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Sovereign country rating
Németh, Márian ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Halás, Vladimír (referee)
Sovereign rating has become a topic of major concern for the international financial community over the last two decades. This paper models ratings as combination of two factors ? hard and soft factors. Economical factors are the hard factors whit there statistical background. The political factors are the soft ones. It is very disturbing that the soft factors are playing a major roll in the rating agencies analysis. I found out that there isn?t any problems with the economical factors in the sovereign rating process, but in the case of political factors there are some major problems. Questionnaires and subjective answers in them may cause a falls sovereign rating process result. The cooperation between the regulative organs and the rating agencies may result in the future the losing of creditability for the sovereign country rating. Another concern is the lack of competition on the rating market with only two global rating agencies occupying 80 % of the entire market. These fakts are calling for a change in the sovereign rating markets.
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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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Influence of social politics on fertility rate in specific regions of Czech republic
Dvořák, Josef ; Melzochová, Jitka (advisor) ; Babin, Jan (referee)
Thesis is focused on relationship between fertility rate and tools of state support. The goal is to reveal relationship between these two factors. Partial goal is to discover specific effects of tools of state support in specific regions of Czech republic. I have aimed on research at national level and also specific regions between years 1993-2014. In order to find these relationships I used method that compares differences in development of the fertility rate. After that, I set up regression model solved by method called fixed effects. For specific regions analysis was used OLS method. Model was able to explain more than 80 % of variability. This results can be used for predicting of citizens behavior, when some changes in family allowances occurs. Main finding is, that most motivating tools are parenting allowances and child benefits.
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The possibilities of influencing walking stereotypes with botulinum toxin
Kolářová, Edita ; Angerová, Yvona (advisor) ; Pochylová, Barbora (referee)
Title: The possibilities of influencing walking stereotypes with botulinum toxin Abstract: The thesis is focused on finding opportunities to influence the walking stereotype of patients suffering from spasticity of the lower limbs by botulinum toxin. The aim of thesis is to compare the quality of walking stereotype of these patients before and after the application of botulinum toxin by using a standardized test intended to evaluate the walk and based on the results to evaluate the effect of botulinum toxin on the walking stereotype. While reading the theoretical part the reader is familiar with the basic concepts related to the problems such as spasticity, botulinum toxin and walking stereotype. The scales evaluating the muscle tone are subsequently described (The Modified Ashworth scale, The Tardieu Scale) and of course the scales evaluating the walking stereotype are also mentioned (Rancho Los Amigos Gait Analysis Form, Gait Assessment Rating Scale, Rivermead Visual Gait Assessment, Tinetti Balance And Gait Evaluation). Scales evaluating the walking stereotype are also described in detail at thesis, their pros and cons are highlighted and upon the preferences of the author, one of these scales is selected to be applied in the practical part. The practical part is composed of case studies of two patients...
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Development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic between 2006-2016
Ditrichová, Gabriela ; Strejček, Ivo (advisor) ; Klement, Josef (referee)
This bachelor's thesis is focused on the development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic in the decade between 2006 and 2016. A strong economic growth between 2006 and 2007, which had positive effects in the mortgage loan market, was followed by a deep slump in the form of global financial crisis unleashed by speculations in the real estate market in the U.S. The main aim of the work is based on the development of mortgage interest rates and the significant factors that affect their amount - to verify or disprove the hypothesis that interest rates respond to changes of these factors. The results confirm the hypothesis only in certain areas. The influence of changes of interest rates has been proven in the case of inflation and discount rates by usage of the econometric model. Factors that have not shown a significant direct influence of interest rates may have an indirect influence on their change.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Arctic tundra dendrochronology
Lehejček, Jiří ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Monika, Monika (referee)
Historically unprecedented environmental change in the Arctic ecosystems is often given into the context of its past and possible future development. In the region where instrumental meteorological observations are scarce archives need to be investigated in order to address this issues. The comprehensive synthesis one of the archives: long-live circumpolar evergreen Juniperus communis L. shrub is presented here. 20 individuals from southwest Greenland were investigated at the cell anatomy level to understand the ecology of the species and unhide its potential for environmental and climate reconstructions. The findings are as follows:
i) Stop of exponential cross-sectional conduit-lumen widening with increasing age is in contrast with conduit-lumen nature of trees. This indicates that shrubs do not need to saturate their water and nutrient demands via traits of classical hydraulic conductivity law but rather developed different mechanisms. Extreme weather conditions result in prostrate growth form. However, different weather factors probably influence shrub growth differently: While snow and wind act mechanically (a), temperature influences the form of growth physiologically (b). a) So long as the young shrub stem has high resilience to bend back to an upright position after snow melt and so long as it can withstand the wind during the vegetation season it most likely grows upright and the conduit-lumens widen. b) Temperature, resp. freeze-thaw events are responsible for the shrubs preference of safety (finite size of conduit-lumens) over hydraulic efficiency, thus not allowing for more primary growth. All of these (and other) factors are apparently working together and the transition of vertical to more horizontal growth is gradual. As a consequence, the conduit-lumen sizes may not have to be further increased (due to ecophysiological restrictions possibly also must not) because water is no longer transported against gravity.
ii) Observed age/growth trend has to be taken into consideration for further employment of the wood anatomical parameter in paleoenvironmental studies. That is, shrub cell parameters can only be used for this purposes if correctly detrended. This allows for more accurate as well as longer reconstructions because youth trend was often neglected in reconstructions based on shrub annual-rings.
iii) The south-western Greenland Ice-Sheet (GrIS) melt rates reconstruction is presented for the whole 20th century. This part of GrIS is considered as the most active. According to the presented reconstruction current GrIS melt rates are not uncommon for the last century being comparable to first decades of 20th century. This finding is particularly important contribution to the debate on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Too high fresh water inputs into the Northern Atlantic from GrIS melting may slow down or even stop the AMOC which would result in more continental climate in Europe. Presented results indicate that this threshold lies higher than observed current melt rates of GrIS.
Fascinating Juniperus comunnis species has shown to be able to address many ecological as well as environmental open questions and due to its longevity and abundant distribution has a great potential to become an important player in the Arctic research.
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Freezing technology of bull sperm in relation to its survivability and fertilization ability
Doležalová, Martina ; Stádník, Luděk (advisor) ; Jiří, Jiří (referee)
The aim of optimalization the insemination doses production is to provide the highest fertilization ability of spermatozoa during the demanding proces of processing fresh semen and its subsequent cryopreservation. Temperature changes causes spermatozoa damage during the cooling and freezing. Spermatozoa is exposed to cold shock and many others limiting factors, which leads to cell death and therefore to decline of fertilization ability of thawed insemination doses. For increasing spermatozoa resistance, exactly the plasma membrane resistance against cold shock was fraction of egg yolk LDL cholesterol (low density lipoprotein) at various concentrations into the comercially produced diluents added. It is believed that LDL acts possitively to plasma membrane and helps to maintain the fertilization ability of spermatozoa after thawing. Following step in the proces of insemination doses production is slow cooling of diluted semen and equilibration, when the straws are store at cooling box for 30 minutes to 240 hours. This period is necessary to penetrate of certain diluent components into the spermatazoa also maintain the balance between their intracellular and extracellular concentration. Also important is subsequent freezing temperature gradient of insemination doses. The most suitable freezing method is based on computer controlled temperature decline in freezing chamber which allows the precise control of ice crystals formation that could tear and kill the cell.
During 2012 to 2016 was repeatedly collected semen from the group of breeding bulls (n = 27, Holstein and Czech Fleckvieh breed) at AI centre. Semen which fulfill the standard entrance conditions in first step was evenly into several parts divided. For dilution the three types of comercially diluents AndroMed, Bioxcell and Triladyl with and without LDL addition were used. Into the diluents AndroMed and Bioxcell the concentration of LDL 4 %, 6 % and 8% into the dilent Triladyl 6 %, 8 % and 10 % was added. Diluted semen was filled into the glass capillares with volume 0,1 ml and temperature +4 °C. Subsequently the sample was placed to cold bath (0°C) for 10 minutes. Then the volume of capillare with physiological solution (37 °C) was mixed and for next 120 minutes was incubate. The effect of cold shock to proportion of live spermatozoa was evaluated by using Eosin and Nigrosine staining technique during heat test of spermatozoa survivability after spermatozoa heating and after 120 minutes of incubation.
The more suitable semen diluents which provide the higher spermatozoa resistance against cold shock were AndroMed and Bioxcell. Together the possitive effect of LDL addition into the diluents to lower decrease of proportion of live spermatozoa during heat test was found (P<0.05). The most suitable LDL concentration which had a favorable influence at spermatozoa resistance against cold shock was 6 % in diluent Bioxcell. Values of the proportion of live sperm were higher at the beginning of the heat test (+1.31% to + 3.2%) and after 120 minute incubation (+5.82% to +8.41%) compared to other diluents with and without addition of LDL.
In the next step the process of equilibration was optimized, is an important part of insemination doses production. The effect of the length of equilibration for subsequent fertilization ability of spermatozoa was evaluated using spermatozoa motility based of CASA and proportion of live spermatozoa after thawing and during heat survival test lasting 120 minutes (37 ° C). Suitable semen was diluted by comercially used diluent AndroMed based on soya lecithin, filled into the straws (0.25 ml), cooled and equilibrated in cooling box for 30, 120 and 240 minutes and freezed in programmable freezing box applying four types of freezing curves differing in temperature rate decline. There was used standard and by producer recommended 3. phase freezing curve, then 2. phase freezing curve, and 3. phase freezing curve with slower as well as rapid decline of temperature rate in freezing chamber, compared with standard freezing curve. The highest spermatozoa motility was found using 240 minutes of equilibration by +2.72% and +4.58% compared to other lengths of equilibration (P <0.05 to 0.01). The highest proportion of live spermatozoa was found using 120 minutes of equilibration (+6.87 % and +8.68 %). The highest average spermatozoa motility during heat test after thawing was achieved by using 2. phase freezing curve (from +2.97% to +10.37%, P <0.05), also in the proportion of live spermatozoa (from + 4.37% to +8.82%, P <0.01). When evaluating interaction between the length of equilibration and freezing curve (standard 3. phase and 2 . phase freezing curve), the highest average spermatozoa motility and proportion of live spermatozoa using 240 minutes of equilibration by both freezing curves was reached, there was no statistically significant differences. As well as, in all evaluated parts of this study the individual differences between ejaculate of bulls and within semen from one bull (P <0.05) as secondary effect were found.
To maintain good fertilization ability of semen during cryopreservation is necessary to increase the spermatozoa resistance against cold shock using addition of correct concentration of LDL into the commercially used diluents AndroMed and Bioxcell. Subsequently the fertilization ability of insemination dose is influenced by cooling, the length of equilibration and freezing. The length of equilibration 120 minutes and more as well as gentle way of freezing according to freezing curve, which ensures a gradual decrease of temperature in freezing chamber provided the higher average spermatozoa motility and proportion of live spermatozoa.
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The use of biomass ash
Ochecová, Pavla ; Tlustoš, Pavel (advisor) ; Radim, Radim (referee)
One of the most frequently used sources of renewable energy is biomass, mainly wood biomass. Incineration is the most common technology utilizing the energy from biomass to produce heat. A byproduct of these technologies is ash, whose composition depends on the feedstock composition and the incineration technologies. Due to the high content of valuable nutrients in ash, one of the suitable option for ash utilization seems to be application into agricultural or forestry land. Therefore, it is necessary to test response of soils and plants and look for the most suitable combination of soil additive (biomass ash), and plants. Experimental part of PhD thesis was divided into the incubation experiment and the vegetation pot experiments. The incubation experiment: The efficiency of ash addition at two application rates was tested for nutrients enrichment in different soils within period of 56 days. The vegetation pot experiments: The two plants Triticum aestivum L: (three-year experiment) and Lolium perenne L. (one-year experiment) were planted in the 5L pots. Soils were treated with ash or ash combinated by superphoshate and flue gas desulfurization gypsum. For both plants, we evaluated the plant growth, biomass production and content of macro, micro and toxic elements in the biomass and in the soils.
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