This means how Enterprise Architecture model is created and how to implement changes into the layers according to the TOGAF framework. Simultaneously the last section of this chapter describes the reference models which provide graphical overview of all abstractions layers. The practical part of the thesis elaborates on the theoretical part using the Architecture Development Method process in order to create the Enterprise Architecture model according to TOGAF framework. Same as the theoretical part it only focuses on the application and process layer. Firstly the business model is decomposed into vision mission and companys values to the companys strategy and business goals in order to grasp further understanding of business processes detailed description. Subsequently the abovementioned aspects are recomposed to create process map which provides the management overview. The application layer undergoes the same process; nonetheless the process map is replaced by information system description and reference model creation. Once the models are created the thesis compares them with the business and strategic goals. The benefit brought by this thesis is critical evaluation of current status to propose changes to achieve target architacture according business and strategic goals established by management.
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