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The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Czech Real Export
Jurečka, Peter ; Brůžek, Antonín (advisor) ; Zahradník, Petr (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the impact of real exchange rate volatility on real export of the Czech Republic. In the first part, theoretical aspects of this relationship are examined, explaining both - positive and negative ? effects on bilateral and aggregate trade flows. Further on, empirical data and econometric tools are employed to capture the relationship between real export and its main determinants for the case of Czech Republic in the past decade. After the brief theoretical introduction to time series econometrics, the particular export demand model is proposed and various cointegration techniques are explained and applied to examine the long-run equilibrium but also short-run dynamics.
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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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Empirical analysis of Okun’s law in Iceland
Zajíček, Zdeněk ; Slaný, Martin (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
This thesis deals with empirical analysis of Okuns law in Iceland. Okuns hypothesis of negative relationship between real GDP and the rate of unemployment is being tested on two models, difference and gap, using OLS estimation. Also there are two filtration methods used (Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King) for gap model estimation. The results of all models showed weak relationship of variables, but proved the hypothesis. In the following part, the same procedure is being used on Finlands data, to get comparison of coefficients. Results for Finland showed weaker bond of variables than in Iceland, but the Okuns hypothesis still holds. Last part is focused on finding the sensitivity of rate of unemployment to changes in added value of each economical sector in Iceland using the production approach model. This model gave inconclusive results due to insufficient data available.
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Do women with children have lower wage rate than childless women?
Lukášová, Nikola ; Brožová, Dagmar (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to demonstrate if women with children in the Czech Republic have a lower wage rate than childless women. The data from WageIndicator Foundation was processed by using the the least squares method. The conclusion is that motherhood has a negative impact on salaries. I also found that the depreciation of human capital influences only women with two or more children. It can be caused by the lenght of maternity leave. The main finding is that the wage penalty for motherhood actually exists. And the society and politicians should give the motherhood penalty more attention in the future.
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Analysis of real and nominal convergence of the Visegrad Group in the years 2000-2015
Wikturna, Jan ; Strejček, Ivo (advisor) ; Zamrazilová, Eva (referee)
This Bachelor thesis is focused on a macroeconomic analysis of the process of the real and nominal convergence of the Visegrad Group countries to the old member states of the European Union, called EU-15 during the period of 2000-2015. The objective of the analysis is to confirm or disprove the hypothesis that in the selected period there is a convergence of the economically backward V4 countries with the advanced EU-15 countries and to highlight the factors that are behind the narrowing of the gap in economics and price levels. The theoretical part deals with the ways in which we measure and compare the economic performance and economic level, and explains the different approaches of the problem of economic growth and the subsequent catching up effect. The practical part is focused on a comparison of elected macroeconomic indicators and reference is made to the selected factors to determine whether, and for what reasons, the economic convergence of these selected countries made towards the developed countries of the EU-15. The analytical part confirms the ongoing process of the real and nominal convergence throughout the period, but its course is varied during different times of the period. In conclusion, it is found that the rate varied by the convergence processes and in fact positively affected the V4 countries, that joined the European Union. The incoming dynamics of the convergence, especially the prices, were significantly disrupted by the economic crisis.
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The effect of investment in tertiary education on gross wages in the region Prague
Diessner, Daniel ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Babin, Jan (referee)
The aim of this work is to determine whether and how higher education affects gross wages. The theoretical part focuses on the theory of human capital, especially investment in education. The theory posits that a higher investment in human capital leads to higher yield, higher wages. The validity of this concept will be tested on the group of respondents who entered the labour market at the turn of millennium. Concentration of candidates with tertiary education in this period has risen considerably, which could cause an imbalance in the labour market. The practical part is based on the work of Mincer (1974). I used Mincer Earnings Function as a basis to build regression model. Partial aim is to prove the declining rate of return on investment in tertiary education using Mincer Equation.
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Fed's Easy Money Policy during Alan Greenspan's presidency in Board of Governors (1987-2006)
Mašek, František ; Johnson, Zdenka (advisor) ; Tajovský, Ladislav (referee)
The main theme of the work is the Fed's monetary policy during the time, when chairman of the Board of Governors was Alan Greenspan. The greatest attention is aimed at the influence of Fed's expansive monetary policy on the so-called dot-com bubble and later mortgage crisis, which subsequently developer into the financial crisis. Through a thorough analysis of many scientific papers written by known economists and my own analysis and evalution I opine that the effect of expansionary monetary policy on the bubble in technological assets and mortgage crisis is rather minor. Fed subordinated all actions to achieve its monetary policy objectives, so criticism of its conducted monetary policy is essentially a critique of these objectives as such. I consider the emergence of new technologies and the so-called theory of feedback as the main cause of dot-com bubble. In the mortgage crisis and subsequent financial crisis as main determinants I consider reluctance of goverment officials strongly regulate activities of investment banks and other investment companies, moral hazard, failure of rating agencies, and federal support for home ownership coupled with the deregulation of the financial sector.
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The impact of the economic cycle to finance the defense of the Czech republic in years 2004-2014
Heres, Ondřej ; Chmelová, Pavla (advisor) ; Strejček, Ivo (referee)
This bachelor work examines the impact of economic performance on financing the defense sector in the Czech Republic in the years 2004-2014. The main questions are whether this influence is clear and the extent to which is essential for funding this sector. The work also provides a basic overview about development and structure of the Ministry of Defence budget in these years. The theoretical part contains theories of business cycle and public sector and briefly introduces the basic institutions that are tasked to provide a defense. The analytic part analyzes the expenditures and revenues of the Ministry of Defence and assesses their mutual influence and simultaneously the influence of GDP on these indicators. To compare with previous findings, the GPD growth rate and the growth rate of defense expenditures in selected countries of NATO are analyzed in brief in the last chapter. While findings based on data from the Ministry of Defence have rather anticyclical development of defense expenditures, in selected countries of NATO, the development is more procyclical. It highlights the very ambiguous impact of the economic cycle on expenditures in the defense sector.
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Development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic between 2006-2016
Ditrichová, Gabriela ; Strejček, Ivo (advisor) ; Klement, Josef (referee)
This bachelor's thesis is focused on the development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic in the decade between 2006 and 2016. A strong economic growth between 2006 and 2007, which had positive effects in the mortgage loan market, was followed by a deep slump in the form of global financial crisis unleashed by speculations in the real estate market in the U.S. The main aim of the work is based on the development of mortgage interest rates and the significant factors that affect their amount - to verify or disprove the hypothesis that interest rates respond to changes of these factors. The results confirm the hypothesis only in certain areas. The influence of changes of interest rates has been proven in the case of inflation and discount rates by usage of the econometric model. Factors that have not shown a significant direct influence of interest rates may have an indirect influence on their change.
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The Controlling Study
Herda, Tomáš ; Mikovcová, Hana (advisor) ; Herda, Zdeněk (referee)
The main goal of this Diploma´s Thesis is to make a model for calculation of water and sewer rates for the company Vodovody a kanalizace Náchod, a.s. when sticking to the set criteria both from the side of VaK Náchod, a.s. and law regulations. Based on the theoretical part an analysis of customer sensitivity to the price changes using the data for last 20 years follows. Findings from the first two parts are used in risk analysis in next part. The created model calculates the water and sewer rates based on the information from the company accounting system in the way to generate sufficient financial resources to fulfill the renovation plan of infrastructural property plant and equipment and to transfer given amount to the company funds. In addition, the model monitors whether the legal condition of maximal allowable increase of profit per m3 is met. In the customer sensitivity to the price changes part the price elasticity of demand for water and sewer rates is calculated based on the data from 1995 to 2015. The assumption of inelastic demand is confirmed. Risk analysis part is deals with potential risk regarding the demand and prices. Potential impacts for the most significant risk are quantified. The analysis uses knowledge gained in the first two parts. It was confirmed that potential risks are exiting but do not have any significant impact on the going concern of VaK Náchod, a.s. The created model has been already used for the calculation of prices for the year 2017. Customer sensitivity analysis to the price changes and link to the potential risks is an additional information for VaK Náchod, a.s. which validates that nowadays, there are no significant threats which could affect the demand and water and sewer rates significantly.
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